Virginia Tech at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview
Virginia Tech logo Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Virginia Tech -2.5 (45.5) (-135)  Open: -2.5
Duke 31 - Virginia Tech: 28  (ACC)

 
Hokies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Brent Pry (10 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
VT coming off BYE
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Virginia Tech -3.5   (SP+ VT -4.5)

Projected Score: VT: 26 - DUKE: 23 (49)
VT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
VT Travel: 118 miles
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt-13.553.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/7 Virginia Tech vs Marshall-20.552.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 9/14 Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-15.547.5W 37 - 17OY
Sat 9/21 Virginia Tech vs Rutgers-3.045.0L 23 - 26ON
Fri 9/27 Virginia Tech at Miami+17.555.5L 34 - 38OY
Sat 10/5 Virginia Tech at Stanford-9.550.0W 31 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17 Virginia Tech vs Boston College-8.547.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 10/26 Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-11.052.0W 21 - 6UY
Sat 11/2 Virginia Tech at Syracuse-3.554.0L 31 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Virginia Tech vs Clemson+6.554.5L 14 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Virginia Tech at Duke-2.545.5L 28 - 31ON
Sat 11/30 Virginia Tech vs Virginia-4.544.5W 37 - 17OY
Fri 1/3 Virginia Tech vs Minnesota+10.043.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 3, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia Tech's Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VT#75 (.18)42% (87)28.244% (66)3.01 (76)17339% (102)1784.22 (40)#18 (.09)39% (34)22.842% (56)36% (15)2.97 (7)46.31.21.8
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)26.335% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)24.541% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VT#75 (.18)42% (87)44% (66)3.01 (76)17339% (102)1784.22 (40)#18 (.09)39% (34)42% (56)36% (15)2.97 (7)46.31.21.8
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VT Offense1328.231.341.6%4.221.2183511731784.955%44%44%39%18%.18
DUKE Defense1324.519.337.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VT Defense1322.827.538.9%2.971.8 - - - - - 52%47%42%36%20%.09
DUKE Offense1326.325.738.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia Tech1327:1817.937%42%5.546.31.21.85.92.7130.2
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VT Offense1355% (32)44% (66)35.2173.24.927 (30).21 (31)3.01 (76)77% (38)13% (124)1.1 (23)
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VT Defense1352% (88)42% (56) - - - - .05 (32)2.86 (45)71% (55)12% (17)0.85 (14)
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VT Offense1344% (105)39% (102)14.624.7177.97.212.215 (98)8 (40).17 (100)1.5 (87)34% (109)27% (112).27 (94)5% (49)2.2 (26)
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VT Defense1347% (44)36% (15) - - - - - - 14 (23).18 (41)1.8 (116)34% (41)25% (6).26 (47)8% (14)2.3 (127)
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)

Virginia Tech's Power Ratings
Virginia Tech's Power Rating: 10.35 #29
Virginia Tech's Offense Rating: 22.24 #48
Virginia Tech's Defense Rating: 2.91 #10
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Virginia Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Virginia Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #30
Virginia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Virginia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 10.35   Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 10.0   Duke: 5.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Virginia Tech Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Virginia Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia Tech 26
Duke 23


Total Points: 49

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Duke31Virginia Tech28DukeVirginia Tech -2.5Duke45.5Over
202211/12Duke24Virginia Tech7DukeDuke -10Duke50.0Under
202111/13Virginia Tech48Duke17Virginia TechVirginia Tech -13.5Virginia Tech50.5Over
202010/03Duke31Virginia Tech38Virginia TechVirginia Tech -11.5Duke54.5Over
201909/27Virginia Tech10Duke45DukeVirginia Tech -2.5Duke51.5Over
201809/29Duke14Virginia Tech31Virginia TechDuke -6.5Virginia Tech52.0Under
201710/28Virginia Tech24Duke3Virginia TechVirginia Tech -17Virginia Tech48.0Under
201611/05Duke21Virginia Tech24Virginia TechVirginia Tech -10Duke55.5Under
201510/24Virginia Tech43Duke45DukeVirginia Tech -6Duke45.5Over
201411/15Duke16Virginia Tech17Virginia TechDuke -7Virginia Tech0
201310/26Virginia Tech10Duke13DukeVirginia Tech -13.5Duke0
201210/13Virginia Tech41Duke20Virginia Tech
201110/29Duke10Virginia Tech14Virginia Tech
201010/23Virginia Tech44Duke7Virginia Tech
200910/03Duke26Virginia Tech34Virginia Tech
200811/22Virginia Tech14Duke3Virginia Tech
200710/13Duke14Virginia Tech43Virginia Tech
200609/16Virginia Tech36Duke0Virginia Tech
200509/10Duke0Virginia Tech45Virginia Tech
200409/18Virginia Tech41Duke17Virginia Tech
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke575 Overs
Virginia Tech1544 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 116 - 53 - 53 - 0
Road Teams11 - 95 - 60 - 35 - 3

