Baylor at Cincinnati - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -2.5 (51.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Baylor 32 - Cincinnati: 29 (Big 12)

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CIN 2nd straight Home Game
BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: Cincinnati -6 (SP+ CIN -2)
Projected Score: BAY: 25 - CIN: 31 (56)
CIN Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 881 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearcats (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky	-21.5	57.5	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	+6.5	44.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)	-14.5	44.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/23	Cincinnati vs Oklahoma	+13.0	58.0	L 6 - 20	U	N
Fri 9/29	Cincinnati at BYU	+1.0	47.5	L 27 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-4.0	42.5	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/21	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-2.5	51.5	L 29 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/28	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	+7.0	53.0	L 13 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/4	Cincinnati vs UCF	+3.5	59.5	L 26 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Cincinnati at Houston	+3.5	53.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Cincinnati at West Virginia	+4.5	52.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Cincinnati vs Kansas	+7.5	59.5	L 16 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	.22	45%	31.1	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	32.6	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5
CIN	.18	40%	30.3	39%	3.01	130	41%	243	3.8	.09	37%	25.6	40%	35%	3.52	64.4	1.1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CIN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	31.1	33.2	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22
CIN Defense	13	25.6	19.6	37.2%	3.52	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	40%	35%	20%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	32.6	39.2	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2
CIN Offense	13	30.3	34.4	39.5%	3.8	1.1	19	372	130	243	4	46%	53%	39%	41%	17%	.18

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2
Cincinnati	13	28:14	18.5	36%	65%	7.5	64.4	1.1	1.8	6.7	2.7	3	29.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08
CIN Defense	13	54%	40%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.01	82%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88
CIN Offense	13	46%	39%	32.8	129.7	4	19	.1	3.01	68%	10%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2
CIN Defense	13	45%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.12	1.6	34%	28%	.3	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2
CIN Offense	13	53%	41%	19.2	32.1	242.7	7.6	12.7	22	8	.28	1.6	35%	32%	.37	6%	1.9

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -7.95 Cincinnati: -2.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -8.8 Cincinnati: -7.2

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: -2.32 #80
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 18.94 #45
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 14.72 #117
2023 Talent Rating: 663.68 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Cincinnati's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Cincinnati's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Cincinnati 31
Baylor 25

Projected Total Points: 56

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Cincinnati	41	Baylor	20	Cincinnati -3.5	Cincinnati	68.5	Under
2023	10/21	Cincinnati	29	Baylor	32	Cincinnati -2.5	Baylor	51.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	1	1	1 Overs
Baylor	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#108) BAY at (#80) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	CIN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#108	#80
SP+SP+	#98	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#89
OffenseOff	#82	#43
DefenseDef	#123	#127
Spec TeamsST	#18	#123
TalentTal	#46	#51
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#51

Baylor Injury Report

Cincinnati Injury Report

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	CIN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#127
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#99	#117
SP+SP+	#78	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#84	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#80

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#12	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Cincinnati on Offense


CategoryCat	CIN Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#123
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#45	#127
SP+SP+	#95	#105
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Cincinnati Run Game


CategoryCat	CIN Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#33	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Cincinnati Pass Game


CategoryCat	CIN Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Cincinnati -2.5 (51.5)
Baylor won at Cincinnati this year (32-29)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Baylor last year (41-20)
Baylor beat Cincinnati in 2023 (32-29)

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Emory Jones (Tr)	197	322	61%	2219	18	10	6.9
Brady Lichtenberg	19	34	56%	252	2	1	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	192	1047	5	5.5	68
Emory Jones (Tr)	155	560	4	3.6	25
Myles Montgomery	66	428	3	6.5	63
Ryan Montgomery	54	329	1	6.1	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson (Tr)	58	782	3	13.5	55
Braden Smith (Tr)	43	557	4	13.0	48
Chamon Metayer	23	258	5	11.2	35
Dee Wiggins (Tr)	20	246	2	12.3	39

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn Pace	80	11	2	6	5
Byron Threats	57	3	1	1	6
Dorian Jones (Tr)	56	3	1	1	2
Taj Ward	55	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daniel Grzesiak (Tr)	46	7	4	3	3
Dontay Corleone	39	7	3	2	1
Eric Phillips	14	6	2	5	1
Jowon Briggs	27	6	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Byron Threats	57	3	1	1	6
Jordan Young (Tr)	34	1	0	0	6
Justin Harris	31	3	0	1	6