Baylor at West Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview

Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (4:00 PM EST)
Baylor -2 (60.0) (-130) Open: -1.5
Baylor 49 - West Virginia: 35 (Big 12)

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: Baylor -6.5 (SP+ BAY -6.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 33 - WVU: 27 (60)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
BAY Travel: 1112 miles, 1 hrs behind

Mountaineers (6 - 7) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Neal Brown (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (23 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
WVU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	West Virginia vs Penn State	+7.5	48.0	L 12 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/7	West Virginia vs UAlbany	-38.5	53.5	W 49 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/14	West Virginia at Pittsburgh	-2.5	60.5	L 34 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/21	West Virginia vs Kansas	-1.5	56.0	W 32 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	West Virginia at Oklahoma State	+2.5	65.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	West Virginia vs Iowa State	+3.0	54.0	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/19	West Virginia vs Kansas State	+2.5	56.5	L 18 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/26	West Virginia at Arizona	+5.5	51.5	W 31 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	West Virginia at Cincinnati	+5.5	54.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/16	West Virginia vs Baylor	+2.0	60.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/23	West Virginia vs UCF	+3.0	60.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	West Virginia at Texas Tech	+2.5	61.5	L 15 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/17	West Virginia vs Memphis	+5.0	60.0	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	31.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	32.6	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3
WVU	#35 (.27)	45% (37)	21.8	47% (29)	3.24 (42)	229	43% (60)	206	4.04 (54)	#78 (.19)	42% (61)	30.8	44% (76)	40% (47)	4.16 (106)	46.4	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WVU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15
WVU Defense	13	30.8	28.2	41.5%	4.16	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	44%	40%	19%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32
WVU Offense	13	21.8	22.7	45.1%	4.04	1	22	435	229	206	5.3	62%	38%	47%	43%	14%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6
West Virginia	13	32:30	22.2	40%	53%	5.1	46.4	1	1.2	5.6	2	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)
WVU Defense	13	47% (31)	44% (76)	-	-	-	-	.16 (86)	3.08 (63)	76% (91)	11% (49)	1.02 (83)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)
WVU Offense	13	62% (6)	47% (29)	43.5	228.9	5.3	32 (10)	.26 (15)	3.24 (42)	67% (108)	9% (41)	1.13 (16)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)
WVU Defense	13	52% (109)	40% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.26 (56)	1.6 (82)	32% (57)	30% (71)	.36 (89)	8% (10)	2.1 (73)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)
WVU Offense	13	38% (127)	43% (60)	13.7	25.5	205.7	8.1	15	18 (81)	7 (21)	.32 (55)	1.7 (38)	31% (51)	36% (20)	.47 (25)	5% (47)	2 (75)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 West Virginia: 3.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 West Virginia: 2.1

West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 3.57 #63
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 23.43 #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 16.47 #118
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
West Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
West Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.1 #65
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #46
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 33
West Virginia 27

Projected Total Points: 60

West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.7
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

West Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	West Virginia	35	Baylor	49	Baylor -2	Baylor	60.0	Over
2023	11/25	Baylor	31	West Virginia	34	West Virginia -6.5	Baylor	53.5	Over
2022	10/13	West Virginia	43	Baylor	40	Baylor -3.0	West Virginia	55.0	Over
2021	10/09	Baylor	45	West Virginia	20	Baylor -1.0	Baylor	45.0	Over
2020	10/03	West Virginia	27	Baylor	21	Baylor -1.5	West Virginia	54.5	Under
2019	10/31	Baylor	17	West Virginia	14	Baylor -19	West Virginia	57.0	Under
2018	10/25	West Virginia	58	Baylor	14	West Virginia -14.5	West Virginia	67.0	Over
2017	10/21	Baylor	36	West Virginia	38	West Virginia -10.5	Baylor	67.5	Over
2016	12/03	West Virginia	24	Baylor	21	West Virginia -14.5	Baylor	69.0	Under
2015	10/17	Baylor	62	West Virginia	38	Baylor -18	Baylor	75.5	Over
2014	10/18	West Virginia	41	Baylor	27	Baylor -9.5	West Virginia	0
2013	10/05	Baylor	73	West Virginia	42	Baylor -30	Baylor	0
2012	09/29	West Virginia	70	Baylor	63