(#29) Virginia Tech Info
Power Rating: 10.35 #29
Offense Rating: 22.24 #48
Defense Rating: 2.91 #10
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Great in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Virginia Tech has lost 2 straight
Virginia Tech has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Virginia Tech Notes
(11/25) 3 str L's, QB Watson awful vs Duke, Rgame bad
(11/9) Schlee cannot play and Off is fucking awful
(11/3) Brent Pry now 1-11 in one score games
(11/3) Drones/Tuten DNP vs Syracuse?
(11/2) Flags, TOs huge in Cuse gag. Off 450+ in L
(11/1) 3-0 in Oct, avg 20 ppg margin of victory
(10/19) Lost 12 straight games vs P4 in non-con!
(10/17) Ran over BC, 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Turnaround?
(10/17) 2-9 3rd down, 9 pen/88 yds. Allow BC back
(10/17) RB Tuten special, 266 yds, 14 ypc, 3 TD (BC)

Virginia Tech Highlights
Virginia Tech Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Virginia Tech defense is really good in red zone (#134)
Virginia Tech has a good pass defense (#133)
Virginia Tech Front 7 is disruptive (#61)
Virginia Tech Secondary is very good (#115)
Virginia Tech defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Virginia Tech Deficiencies
Virginia Tech pass game is really bad (#123)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatDUKEVT
OverallOver#43#45
OffenseOff#73#72
DefenseDef#19#44
Special TeamsST#56#20
PassingPass#47#65
RushingRush#90#27
Run BlockRBLK#67#76
Pass BlockPBLK#60#72
Route RunningWR Rt#57#76
TacklingTkl#64#15
Run DefenseR Def#49#47
Pass Rush DefPRush#32#20
Coverage DefCov#8#68

Rematch from Week 13
Virginia Tech 2.5 (45.5)
Duke won vs Virginia Tech this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Virginia Tech last year (31-28)
Duke beat Virginia Tech in 2022 (24-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: VT | DUKE
Depth Chart: VT | DUKE
Rosters: VT | DUKE
(#50) Duke Info
Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Duke has won 1 straight
Duke has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see

Duke Highlights
Duke is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Duke Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Duke has a really good defense (#64)
Duke defense does not give up big plays (#126)
Duke defense is really good in red zone (#128)
Duke has a good pass defense (#102)
Duke Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#8)
Duke Defensive Line is very good (#25)
Duke Front 7 is disruptive (#19)
Duke Secondary is very good (#128)

Duke Deficiencies
Duke Can Not Run the Ball (#98)
Duke offense is really bad (#43)
Duke Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#86)
Duke run game is really bad (#79)
Duke offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
Virginia Tech's OC Tyler Bowen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kyron Drones13622461%15621067.0
William Watson III345859%481128.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bhayshul Tuten1831158156.383
Kyron Drones9833763.453
Jeremiah Coney3217905.647
Malachi Thomas4316513.820
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Stephen Gosnell28506118.149
Jaylin Lane38466212.366
Ali Jennings15373324.965
Da'Quan Felton32360211.355

View Virginia Tech's Full Roster
Virginia Tech's DC Chris Marve
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Keller832021
Caleb Woodson728242
Mose Phillips III654103
Keonta Jenkins6510134
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antwuan Powell42191680
Aeneas Peebles (Tr)296333
Cole Nelson363360
Wilfried Pene335341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Jones401008
Mansoor Delane541007
Dorian Strong320006

Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore55861815.758
Eli Pancol60798913.386
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)1004142
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Terry Moore717105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Vincent Anthony25105133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Stinson674238
Chandler Rivers548138
Joshua Pickett384007