Kansas State at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kansas State logo Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -4.5 (59.5) (-192)  Open: -5.5
Baylor 35 - Kansas State: 34  (Big 12)

 
Wildcats (6 - 6) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (47 - 28)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#82)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
BAY is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -0  (SP+ KSU -6)

Projected Score: KSU: 29 - BAY: 29 (58)
BAY Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
KSU Travel: 529 miles
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Kansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas State vs Iowa State-2.551.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 8/30 Kansas State vs North Dakota-27.555.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 9/6 Kansas State vs Army-17.048.5L 21 - 24UN
Fri 9/12 Kansas State at Arizona-1.555.5L 17 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kansas State vs UCF-5.548.5W 34 - 20OY
Sat 10/4 Kansas State at Baylor+4.559.5L 34 - 35OY
Sat 10/11 Kansas State vs TCU+3.054.5W 41 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas State at Kansas+3.555.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 11/1 Kansas State vs Texas Tech+7.551.5L 20 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-19.550.5W 14 - 6UN
Sat 11/22 Kansas State at Utah+18.552.5L 47 - 51OY
Sat 11/29 Kansas State vs Colorado-16.550.5W 24 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KSU#46 (.2)41% (92)29.441% (94)2.82 (96)17241% (82)1984.15 (33)#57 (.13)39% (44)26.741% (61)38% (35)3.45 (52)38.31.32.2
BAY#50 (.2)45% (39)31.147% (38)3.09 (42)14244% (40)3103.69 (70)#81 (.18)44% (105)32.646% (108)43% (91)4.3 (125)61.420.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KSU#17 (.3)44% (55)46% (42)3.37 (14)19042% (68)1964.08 (53)#29 (.11)36% (6)34% (4)38% (32)3.54 (43)41.31.21.1
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KSU Offense1229.430.840.8%4.151.3173711721985.251%47%41%41%18%.2
BAY Defense1232.627.944.3%4.30.9 - - - - - 56%42%46%43%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KSU Defense1226.726.439.5%3.452.2 - - - - - 52%47%41%38%17%.13
BAY Offense1231.129.645%3.692254511423104.240%59%47%44%15%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kansas State1229:0017.237%56%4.138.31.32.262.3230.2
Baylor1229:1524.838%53%661.420.941128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KSU Offense1251% (51)41% (94)33.2172.35.223 (88).18 (41)2.82 (96)67% (101)11% (115)1.2 (3)
BAY Defense1256% (129)46% (108) - - - - .14 (92)3.15 (111)89% (134)7% (131)0.96 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KSU Defense1252% (94)41% (61) - - - - .12 (79)2.73 (38)70% (55)10% (49)1.12 (127)
BAY Offense1240% (129)47% (38)34.1141.64.212 (88).17 (43)3.09 (42)77% (33)8% (38)0.9 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KSU Offense1247% (86)41% (82)1728.5198.3711.718 (42)7 (20).25 (66)1.6 (39)34% (120)31% (66).28 (79)7% (91)1.8 (118)
BAY Defense1242% (9)43% (91) - - - - - - 9 (55).25 (72)1.4 (14)28% (123)29% (64).24 (52)6% (87)1.7 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KSU Defense1247% (53)38% (35) - - - - - - 13 (38).15 (31)1.6 (87)33% (38)28% (52).24 (51)7% (37)2.1 (96)
BAY Offense1259% (8)44% (40)25.842.5309.67.31231 (3)12 (88).25 (69)1.5 (80)31% (58)33% (30).42 (28)6% (84)2.1 (34)

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 8.09  #49
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 11.85  #52
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 830.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Kansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.0 - 6.0
Kansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.5  #47
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #45
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kansas State: 8.09   Baylor: 7.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kansas State: 6.5   Baylor: 0.7




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 7.505  #44
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.84  #35
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.53  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.7  #69
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #30
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Kansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 29
Baylor 29