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
West Virginia	8	5	7 Overs
Baylor	5	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	9 - 3	4 - 2	5 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 10	3 - 9	1 - 5	2 - 4

(#22) BAY at (#63) WVU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	WVU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#22	#63
SP+SP+	#38	#65
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#70
OffenseOff	#26	#35
DefenseDef	#110	#114
Spec TeamsST	#2	#20
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#62

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

West Virginia Notes(12/29) Hired DC Z Alley (Okl, Jax St DC)
(12/11) Hired HC Rodriguez (Former HC, Jax St 3 yrs)
(12/1) HC Brown fired after 37-35 in 6 years
(11/23) Rgame 200 yds, 3.7 ypc, Greene meh in UCF W
(11/18) Bad L vs Baylor, Def torched, QB Green was bad
(11/16) QB Greene back for Baylor, Marchiol was better
(11/13) 2 cons road W's, lucky vs Cincy, OG's by 180 yds
(11/7) QB change: Marchiol takes over for Greene full time
(10/29) DC Lesley fired, LB/ST Koonz will take over
(10/27) QB Marhiol good vs Az, 18/22, 2 TDs. Rgame good
(10/19) Killed by K St pass game (300 yds)? Bad team
(10/13) Even w/ ISU, 3 TO's, Greene just not good enough
West Virginia Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	WVU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#114
SuccessSuc	#102	#61
ExplosiveExp	#57	#91
PPAPPA	#90	#78
PowerPwr	#20	#118
SP+SP+	#25	#87
Pts POPPO	#118	#106
HavocHav	#98	#18

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	WVU Def
Run GameRun	#37	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#76
Run ExplRExp	#53	#83
PPAExp	#101	#86
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#63
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#63
TackleTak	-	#11

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	WVU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#82
PPAExp	#90	#56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#102
F7 HavocF7	#103	#49
DB HavocDB	#77	#10

West Virginia on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#35	#110
SuccessSuc	#37	#118
ExplosiveExp	#52	#120
PPAPPA	#35	#130
PowerPwr	#32	#30
SP+SP+	#46	#63
Pts POPPO	#54	#116
HavocHav	#37	#55

West Virginia Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#66	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#29	#98
Run ExplRExp	#16	#121
PPAExp	#15	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#72	#35
TackleTak	-	#87

West Virginia Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#38	#107
PPAExp	#55	#131
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#11	#113
F7 HavocF7	#41	#53
DB HavocDB	#47	#75

Program Comparison
WVU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 51°

Rematch from Week 12
Baylor 2.0 (60.0)
Baylor won at West Virginia this year (49-35)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat West Virginia in 2024 (49-35)
West Virginia beat Baylor in 2023 (34-31)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4

WVU's OC Chad Scott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Greene	189	316	60%	2300	15	12	7.3
Nicco Marchiol	37	56	66%	434	5	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jahiem White	149	845	7	5.7	55
Garrett Greene	133	751	6	5.6	56
CJ Donaldson	163	734	11	4.5	48
Nicco Marchiol	40	120	2	3.0	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hudson Clement	51	741	5	14.5	44
Kole Taylor	43	448	3	10.4	39
Traylon Ray	28	426	4	15.2	54
Rodney Gallagher	26	288	3	11.1	33

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC ShaDon Brown (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Wilson	102	0	0	0	3
Josiah Trotter	93	4	1	5	2
Trey Lathan	79	9	2	3	0
Tyrin Bradley	56	8	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Jackson (Tr)	40	14	7	1	0
Sean Martin	23	6	4	5	1
Hammond Russell IV	17	4	3	3	0
Trey Lathan	79	9	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garnett Hollis Jr. (Tr)	46	1	0	0	6
Tyrin Bradley	56	8	2	2	4
Anthony Wilson	102	0	0	0	3