Wake Forest at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils

Thursday, November 2nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Duke -6.5 (41.0) (-265) Open: -11.5 | 45.0
Duke 24 - Wake Forest: 21 (ACC)

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dave Clawson (62 - 53)
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
WAKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Duke -17 (SP+ DUKE -17)
Projected Score: WAKE: 12 - DUKE: 29 (41)
DUKE Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
WAKE Travel: 74 miles

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WAKE Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wake Forest's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Wake Forest vs Elon	-33.5	53.5	W 37 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/9	Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt	-9.5	55.0	W 36 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Wake Forest at Old Dominion	-13.5	60.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech	-3.5	58.5	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Wake Forest at Clemson	+21.0	53.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Wake Forest at Virginia Tech	+1.5	48.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/21	Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	45.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Wake Forest vs Florida State	+21.0	53.5	L 16 - 41	O	N
Thu 11/2	Wake Forest at Duke	+6.5	41.0	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Wake Forest vs NC State	-0.5	42.5	L 6 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/18	Wake Forest at Notre Dame	+22.5	47.5	L 7 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/25	Wake Forest at Syracuse	+3.0	43.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	#122 (.07)	41% (76)	20.3	42% (85)	2.97 (97)	130	42% (65)	196	3.03 (124)	#89 (.21)	41% (49)	27.2	40% (40)	42% (74)	4.25 (110)	38.8	1.8	1.3
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	26.9	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	19	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	#104 (.13)	42% (81)		43% (79)	3 (79)	131	41% (75)	240	3.2 (121)	#118 (.27)	51% (134)		48% (110)	53% (133)	4.12 (99)	45.9	1.8	1.4
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Offense	12	20.3	18.5	41.4%	3.03	1.8	20	326	130	196	3.3	54%	45%	42%	42%	24%	.07
DUKE Defense	13	19	13.1	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Defense	12	27.2	29.2	40.5%	4.25	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	42%	17%	.21
DUKE Offense	13	26.9	28.6	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wake Forest	12	29:05	19.9	34%	42%	4.1	38.8	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	1	30.7
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense	12	54% (35)	42% (85)	39	130.4	3.3	13 (108)	.02 (124)	2.97 (97)	63% (122)	15% (132)	0.79 (132)
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense	12	51% (79)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.06 (25)	3.11 (71)	64% (20)	11% (31)	0.89 (24)
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense	12	45% (101)	42% (65)	16	26.8	196	7.3	12.3	14 (106)	12 (85)	.19 (98)	1.6 (81)	31% (53)	29% (77)	.24 (96)	9% (131)	1.9 (110)
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense	12	48% (54)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.4 (120)	1.7 (113)	33% (53)	29% (46)	.4 (105)	5% (102)	2.3 (127)
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -7.40 #103
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 9.55 #123
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 10.54 #80
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Wake Forest's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Wake Forest's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #101
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -7.40 Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -7.5 Duke: 9.5

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.5
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Wake Forest's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 29
Wake Forest 12

Total Points: 41

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 21
Wake Forest 15

Total Points: 36

Based on Entire Season
Duke 28
Wake Forest 18

Total Points: 46

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.1

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Duke	49	Wake Forest	32	Duke -2.5	Duke	54.0	Over
2024	11/30	Wake Forest	17	Duke	23	Duke -3.5	Duke	53.5	Under
2023	11/02	Duke	24	Wake Forest	21	Duke -6.5	Wake Forest	41.0	Over
2022	11/26	Duke	34	Wake Forest	31	Wake Forest -3	Duke	67.0	Under
2021	10/30	Wake Forest	45	Duke	7	Wake Forest -16.5	Wake Forest	71.5	Under
2019	11/23	Wake Forest	39	Duke	27	Wake Forest -6.5	Wake Forest	50.0	Over
2018	11/24	Duke	7	Wake Forest	59	Duke -9.5	Wake Forest	61.5	Over
2017	11/25	Wake Forest	23	Duke	31	Wake Forest -10.5	Duke	59.0	Under
2016	09/10	Duke	14	Wake Forest	24	Duke -8.5	Wake Forest	45.5	Under
2015	11/28	Wake Forest	21	Duke	27	Duke -4	Duke	45.0	Over
2014	11/29	Duke	41	Wake Forest	21	Duke -18	Duke	0
2013	11/23	Wake Forest	21	Duke	28	Duke -5.5	Duke	0
2012	09/29	Wake Forest	27	Duke	34
2011	10/22	Duke	23	Wake Forest	24
2010	09/11	Wake Forest	54	Duke	48
2009	11/28	Duke	34	Wake Forest	45
2008	11/01	Wake Forest	33	Duke	30
2007	10/06	Duke	36	Wake Forest	41
2006	09/09	Wake Forest	14	Duke	13
2005	10/29	Duke	6	Wake Forest	44
2004	10/30	Wake Forest	24	Duke	22
2003	10/18	Duke	13	Wake Forest	42
2002	10/12	Wake Forest	36	Duke	10
2001	10/13	Duke	35	Wake Forest	42
2000	11/03	Wake Forest	28	Duke	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	9	7	5 Overs
Wake Forest	16	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	5 - 7	4 - 4	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	7 - 5	3 - 1	4 - 4

