Virginia Tech at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Virginia Tech -2.5 (45.5) (-135) Open: -2.5
Duke 31 - Virginia Tech: 28 (ACC)

Hokies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Brent Pry (10 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VT coming off BYE
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Virginia Tech -3.5 (SP+ VT -4.5)
Projected Score: VT: 27 - DUKE: 23 (50)
VT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
VT Travel: 118 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VT Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt	-13.5	53.5	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/7	Virginia Tech vs Marshall	-20.5	52.5	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/14	Virginia Tech at Old Dominion	-15.5	47.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Virginia Tech vs Rutgers	-3.0	45.0	L 23 - 26	O	N
Fri 9/27	Virginia Tech at Miami	+17.5	55.5	L 34 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Virginia Tech at Stanford	-9.5	50.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Virginia Tech vs Boston College	-8.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech	-11.0	52.0	W 21 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Virginia Tech at Syracuse	-3.5	54.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Virginia Tech vs Clemson	+6.5	54.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Virginia Tech at Duke	-2.5	45.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/30	Virginia Tech vs Virginia	-4.5	44.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Fri 1/3	Virginia Tech vs Minnesota	+10.0	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia Tech's Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VT	#75 (.18)	42% (87)	28.2	44% (66)	3.01 (76)	173	39% (102)	178	4.22 (40)	#18 (.09)	39% (34)	22.8	42% (56)	36% (15)	2.97 (7)	46.3	1.2	1.8
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)	26.3	35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)	24.5	41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VT	#75 (.18)	42% (87)		44% (66)	3.01 (76)	173	39% (102)	178	4.22 (40)	#18 (.09)	39% (34)		42% (56)	36% (15)	2.97 (7)	46.3	1.2	1.8
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VT Offense	13	28.2	31.3	41.6%	4.22	1.2	18	351	173	178	4.9	55%	44%	44%	39%	18%	.18
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	19.3	37.6%	3.19	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	34%	23%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VT Defense	13	22.8	27.5	38.9%	2.97	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	36%	20%	.09
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	25.7	38.6%	3.7	1.4	16	315	89	226	3.3	44%	56%	35%	42%	19%	.12

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia Tech	13	27:18	17.9	37%	42%	5.5	46.3	1.2	1.8	5.9	2.7	1	30.2
Duke	13	25:05	16.3	29%	38%	5.1	48.9	1.4	2	8.5	3.2	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VT Offense	13	55% (32)	44% (66)	35.2	173.2	4.9	27 (30)	.21 (31)	3.01 (76)	77% (38)	13% (124)	1.1 (23)
DUKE Defense	13	52% (81)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.06 (35)	2.74 (28)	59% (6)	15% (2)	0.91 (38)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VT Defense	13	52% (88)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.05 (32)	2.86 (45)	71% (55)	12% (17)	0.85 (14)
DUKE Offense	13	44% (110)	35% (129)	27.5	89.2	3.3	13 (105)	-.07 (133)	2.47 (131)	78% (32)	10% (78)	0.74 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VT Offense	13	44% (105)	39% (102)	14.6	24.7	177.9	7.2	12.2	15 (98)	8 (40)	.17 (100)	1.5 (87)	34% (109)	27% (112)	.27 (94)	5% (49)	2.2 (26)
DUKE Defense	13	48% (53)	34% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.06 (7)	1.5 (39)	34% (35)	29% (41)	.27 (53)	7% (28)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VT Defense	13	47% (44)	36% (15)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.18 (41)	1.8 (116)	34% (41)	25% (6)	.26 (47)	8% (14)	2.3 (127)
DUKE Offense	13	56% (24)	42% (69)	19.6	32.5	226.1	7	11.5	26 (26)	12 (85)	.28 (55)	1.6 (56)	32% (73)	29% (98)	.3 (82)	9% (129)	2 (78)

Virginia Tech's Power Ratings
Virginia Tech's Power Rating: 10.35 #29
Virginia Tech's Offense Rating: 22.24 #48
Virginia Tech's Defense Rating: 2.91 #10
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Virginia Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Virginia Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #30
Virginia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Virginia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 10.35 Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia Tech: 10.0 Duke: 5.6

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Virginia Tech Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Virginia Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia Tech 27
Duke 23

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 28
Virginia Tech 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Virginia Tech 26
Duke 26

