Duke at Northwestern - 2024 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils vs Northwestern Wildcats

Friday, September 6th 2024 (9:00 PM EDT)
Northwestern -2.5 (37.5) (-130) Open: -2.5 | 36.5
Duke 26 - Northwestern: 20

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Duke -13 (SP+ DUKE -14)
Projected Score: DUKE: 29 - NW: 16 (45)
NW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 629 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Braun (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Northwestern's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-4.0	43.0	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Fri 9/6	Northwestern vs Duke	-2.5	37.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/14	Northwestern vs Eastern Illinois	-26.5	38.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/21	Northwestern at Washington	+11.5	42.5	L 5 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Northwestern vs Indiana	+12.5	40.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/11	Northwestern at Maryland	+11.0	45.0	W 37 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+9.5	42.5	L 3 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northwestern at Iowa	+16.5	38.5	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/2	Northwestern at Purdue	+3.0	44.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+28.0	43.5	L 7 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+10.5	35.5	L 6 - 50	O	N
Sat 11/30	Northwestern vs Illinois	+8.5	42.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	34.6	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	29.4	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	23.4	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	19.8	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2
NW Defense	13	19.8	12.4	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16
NW Offense	13	23.4	26.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 360.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 Northwestern: -9.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 Northwestern: -8.2

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -9.06 #100
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 11.29 #83
2024 Talent Rating: 367.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Northwestern's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Northwestern's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #124
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 29
Northwestern 16

Projected Total Points: 45

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/06	Northwestern	20	Duke	26	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	37.5	Over
2023	09/16	Duke	38	Northwestern	14	Duke -17	Duke	48.0	Over
2022	09/10	Northwestern	23	Duke	31	Northwestern -10	Duke	56.5	Under
2021	09/18	Duke	30	Northwestern	23	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	50.0	Over
2018	09/08	Northwestern	7	Duke	21	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	47.5	Under
2017	09/09	Duke	41	Northwestern	17	Northwestern -1.5	Duke	54.5	Over
2016	09/17	Northwestern	24	Duke	13	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	44.0	Under
2015	09/19	Duke	10	Northwestern	19	Duke -2.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2008	09/06	Duke	20	Northwestern	24
2007	09/15	Northwestern	14	Duke	20
2003	09/20	Duke	10	Northwestern	28
2002	09/14	Northwestern	26	Duke	21
2001	09/22	Duke	7	Northwestern	44
2000	09/08	Northwestern	38	Duke	5

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	7	2	4 Overs
Duke	7	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 8	4 - 4	2 - 4	2 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 6	4 - 4	0 - 2	4 - 2

(#50) DUKE at (#100) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#100
SP+SP+	#44	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#111
OffenseOff	#90	#131
DefenseDef	#25	#47
Spec TeamsST	#68	#123
TalentTal	#58	#52
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#82

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Northwestern Notes(8/4) Home games @ practice field. Wind factor
(12/21) Signed QB P Stone (SMU)
(11/18) QB Lausch tough vs OSU, Rgame abysmal, Def OK
(10/19) Off awful vs Wisc, 200 yds, 9 1st D, 2-14 3rd
(10/12) Killed MD. Tough, hard nosed. 4 TO's but Off bad
(10/11) OL bad in Run game, top 20 in Pass protection
(10/10) QB Lausch a big upgrade, genuine JAG QB
(9/10) QB: Jack Lausch replacing ineffective Mike Wright
(9/1) Rock fight 13-6 W over Mia Oh, QB Wright JAG
(8/28) QB battle (3 way), WR decent with exp.
(8/28) QB Wright (Miss St) seems to have won this job
(8/1) New OC Lujan (FCS/SDSU) v interesting hire
Northwestern Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#47
SuccessSuc	#69	#83
ExplosiveExp	#93	#6
PPAPPA	#64	#33
PowerPwr	#113	#83
SP+SP+	#71	#51
Pts POPPO	#31	#56
HavocHav	#22	#115

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#122	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#73
Run ExplRExp	#30	#31
PPAExp	#56	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#84
TackleTak	-	#102

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#66	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#9
PPAExp	#79	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#41
F7 HavocF7	#20	#105
DB HavocDB	#62	#101

Northwestern on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#25
SuccessSuc	#110	#86
ExplosiveExp	#108	#12
PPAPPA	#113	#52
PowerPwr	#125	#17
SP+SP+	#124	#31
Pts POPPO	#48	#43
HavocHav	#67	#71

Northwestern Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#129	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#69
Run ExplRExp	#128	#43
PPAExp	#120	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#65
TackleTak	-	#73

Northwestern Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#3
PPAExp	#100	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#37
F7 HavocF7	#88	#82
DB HavocDB	#23	#56

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Northwestern -2.5 (37.5)
Duke won at Northwestern this year (26-20)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Northwestern in 2024 (26-20)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2023 (38-14)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Lausch	159	296	54%	1714	7	8	5.8
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	126	501	6	4.0	44
Joseph Himon II	52	257	2	4.9	51
Jack Lausch	87	213	2	2.4	29
Caleb Komolafe	50	139	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26
Cam Porter	23	174	0	7.6	28

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Devin Turner	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	33	7	6	7	1
Anto Saka	15	5	4	4	0
Michael Kilbane	20	3	3	0	0
Mac Uihlein	84	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	53	4	0	0	10
Josh Fussell	39	1	0	0	5
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4