Duke at Middle Tennessee - 2024 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Duke -14.5 (51.0) (-625) Open: 0.0
Duke 45 - Middle Tennessee: 17

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MTSU 2nd straight Home Game
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Duke -26 (SP+ DUKE -30)
Projected Score: DUKE: 41 - MTSU: 15 (56)
DUKE Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
DUKE Travel: 416 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	34.6	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	29.4	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	22.4	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	30.9	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	32.5	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	24	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 360.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 Middle Tennessee: -21.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 Middle Tennessee: -24.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -21.84 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 193.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 41
Middle Tennessee 15

Projected Total Points: 56

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Middle Tennessee	17	Duke	45	Duke -14.5	Duke	51.0	Over
2019	09/14	Middle Tennessee	18	Duke	41	Duke -6.5	Duke	51.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	0	0	2 Overs
Duke	2	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0

(#50) DUKE at (#130) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#130
SP+SP+	#44	#131
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#132
OffenseOff	#90	#125
DefenseDef	#25	#129
Spec TeamsST	#68	#120
TalentTal	#58	#119
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#129
SuccessSuc	#69	#81
ExplosiveExp	#93	#23
PPAPPA	#64	#60
PowerPwr	#113	#131
SP+SP+	#71	#122
Pts POPPO	#31	#100
HavocHav	#22	#49

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#122	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#88
Run ExplRExp	#30	#13
PPAExp	#56	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#31
TackleTak	-	#83

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#66	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#47
PPAExp	#79	#96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#131
F7 HavocF7	#20	#65
DB HavocDB	#62	#31

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#25
SuccessSuc	#104	#86
ExplosiveExp	#14	#12
PPAPPA	#95	#52
PowerPwr	#105	#17
SP+SP+	#131	#31
Pts POPPO	#115	#43
HavocHav	#89	#71

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#77	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#69
Run ExplRExp	#28	#43
PPAExp	#93	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#65
TackleTak	-	#73

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#3
PPAExp	#84	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#136	#37
F7 HavocF7	#95	#82
DB HavocDB	#70	#56

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Duke 14.5 (51.0)
Duke won at Middle Tennessee this year (45-17)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (45-17)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3