Total Points: 52

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Duke	31	Virginia Tech	28	Virginia Tech -2.5	Duke	45.5	Over
2022	11/12	Duke	24	Virginia Tech	7	Duke -10	Duke	50.0	Under
2021	11/13	Virginia Tech	48	Duke	17	Virginia Tech -13.5	Virginia Tech	50.5	Over
2020	10/03	Duke	31	Virginia Tech	38	Virginia Tech -11.5	Duke	54.5	Over
2019	09/27	Virginia Tech	10	Duke	45	Virginia Tech -2.5	Duke	51.5	Over
2018	09/29	Duke	14	Virginia Tech	31	Duke -6.5	Virginia Tech	52.0	Under
2017	10/28	Virginia Tech	24	Duke	3	Virginia Tech -17	Virginia Tech	48.0	Under
2016	11/05	Duke	21	Virginia Tech	24	Virginia Tech -10	Duke	55.5	Under
2015	10/24	Virginia Tech	43	Duke	45	Virginia Tech -6	Duke	45.5	Over
2014	11/15	Duke	16	Virginia Tech	17	Duke -7	Virginia Tech	0
2013	10/26	Virginia Tech	10	Duke	13	Virginia Tech -13.5	Duke	0
2012	10/13	Virginia Tech	41	Duke	20
2011	10/29	Duke	10	Virginia Tech	14
2010	10/23	Virginia Tech	44	Duke	7
2009	10/03	Duke	26	Virginia Tech	34
2008	11/22	Virginia Tech	14	Duke	3
2007	10/13	Duke	14	Virginia Tech	43
2006	09/16	Virginia Tech	36	Duke	0
2005	09/10	Duke	0	Virginia Tech	45
2004	09/18	Virginia Tech	41	Duke	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	5	7	5 Overs
Virginia Tech	15	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 11	6 - 5	3 - 5	3 - 0
Road Teams	11 - 9	5 - 6	0 - 3	5 - 3

(#29) VT at (#50) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VT	DUKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#29	#50
SP+SP+	#30	#44
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#59
OffenseOff	#88	#90
DefenseDef	#60	#25
Spec TeamsST	#22	#68
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#48	#65

Virginia Tech Notes(12/23) Signed OL coach Moore (WVU cast off/Troy/La T)
(11/25) 3 str L's, QB Watson awful vs Duke, Rgame bad
(11/9) Schlee cannot play and Off is fucking awful
(11/3) Brent Pry now 1-11 in one score games
(11/3) Drones/Tuten DNP vs Syracuse?
(11/2) Flags, TOs huge in Cuse gag. Off 450+ in L
(11/1) 3-0 in Oct, avg 20 ppg margin of victory
(10/19) Lost 12 straight games vs P4 in non-con!
(10/17) Ran over BC, 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Turnaround?
(10/17) 2-9 3rd down, 9 pen/88 yds. Allow BC back
(10/17) RB Tuten special, 266 yds, 14 ypc, 3 TD (BC)
(9/27) Great fight @ Miami. Rgame 200 yds (6.2 ypc)
Virginia Tech Injury Report

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Virginia Tech on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	VT Off	DUKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#88	#25
SuccessSuc	#87	#16
ExplosiveExp	#67	#22
PPAPPA	#75	#10
PowerPwr	#48	#17
SP+SP+	#41	#31
Pts POPPO	#40	#17
HavocHav	#111	#2

Virginia Tech Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	VT Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#40	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#66	#51
Run ExplRExp	#23	#38
PPAExp	#31	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#76	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#90	#16
TackleTak	-	#73

Virginia Tech Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	VT Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#87	#39
PPAExp	#100	#7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#82	#37
F7 HavocF7	#124	#2
DB HavocDB	#49	#28

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	VT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#60
SuccessSuc	#116	#34
ExplosiveExp	#84	#56
PPAPPA	#109	#18
PowerPwr	#113	#10
SP+SP+	#71	#36
Pts POPPO	#90	#7
HavocHav	#115	#10

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	VT Def
Run GameRun	#122	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#56
Run ExplRExp	#131	#14
PPAExp	#133	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#45
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#45
TackleTak	-	#17

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	VT Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#15
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#116
PPAExp	#55	#41
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#68	#22
F7 HavocF7	#78	#17
DB HavocDB	#129	#14

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

VT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 49°

Rematch from Week 13
Virginia Tech 2.5 (45.5)
Duke won vs Virginia Tech this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Virginia Tech last year (31-28)
Duke beat Virginia Tech in 2022 (24-7)

VT's OC Tyler Bowen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyron Drones	136	224	61%	1562	10	6	7.0
William Watson III	34	58	59%	481	1	2	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bhayshul Tuten	183	1158	15	6.3	83
Kyron Drones	98	337	6	3.4	53
Jeremiah Coney	32	179	0	5.6	47
Malachi Thomas	43	165	1	3.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Stephen Gosnell	28	506	1	18.1	49
Jaylin Lane	38	466	2	12.3	66
Ali Jennings	15	373	3	24.9	65
Da'Quan Felton	32	360	2	11.3	55

View Virginia Tech's Full Roster

VT's DC Chris Marve (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Keller	83	2	0	2	1
Caleb Woodson	72	8	2	4	2
Mose Phillips III	65	4	1	0	3
Keonta Jenkins	65	10	1	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antwuan Powell	42	19	16	8	0
Aeneas Peebles (Tr)	29	6	3	3	3
Cole Nelson	36	3	3	6	0
Wilfried Pene	33	5	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaylen Jones	40	1	8
Mansoor Delane	54	1	7
Dorian Strong	32	0	6

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7