Duke at Northwestern - 2022 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, September 10th 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
Northwestern -10 (56.5)
Duke 31 - Northwestern: 23

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (31 - 27 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ DUKE -18.5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 23 - NW: 15 (38)
NW Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
DUKE Travel: 629 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (109 - 89)
Avg Score : 14 - 28 (13 - 31 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Duke vs Temple	-9.5	51.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Duke at Northwestern	+10.0	56.5	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Duke vs North Carolina A&T	-30.5	53.0	W 49 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/24	Duke at Kansas	+7.5	66.0	L 27 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/1	Duke vs Virginia	-2.0	55.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Duke at Georgia Tech	-3.5	54.0	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/15	Duke vs North Carolina	+7.0	70.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Duke at Miami	+10.0	59.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/4	Duke at Boston College	-11.5	47.0	W 38 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Duke vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Duke at Pittsburgh	+6.5	49.0	L 26 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Duke vs Wake Forest	+3.0	67.0	W 34 - 31	U	Y
Wed 12/28	Duke vs UCF	-3.5	63.0	W 30 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Northwestern's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Northwestern vs Nebraska	+12.0	52.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Northwestern vs Duke	-10.0	56.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/17	Northwestern vs Southern Illinois	-13.5	58.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Northwestern vs Miami (OH)	-7.5	50.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Northwestern at Penn State	+25.5	50.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Northwestern vs Wisconsin	+10.0	44.5	L 7 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Northwestern at Maryland	+14.0	51.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Northwestern at Iowa	+11.5	37.0	L 13 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/5	Northwestern vs Ohio State	+37.5	55.0	L 7 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Northwestern at Minnesota	+17.0	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/19	Northwestern at Purdue	+17.5	44.5	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Northwestern vs Illinois	+15.0	38.0	L 3 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.24	44%	32.8	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	22.1	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2
NW	.01	37%	13.8	38%	2.63	125	38%	210	2.67	.17	45%	28.3	46%	44%	4.03	40.8	2.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	32.8	31.2	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24
NW Defense	12	28.3	30.5	45.1%	4.03	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	46%	44%	13%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	22.1	26.8	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18
NW Offense	12	13.8	13	37.2%	2.67	2.5	19	335	125	210	3.2	51%	47%	38%	38%	18%	.01

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8
Northwestern	12	29:01	19	37%	49%	4.6	40.8	2.5	1.5	4.5	1.9	0	26.9

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06
NW Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.16	74%	8%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83
NW Offense	12	51%	38%	39.1	125.1	3.2	11	-.04	2.63	67%	9%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3
NW Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.22	1.3	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9
NW Offense	12	47%	38%	20.4	34.8	210.3	6.1	10.3	10	17	.15	1.4	33%	21%	.04	9%	1.9

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Duke's 2022 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #55
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #61
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #50

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: Northwestern: -4.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.0 Northwestern: -13.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -4.2 NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Northwestern's 2022 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #111
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #111
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #73

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Duke Scoring
Offense: 32.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.8

Duke's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 23
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 38

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 15
Northwestern 12

Total Points: 26

Based on Entire Season
Duke 31
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 50

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 13.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 13
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.5

Northwestern's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/06	Northwestern	20	Duke	26	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	37.5	Over
2023	09/16	Duke	38	Northwestern	14	Duke -17	Duke	48.0	Over
2022	09/10	Northwestern	23	Duke	31	Northwestern -10	Duke	56.5	Under
2021	09/18	Duke	30	Northwestern	23	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	50.0	Over
2018	09/08	Northwestern	7	Duke	21	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	47.5	Under
2017	09/09	Duke	41	Northwestern	17	Northwestern -1.5	Duke	54.5	Over
2016	09/17	Northwestern	24	Duke	13	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	44.0	Under
2015	09/19	Duke	10	Northwestern	19	Duke -2.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2008	09/06	Duke	20	Northwestern	24
2007	09/15	Northwestern	14	Duke	20
2003	09/20	Duke	10	Northwestern	28
2002	09/14	Northwestern	26	Duke	21
2001	09/22	Duke	7	Northwestern	44
2000	09/08	Northwestern	38	Duke	5

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	7	2	4 Overs
Duke	7	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 8	4 - 4	2 - 4	2 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 6	4 - 4	0 - 2	4 - 2

(#) DUKE at (#) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#55	#111
Perf GradeGrade	#49	#132
OffenseOff	#53	#123
DefenseDef	#55	#129
Spec TeamsST	#51	#61
TalentTal	#62	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Duke Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#61	#73
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#50	#118
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#39	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#99

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#131
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#102
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#123	#55
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#111	#50
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#134	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#76

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Northwestern -10.0 (56.5)
Duke won at Northwestern this year (31-23)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Northwestern last year (26-20)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2023 (38-14)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-23)

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Robb Smith (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD