Northwestern at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Duke -17 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Duke 38 - Northwestern: 14

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Duke -10.5 (SP+ DUKE -11)
Projected Score: NW: 19 - DUKE: 29 (47)
DUKE Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
NW Travel: 629 miles, 1 hrs behind

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.01	37%	17.8	38%	2.63	125	38%	210	2.67	.17	45%	26.3	46%	44%	4.03	40.8	2.5	1.5
DUKE	.24	44%	26.3	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	24.5	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.6	37.2%	2.67	2.5	19	335	125	210	3.2	51%	47%	38%	38%	18%	.01
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	19.3	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	26.3	28.8	45.1%	4.03	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	46%	44%	13%	.17
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	25.7	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	29:01	19	37%	49%	4.6	40.8	2.5	1.5	4.5	1.9	0	26.9
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	38%	39.1	125.1	3.2	11	-.04	2.63	67%	9%	0.86
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.16	74%	8%	0.92
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	47%	38%	20.4	34.8	210.3	6.1	10.3	10	17	.15	1.4	33%	21%	.04	9%	1.9
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.22	1.3	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.7
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.56 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -0.56 Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -1.4 Duke: 9.5

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 702.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.6
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 29
Northwestern 19

Projected Total Points: 47

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/06	Northwestern	20	Duke	26	Duke	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	37.5	Over
2023	09/16	Duke	38	Northwestern	14	Duke	Duke -17	Duke	48.0	Over
2022	09/10	Northwestern	23	Duke	31	Duke	Northwestern -10	Duke	56.5	Under
2021	09/18	Duke	30	Northwestern	23	Duke	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	50.0	Over
2018	09/08	Northwestern	7	Duke	21	Duke	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	47.5	Under
2017	09/09	Duke	41	Northwestern	17	Duke	Northwestern -1.5	Duke	54.5	Over
2016	09/17	Northwestern	24	Duke	13	Northwestern	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	44.0	Under
2015	09/19	Duke	10	Northwestern	19	Northwestern	Duke -2.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2008	09/06	Duke	20	Northwestern	24	Northwestern
2007	09/15	Northwestern	14	Duke	20	Duke
2003	09/20	Duke	10	Northwestern	28	Northwestern
2002	09/14	Northwestern	26	Duke	21	Northwestern
2001	09/22	Duke	7	Northwestern	44	Northwestern
2000	09/08	Northwestern	38	Duke	5	Northwestern

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	7	6	4 Overs
Northwestern	7	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 8	4 - 4	2 - 4	2 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 6	4 - 4	0 - 2	4 - 2

(#66) Northwestern Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.56 #66
Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30
Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #49
Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90

Team Profile

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Northwestern Ratings Matchup Duke

Power #66

#40

Off #79

#48

Def #66

#59

Talent #54

#48

SP+ #71

#29

SP+ Off #104

#53

SP+ Def #30

#25

Rematch from Week 3
Duke -17.0 (48.0)
Duke won vs Northwestern this year (38-14)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Northwestern last year (26-20)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2023 (38-14)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 85° - Wind: 8 mph

Team Information
Injuries: NW | DUKE
Depth Chart: NW | DUKE
Rosters: NW | DUKE

(#40) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25
Talent Rating: 702.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00

Team Profile

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Northwestern's OC Mike Bajakian

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sullivan	38	53	72%	474	3	3	8.9
Ryan Hilinski	9	15	60%	121	0	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Brendan Sullivan	47	151	4	3.2	30
Jacob Gill	5	13	0	2.6	9
A.J. Henning (Tr)	5	8	0	1.6	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning (Tr)	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Jacob Gill	35	411	2	11.7	59
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26

View Northwestern's Full Roster

Northwestern's DC Vacant

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Nigel Williams	53	0	0	0	2
Garnett Hollis Jr.	46	1	0	0	6
Jaheem Joseph	42	1	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Pearson	21	4	2	0	0
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Rod Heard	37	2	1	1	4
Grayson Metz	32	2	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garnett Hollis Jr.	46	1	0	0	6
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Rod Heard	37	2	1	1	4

Duke's OC Kevin Johns

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	269	403	67%	2861	21	8	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Riley Leonard	184	906	17	4.9	50
Jordan Waters	95	470	4	4.9	94

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Malik Bowen-Sims	20	203	0	10.2	42
Jordan Waters	15	167	1	11.1	24

View Duke's Full Roster

Duke's DC Tyler Santucci

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Michael Reese	44	5	3	0	0
Brandon Johnson	42	5	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Ryan Smith	22	8	4	2	2
Michael Reese	44	5	3	0	0
Aeneas Peebles	29	6	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7
Brandon Johnson	42	5	1	1	5