(#103) WAKE at (#40) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WAKE	DUKE
Power RatePwr	#103	#40
SP+SP+	#92	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#56	#61
OffenseOff	#63	#81
DefenseDef	#45	#43
Spec TeamsST	#44	#49
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#63	#69

Wake Forest Injury Report

Duke Injury Report

Wake Forest on Offense


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	DUKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#63	#43
SuccessSuc	#76	#86
ExplosiveExp	#123	#12
PPAPPA	#122	#52
PowerPwr	#123	#59
SP+SP+	#101	#25
Pts POPPO	#124	#43
HavocHav	#133	#71

Wake Forest Run Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#123	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	#85	#69
Run ExplRExp	#132	#43
PPAExp	#124	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#8	-
OL YdsOLY	#97	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#65
TackleTak	-	#89

Wake Forest Pass Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#65	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#81	#3
PPAExp	#98	#42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#29	#51
F7 HavocF7	#132	#82
DB HavocDB	#131	#56

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	WAKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#81	#45
SuccessSuc	#69	#49
ExplosiveExp	#93	#82
PPAPPA	#64	#89
PowerPwr	#48	#80
SP+SP+	#53	#66
Pts POPPO	#31	#110
HavocHav	#22	#61

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#61	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#40
Run ExplRExp	#30	#24
PPAExp	#56	#25
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#71
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#94
TackleTak	-	#16

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#66	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#113
PPAExp	#79	#120
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#62	#72
F7 HavocF7	#20	#31
DB HavocDB	#62	#102

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 43°

Rematch from Week 10
Duke -6.5 (41.0)
Duke won vs Wake Forest this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Wake Forest last year (23-17)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2023 (24-21)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2022 (34-31)

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mitch Griffis	123	207	59%	1539	9	8	7.4
Michael Kern	56	92	61%	645	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	137	586	5	4.3	42
Justice Ellison	120	548	1	4.6	51
Tate Carney	49	244	4	5.0	74
Mitch Griffis	106	128	2	1.2	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jahmal Banks	59	653	4	11.1	33
Taylor Morin	41	617	2	15.0	61
Ke'Shawn Williams	38	384	1	10.1	34
Wesley Grimes	20	339	4	17.0	49

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Hazen	86	9	1	3	0
Jacob Roberts (Tr)	82	10	6	3	1
Malik Mustapha	80	5	1	1	2
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	49	16	8	10	2
Jacob Roberts (Tr)	82	10	6	3	1
Kendron Wayman	35	4	2	4	2
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caelen Carson	42	1	0	0	6
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5
Nick Andersen	33	1	1	1	3

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	95	165	58%	1102	3	3	6.7
Grayson Loftis	91	163	56%	1006	8	4	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Waters	153	819	12	5.4	83
Jaquez Moore	116	674	6	5.8	58
Riley Leonard	58	352	4	6.1	44
Jaylen Coleman	46	165	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	62	835	8	13.5	49
Jalon Calhoun	50	666	4	13.3	69
Sahmir Hagans	30	260	0	8.7	23
Nicky Dalmolin	15	147	0	9.8	21

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Freeman	95	5	2	6	3
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6
Nick Morris Jr.	57	2	1	0	0
Dorian Mausi	56	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aeneas Peebles	42	9	5	4	2
R.J. Oben	15	6	5	5	1
Terry Moore	42	4	3	2	2
Brandon Johnson	49	8	2	3	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)	43	1	0	1	9
Chandler Rivers	47	3	0	1	7
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6