Wake Forest at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview
Wake Forest logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Thursday, November 2nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Duke -6.5 (41.0) (-265)  Open: -11.5 | 45.0
Duke 24 - Wake Forest: 21  (ACC)

 
Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dave Clawson (62 - 53)
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
WAKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Duke -17   (SP+ DUKE -17)

Projected Score: WAKE: 13 - DUKE: 30 (44)
DUKE Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
WAKE Travel: 74 miles
Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Wake Forest's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Wake Forest vs Elon-33.553.5W 37 - 17ON
Sat 9/9 Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt-9.555.0W 36 - 20OY
Sat 9/16 Wake Forest at Old Dominion-13.560.0W 27 - 24UN
Sat 9/23 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech-3.558.5L 16 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Wake Forest at Clemson+21.053.5L 12 - 17UY
Sat 10/14 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+1.548.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 10/21 Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh+3.045.0W 21 - 17UY
Sat 10/28 Wake Forest vs Florida State+21.053.5L 16 - 41ON
Thu 11/2 Wake Forest at Duke+6.541.0L 21 - 24OY
Sat 11/11 Wake Forest vs NC State-0.542.5L 6 - 26UN
Sat 11/18 Wake Forest at Notre Dame+22.547.5L 7 - 45ON
Sat 11/25 Wake Forest at Syracuse+3.043.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Duke's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/4 Duke vs Clemson+12.554.0W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Duke vs Lafayette-42.549.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Duke vs Northwestern-17.048.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 Duke at UConn-22.045.0W 41 - 7OY
Sat 9/30 Duke vs Notre Dame+5.552.5L 14 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Duke vs NC State-3.544.0W 24 - 3UY
Sat 10/21 Duke at Florida State+14.049.0L 20 - 38ON
Sat 10/28 Duke at Louisville+5.047.0L 0 - 23UN
Thu 11/2 Duke vs Wake Forest-6.541.0W 24 - 21ON
Sat 11/11 Duke at North Carolina+9.552.5L 45 - 47OY
Sat 11/18 Duke at Virginia-4.048.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/25 Duke vs Pittsburgh-4.540.5W 30 - 19OY
Sat 12/23 Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#122 (.07)41% (76)20.342% (85)2.97 (97)13042% (65)1963.03 (124)#89 (.21)41% (49)27.240% (40)42% (74)4.25 (110)38.81.81.3
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.942% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)1943% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Offense1220.318.541.4%3.031.8203261301963.354%45%42%42%24%.07
DUKE Defense131913.143.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Defense1227.229.240.5%4.251.3 - - - - - 51%48%40%42%17%.21
DUKE Offense1326.928.642%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wake Forest1229:0519.934%42%4.138.81.81.35.81.9130.7
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense1254% (35)42% (85)39130.43.313 (108).02 (124)2.97 (97)63% (122)15% (132)0.79 (132)
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense1251% (79)40% (40) - - - - .06 (25)3.11 (71)64% (20)11% (31)0.89 (24)
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense1245% (101)42% (65)1626.81967.312.314 (106)12 (85).19 (98)1.6 (81)31% (53)29% (77).24 (96)9% (131)1.9 (110)
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense1248% (54)42% (74) - - - - - - 8 (100).4 (120)1.7 (113)33% (53)29% (46).4 (105)5% (102)2.3 (127)
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -7.40 #103
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 9.55 #123
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 10.54 #80
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Wake Forest's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Wake Forest's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #101
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -7.40   Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: -7.5   Duke: 9.5




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.5
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Wake Forest's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 30
Wake Forest 13


