West Virginia at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview
West Virginia logo   West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears  Baylor logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
West Virginia -6.5 (53.5) (-470)  Open: -6.5
West Virginia 34 - Baylor: 31  (Big 12)

 
Mountaineers (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Neal Brown (24 - 26)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BAY is playing their 6th straight game
WVU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: West Virginia -10.5  (SP+ WVU -14)
Projected Score: WVU: 33 - BAY: 22 (55)
WVU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
WVU Travel: 1112 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
West Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 West Virginia at Penn State+21.048.0L 15 - 38ON
Sat 9/9 West Virginia vs Duquesne-38.555.5W 56 - 17OY
Sat 9/16 West Virginia vs Pittsburgh-2.548.0W 17 - 6UY
Sat 9/23 West Virginia vs Texas Tech+6.053.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/30 West Virginia at TCU+14.052.0W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 West Virginia at Houston-3.049.5L 39 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 West Virginia vs Oklahoma State-3.048.0L 34 - 48ON
Sat 10/28 West Virginia at UCF+6.559.5W 41 - 28OY
Sat 11/4 West Virginia vs BYU-13.048.5W 37 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 West Virginia at Oklahoma+13.559.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 11/18 West Virginia vs Cincinnati-4.552.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/25 West Virginia at Baylor-6.553.5W 34 - 31ON
Wed 12/27 West Virginia vs North Carolina-4.562.0W 30 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule
Baylor's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Baylor vs Texas State-26.558.5L 31 - 42ON
Sat 9/9 Baylor vs Utah+7.046.5L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Baylor vs Long Island University-44.054.0W 30 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Baylor vs Texas+17.549.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 9/30 Baylor at UCF+8.056.5W 36 - 35OY
Sat 10/7 Baylor vs Texas Tech+2.559.5L 14 - 39UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Baylor at Cincinnati+2.551.5W 32 - 29OY
Sat 10/28 Baylor vs Iowa State+3.047.0L 18 - 30ON
Sat 11/4 Baylor vs Houston-3.058.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/11 Baylor at Kansas State+20.555.5L 25 - 59ON
Sat 11/18 Baylor at TCU+13.062.0L 17 - 42UN
Sat 11/25 Baylor vs West Virginia+6.553.5L 31 - 34OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WVU.2143%21.845%3.0817242%2274.2.2144%30.845%43%3.8531.51.3
BAY.2245%31.147%3.2118244%2314.35.245%32.645%44%4.12411.41.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WVU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WVU Offense1221.820.843.3%4.21.5233981722274.648%51%45%42%15%.21
BAY Defense1332.627.944.7%4.121.5 - - - - - 51%49%45%44%16%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WVU Defense1230.833.544.3%3.81.3 - - - - - 48%52%45%43%15%.21
BAY Offense1331.129.645.1%4.351.4234141822314.455%44%47%44%13%.22

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
West Virginia1231:192341%69%6.4531.51.35.72.2226.9
Baylor1331:3022.740%64%4.8411.41.54.61.8230.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WVU Offense1248%45%37.2171.54.624.23.0870%8%1.01
BAY Defense1351%45% - - - - .133.0576%8%0.88
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WVU Defense1248%45% - - - - .133.0776%10%0.99
BAY Offense1355%47%41.2182.44.434.213.2179%9%1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WVU Offense1251%42%21.335.5226.76.410.72012.241.530%34%.327%1.8
BAY Defense1349%44% - - - - - - 13.281.529%37%.517%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WVU Defense1252%43% - - - - - - 4.31.630%32%.364%2.1
BAY Offense1344%44%1930.2231.57.712.21911.291.530%33%.344%2

West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 3.47  #45
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.84  #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 11.21  #88
2023 Talent Rating: 666.23  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #43
West Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
West Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4  #44
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #38
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
West Virginia: 3.47   Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
West Virginia: 5.4   Baylor: -8.8




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875  #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22  #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47  #127
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.5

West Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
West Virginia 33
Baylor 22

Projected Total Points: 55
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16West Virginia35Baylor49Baylor -2Baylor60.0Over
202311/25Baylor31West Virginia34West Virginia -6.5Baylor53.5Over
202210/13West Virginia43Baylor40Baylor -3.0West Virginia55.0Over
202110/09Baylor45West Virginia20Baylor -1.0Baylor45.0Over
202010/03West Virginia27Baylor21Baylor -1.5West Virginia54.5Under
201910/31Baylor17West Virginia14Baylor -19West Virginia57.0Under
201810/25West Virginia58Baylor14West Virginia -14.5West Virginia67.0Over
201710/21Baylor36West Virginia38West Virginia -10.5Baylor67.5Over
201612/03West Virginia24Baylor21West Virginia -14.5Baylor69.0Under
201510/17Baylor62West Virginia38Baylor -18Baylor75.5Over
201410/18West Virginia41Baylor27Baylor -9.5West Virginia0
201310/05Baylor73West Virginia42Baylor -30Baylor0
201209/29West Virginia70Baylor63
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor577 Overs
West Virginia853 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 39 - 34 - 25 - 1
Road Teams3 - 103 - 91 - 52 - 4

(#45) WVU at (#108) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWVUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #108
SP+SP+ #44 #98
Perf GradeGrade #46 #100
OffenseOff #31 #82
DefenseDef #85 #123
Spec TeamsST #127 #18
TalentTal #50 #46
Blue ChipsBC% #43 #38
West Virginia on Offense
CategoryCat
WVU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #31 #123
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #32 #127
SP+SP+ #38 #105
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
West Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
WVU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #6 #126
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #103
West Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCat
WVU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #28 #116
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #8 #96
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCatBAY OffWVU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #82 #85
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #99 #88
SP+SP+ #78 #63
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffWVU Def
Run GameRun #84 #61
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #70
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCatBAY OffWVU Def
Pass GamePass #82 #99
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #12 #85
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

WVU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
West Virginia 6.5 (53.5)
West Virginia won at Baylor this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat West Virginia in 2024 (49-35)
West Virginia beat Baylor in 2023 (34-31)

  
WVU's OC Chad Scott (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Greene14727853%24061648.7
Nicco Marchiol305357%247234.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jahiem White10984247.753
CJ Donaldson171798114.732
Garrett Greene120772136.448
Justin Johnson3815013.930
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Carter (Tr)27501218.649
Hudson Clement22480421.870
Kole Taylor (Tr)35444412.743
Preston Fox26368214.234

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC ShaDon Brown (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lee Kpogba978381
Anthony Wilson (Tr)802004
Beanie Bishop (Tr)6710020
Ben Cutter566201
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Bartlett497521
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)236410
Lee Kpogba978381
Edward Vesterinen285310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beanie Bishop (Tr)6710020
Marcis Floyd505267
Malachi Ruffin370005

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen18429862%21881337.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)6611756%864247.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)12551914.232
Dawson Pendergrass7933854.331
Richard Reese6630624.628
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)356912.031
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Monaray Baldwin38623416.471
Drake Dabney33552516.763
Ketron Jackson (Tr)28489117.555
Jake Roberts (Tr)23231110.037

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones8413415
Devyn Bobby741016
Devin Lemear401003
Caden Jenkins371003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones8413415
Byron Vaughns (Tr)308301
TJ Franklin308331
Gabe Hall184241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devyn Bobby741016
Matt Jones8413415
Corey Gordon311004