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 30
Kansas State 22

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Kansas State 30
Baylor 29

Total Points: 59
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Baylor35Kansas State34Baylor -4.5Kansas State59.5Over
202311/11Kansas State59Baylor25Kansas State -20.5Kansas State55.5Over
202211/12Baylor3Kansas State31Baylor -2.5Kansas State52.0Under
202111/20Kansas State10Baylor20Kansas State -2.5Baylor49.5Under
202011/28Baylor32Kansas State31Baylor -5.5Kansas State44.5Over
201910/05Kansas State12Baylor31Baylor -1Baylor48.5Under
201810/06Baylor37Kansas State34Baylor -3.5Kansas State54.0Over
201709/30Kansas State33Baylor20Kansas State -15Baylor57.5Under
201611/19Baylor21Kansas State42Kansas State -2Kansas State58.5Over
201511/05Kansas State24Baylor31Baylor -18.5Kansas State67.0Under
201412/06Baylor38Kansas State27Baylor -9Baylor0
201310/12Kansas State25Baylor35Baylor -10.5Kansas State0
201211/17Baylor52Kansas State24
201110/01Kansas State36Baylor35
201010/23Baylor47Kansas State42
200710/27Kansas State51Baylor13
200609/30Baylor17Kansas State3
200311/01Kansas State38Baylor10
200210/26Baylor10Kansas State44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor1145 Overs
Kansas State885 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 74 - 82 - 62 - 2
Road Teams7 - 128 - 42 - 26 - 2

(#49) KSU at (#44) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatKSUBAY
Power RatePwr #49 #44
SP+SP+ #47 #69
Perf GradeGrade #67 #77
OffenseOff #67 #57
DefenseDef #84 #101
Spec TeamsST #14 #11
TalentTal #46 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #49
Kansas State Notes
(12/11) OC Matt Wells was a disaster hire for K St
(12/3) HC Klieman retiring. A&M OC Colin Klen new HC
(11/24) RB Joe Jackson torched Utah for 293 yds, still lost
(10/22) RB Dylan Edwards out again vs Kansas, shocker...
(10/12) Off mat W over TCU, forced 3 TOs. Still not good
(10/5) Blew 14 pt 4Q lead @ Baylor. Season turner/ender?
(10/4) QB2 Blake Barnett is clearly not ready
(9/13) Broken team, QB Johnson unplayable, Off awful
(9/13) Offense is terrible, can't run, throw, block
(9/10) OT George Fitzpatrick out until mid Oct
(7/30) S Maldonado (Az, inj LY) was captain, big add
(6/6) LB unit ranked top 10 via PFF, have depth
Kansas State Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Kansas State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #101
SuccessSuc #92 #105
ExplosiveExp #8 #16
PPAPPA #46 #81
PowerPwr #52 #56
SP+SP+ #45 #108
Pts POPPO #33 #125
HavocHav #109 #127
Kansas State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #102 #120
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #108
Run ExplRExp #3 #69
PPAExp #41 #92
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #96 #111
Stuff RateStuff #118 #125
TackleTak -  #39
Kansas State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KSU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #62 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #91
Pass ExplPExl #39 #14
PPAExp #66 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #62 #111
F7 HavocF7 #115 #131
DB HavocDB #91 #87
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffKSU Def
Perf GradePerf #57 #84
SuccessSuc #39 #44
ExplosiveExp #53 #113
PPAPPA #50 #57
PowerPwr #35 #39
SP+SP+ #30 #58
Pts POPPO #70 #52
HavocHav #57 #48
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #92 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #61
Run ExplRExp #96 #127
PPAExp #43 #79
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLY #42 #38
Stuff RateStuff #28 #56
TackleTak -  #103
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #60 #76
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #35
Pass ExplPExl #80 #87
PPAExp #69 #31
Pass Block/RushP Blk #89 #100
F7 HavocF7 #38 #49
DB HavocDB #84 #37
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

KSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Baylor -4.5 (59.5)
Baylor won vs Kansas State this year (35-34)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2023 (59-25)
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2022 (31-3)

  
KSU's OC Matt Wells (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Avery Johnson20434160%23801867.0
Linkon Cure010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Joe Jackson16991185.480
Avery Johnson10947784.458
Dylan Edwards3420526.075
Antonio Martin1912916.837
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayce Brown41712517.478
Jaron Tibbs (Tr)47595312.738
Garrett Oakley38389610.235
Jerand Bradley (Tr)13184214.265

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Desmond Purnell729464
Austin Romaine667172
VJ Payne593003
Zashon Rich5731010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Stufflebean225550
Ryan Davis146414
Tobi Osunsanmi206420
Desmond Purnell729464
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zashon Rich5731010
Desmond Purnell729464
Donovan McIntosh330004

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004