Total Points: 44

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.1

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Wake Forest17Duke23DukeDuke -3.5Duke53.5Under
202311/02Duke24Wake Forest21DukeDuke -6.5Wake Forest41.0Over
202211/26Duke34Wake Forest31DukeWake Forest -3Duke67.0Under
202110/30Wake Forest45Duke7Wake ForestWake Forest -16.5Wake Forest71.5Under
201911/23Wake Forest39Duke27Wake ForestWake Forest -6.5Wake Forest50.0Over
201811/24Duke7Wake Forest59Wake ForestDuke -9.5Wake Forest61.5Over
201711/25Wake Forest23Duke31DukeWake Forest -10.5Duke59.0Under
201609/10Duke14Wake Forest24Wake ForestDuke -8.5Wake Forest45.5Under
201511/28Wake Forest21Duke27DukeDuke -4Duke45.0Over
201411/29Duke41Wake Forest21DukeDuke -18Duke0
201311/23Wake Forest21Duke28DukeDuke -5.5Duke0
201209/29Wake Forest27Duke34Duke
201110/22Duke23Wake Forest24Wake Forest
201009/11Wake Forest54Duke48Wake Forest
200911/28Duke34Wake Forest45Wake Forest
200811/01Wake Forest33Duke30Wake Forest
200710/06Duke36Wake Forest41Wake Forest
200609/09Wake Forest14Duke13Wake Forest
200510/29Duke6Wake Forest44Wake Forest
200410/30Wake Forest24Duke22Wake Forest
200310/18Duke13Wake Forest42Wake Forest
200210/12Wake Forest36Duke10Wake Forest
200110/13Duke35Wake Forest42Wake Forest
200011/03Wake Forest28Duke26Wake Forest
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke864 Overs
Wake Forest1655 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 134 - 73 - 41 - 3
Road Teams13 - 117 - 43 - 14 - 3

(#103) Wake Forest Info
Power Rating: -7.40 #103
Offense Rating: 9.55 #123
Defense Rating: 10.54 #80
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #101
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20


Wake Forest has lost 1 straight
Wake Forest has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 5 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Wake Forest Highlights
Wake Forest commits very few Penalties (#85)

Wake Forest Deficiencies
Wake Forest has a really bad Offense
Wake Forest has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Wake Forest Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Wake Forest offense is not Explosive (#9)
Wake Forest Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#103)
Wake Forest offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#116)
Wake Forest offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Wake Forest has a bad red zone defense (#49)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatDUKEWAKE
OverallOver#49#45
OffenseOff#71#58
DefenseDef#35#37
Special TeamsST#42#37
PassingPass#50#98
RushingRush#43#89
Run BlockRBLK#60#8
Pass BlockPBLK#54#27
Route RunningWR Rt#76#41
TacklingTkl#77#14
Run DefenseR Def#62#42
Pass Rush DefPRush#43#55
Coverage DefCov#22#50

Rematch from Week 10
Duke -6.5 (41.0)
Duke won vs Wake Forest this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Wake Forest last year (23-17)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2023 (24-21)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2022 (34-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: WAKE | DUKE
Depth Chart: WAKE | DUKE
Rosters: WAKE | DUKE
(#40) Duke Info
Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00


Duke has lost 2 straight
Duke has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Duke Highlights
Duke defense does not give up big plays (#126)

Duke Deficiencies


  
Wake Forest's OC Warren Ruggiero
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mitch Griffis12320759%1539987.4
Michael Kern569261%645427.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne13758654.342
Justice Ellison12054814.651
Tate Carney4924445.074
Mitch Griffis10612821.227
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jahmal Banks59653411.133
Taylor Morin41617215.061
Ke'Shawn Williams38384110.134
Wesley Grimes20339417.049

View Wake Forest's Full Roster
Wake Forest's DC Brad Lambert
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Hazen869130
Jacob Roberts (Tr)8210631
Malik Mustapha805112
Chelen Garnes612205
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jasheen Davis49168102
Jacob Roberts (Tr)8210631
Kendron Wayman354242
Chelen Garnes612205
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caelen Carson421006
Chelen Garnes612205
Nick Andersen331113

Duke's OC Kevin Johns
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard9516558%1102336.7
Grayson Loftis9116356%1006846.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Waters153819125.483
Jaquez Moore11667465.858
Riley Leonard5835246.144
Jaylen Coleman4616513.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore62835813.549
Jalon Calhoun50666413.369
Sahmir Hagans3026008.723
Nicky Dalmolin1514709.821

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Tyler Santucci
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Freeman955263
Jaylen Stinson793106
Nick Morris Jr.572100
Dorian Mausi564112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aeneas Peebles429542
R.J. Oben156551
Terry Moore424322
Brandon Johnson498234
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)431019
Chandler Rivers473017
Jaylen Stinson793106