Baylor at West Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at West Virginia MountaineersWest Virginia logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (4:00 PM EST)
Baylor -2 (60.0) (-130)  Open: -1.5
Baylor 49 - West Virginia: 35  (Big 12)

 
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: Baylor -6.5   (SP+ BAY -6.5)

Projected Score: BAY: 34 - WVU: 27 (61)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
BAY Travel: 1112 miles, 1 hrs behind
Mountaineers (6 - 7) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Neal Brown (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 32 (28 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23UY
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35OY
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17UY
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 West Virginia vs Penn State+7.548.0L 12 - 34UN
Sat 9/7 West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.553.5W 49 - 14ON
Sat 9/14 West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.560.5L 34 - 38ON
Sat 9/21 West Virginia vs Kansas-1.556.0W 32 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.565.0W 38 - 14UY
Sat 10/12 West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.054.0L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/19 West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.556.5L 18 - 45ON
Sat 10/26 West Virginia at Arizona+5.551.5W 31 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.554.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 11/16 West Virginia vs Baylor+2.060.0L 35 - 49ON
Sat 11/23 West Virginia vs UCF+3.060.0W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/30 West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.561.5L 15 - 52ON
Tue 12/17 West Virginia vs Memphis+5.060.0L 37 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#90 (.15)39% (102)34.440% (107)2.99 (91)11539% (90)2633.12 (118)#130 (.32)46% (118)26.746% (98)47% (123)4.36 (116)28.91.31.3
WVU#35 (.27)45% (37)29.247% (29)3.24 (42)22943% (60)2064.04 (54)#78 (.19)42% (61)31.944% (76)40% (47)4.16 (106)46.411.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WVU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1234.43239.5%3.121.3203781152633.346%54%40%39%18%.15
WVU Defense1331.931.341.5%4.161.2 - - - - - 47%52%44%40%19%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1226.730.745.7%4.361.3 - - - - - 54%45%46%47%17%.32
WVU Offense1329.227.645.1%4.041224352292065.362%38%47%43%14%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1231:4219.836%46%4.128.91.31.351.5228.6
West Virginia1332:3022.240%53%5.146.411.25.62131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1246% (99)40% (107)34.4114.83.313 (108).09 (101)2.99 (91)74% (63)12% (103)1.03 (53)
WVU Defense1347% (31)44% (76) - - - - .16 (86)3.08 (63)76% (91)11% (49)1.02 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1254% (114)46% (98) - - - - .24 (115)3.27 (103)70% (51)11% (53)1.16 (121)
WVU Offense1362% (6)47% (29)43.5228.95.332 (10).26 (15)3.24 (42)67% (108)9% (41)1.13 (16)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1254% (31)39% (90)21.936.82637.11215 (96)7 (21).22 (90)1.6 (79)34% (109)26% (103).18 (111)6% (77)1.8 (123)
WVU Defense1352% (109)40% (47) - - - - - - 11 (53).26 (56)1.6 (82)32% (57)30% (71).36 (89)8% (10)2.1 (73)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1245% (21)47% (123) - - - - - - 7 (111).47 (131)1.7 (107)30% (101)38% (129).52 (130)6% (75)2.2 (102)
WVU Offense1338% (127)43% (60)13.725.5205.78.11518 (81)7 (21).32 (55)1.7 (38)31% (51)36% (20).47 (25)5% (47)2 (75)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17   West Virginia: 3.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4   West Virginia: 2.1




West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 3.57 #63
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 23.43 #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 16.47 #118
2024 Talent Rating: 732.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
West Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
West Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.1 #65
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #46
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 34
West Virginia 27


Projected Total Points: 61
West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

West Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16West Virginia35Baylor49BaylorBaylor -2Baylor60.0Over
202311/25Baylor31West Virginia34West VirginiaWest Virginia -6.5Baylor53.5Over
202210/13West Virginia43Baylor40West VirginiaBaylor -3.0West Virginia55.0Over
202110/09Baylor45West Virginia20BaylorBaylor -1.0Baylor45.0Over
202010/03West Virginia27Baylor21West VirginiaBaylor -1.5West Virginia54.5Under
201910/31Baylor17West Virginia14BaylorBaylor -19West Virginia57.0Under
201810/25West Virginia58Baylor14West VirginiaWest Virginia -14.5West Virginia67.0Over
201710/21Baylor36West Virginia38West VirginiaWest Virginia -10.5Baylor67.5Over
201612/03West Virginia24Baylor21West VirginiaWest Virginia -14.5Baylor69.0Under
201510/17Baylor62West Virginia38BaylorBaylor -18Baylor75.5Over
201410/18West Virginia41Baylor27West VirginiaBaylor -9.5West Virginia0
201310/05Baylor73West Virginia42BaylorBaylor -30Baylor0
201209/29West Virginia70Baylor63West Virginia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
West Virginia857 Overs
Baylor573 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 39 - 34 - 25 - 1
Road Teams3 - 103 - 91 - 52 - 4

(#22) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
Baylor     Ratings Matchup     West Virginia
Power #22
#63
Off #20
#32
Def #30
#118
Talent #39
#48
SP+ #38
#65
SP+ Off #25
#46
SP+ Def #63
#87

Rematch from Week 12
Baylor 2.0 (60.0)
Baylor won at West Virginia this year (49-35)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat West Virginia last year (49-35)
West Virginia beat Baylor in 2023 (34-31)
West Virginia beat Baylor in 2022 (43-40)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 51°

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | WVU
Depth Chart: BAY | WVU
Rosters: BAY | WVU
(#63) West Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.57 #63
Offense Rating: 23.43 #32
Defense Rating: 16.47 #118
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.1 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #46
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87
Talent Rating: 732.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.6 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.74 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


West Virginia Notes
(12/11) Hired HC Rodriguez (Former HC, Jax St 3 yrs)
(12/1) HC Brown fired after 37-35 in 6 years
(11/23) Rgame 200 yds, 3.7 ypc, Greene meh in UCF W
(11/18) Bad L vs Baylor, Def torched, QB Green was bad
(11/16) QB Greene back for Baylor, Marchiol was better
(11/13) 2 cons road W's, lucky vs Cincy, OG's by 180 yds
(11/7) QB change: Marchiol takes over for Greene full time
(10/29) DC Lesley fired, LB/ST Koonz will take over
(10/27) QB Marhiol good vs Az, 18/22, 2 TDs. Rgame good
(10/19) Killed by K St pass game (300 yds)? Bad team


  
Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Richard Reese5824114.228
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)45567512.635
Michael Trigg (Tr)30395313.242
Bryson Washington2221719.923

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Jackie Marshall415250
Carl Williams IV366101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas978420
Steve Linton (Tr)267330
Jackie Marshall415250
Carl Williams IV366101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)1310010
Caden Jenkins250004
Corey Gordon332002

West Virginia's OC Chad Scott
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nicco Marchiol375666%434527.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jahiem White14984575.755
CJ Donaldson163734114.548
Nicco Marchiol4012023.019
Rodney Gallagher165103.210
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Hudson Clement51741514.544
Traylon Ray28426415.254
Rodney Gallagher26288311.133
Justin Robinson (Tr)16244315.350

View West Virginia's Full Roster
West Virginia's DC Jeff Koonz (Int)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Trotter934152
Trey Lathan799230
Reid Carrico (Tr)542040
Garnett Hollis Jr. (Tr)461006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Jackson (Tr)4014710
Hammond Russell IV174330
Trey Lathan799230
Asani Redwood173131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Garnett Hollis Jr. (Tr)461006
Dontez Fagan (Tr)370003
Josiah Trotter934152