BYU at Baylor - 2021 Matchup Preview
BYU logo (#18)BYU Cougars at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, October 16th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -5.5 (52.5)
Baylor 38 - BYU: 24

 
Cougars (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (41 - 26)
Avg Score : 33 - 25 (30 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 7th straight game
BYU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -6  (SP+ BAY -7)
Projected Score: BYU: 26 - BAY: 29 (55)
BAY Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
BYU Travel: 1009 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
BYU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 BYU vs Arizona-13.554.0W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/11 BYU vs Utah+7.050.0W 26 - 17UY
Sat 9/18 BYU vs Arizona State+3.550.5W 27 - 17UY
Sat 9/25 BYU vs South Florida-23.554.5W 35 - 27ON
Fri 10/1 BYU at Utah State-9.066.0W 34 - 20UY
Sat 10/9 BYU vs Boise State-6.058.0L 17 - 26UN
Sat 10/16 BYU at Baylor+5.552.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 10/23 BYU at Washington State-3.556.5W 21 - 19UN
Sat 10/30 BYU vs Virginia-2.566.5W 66 - 49OY
Sat 11/6 BYU vs Idaho State-36.555.0W 59 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20 BYU at Georgia Southern-20.057.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 11/27 BYU at USC-8.565.5W 35 - 31ON
Sat 12/18 BYU vs UAB-7.054.5L 28 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU.3650%33.152%3.2918949%2644.24.2347%24.846%47%4.0741.50.91.5
BAY.2745%31.646%3.2621944%2034.1537%18.335%39%3.0448.41.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1333.129.650.3%4.240.9234531892645.152%47%52%49%14%.36
BAY Defense1418.320.337%3.041.8 - - - - - 47%52%35%39%20%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1324.82546.5%4.071.5 - - - - - 51%49%46%47%16%.23
BAY Offense1431.637.945%41.1214222192035.459%41%46%44%15%.27

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1329:1723.246%67%5.141.50.91.54.91.5128.5
Baylor1431:2320.742%63%5.448.41.11.87.43.1331.3
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1352%52%36.91895.130.343.2978%9%1.1
BAY Defense1447%35% - - - - .12.7675%13%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1351%46% - - - - .193.0771%9%1
BAY Offense1459%46%40.9219.35.429.283.2674%11%1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1347%49%19.529.9264.18.813.6265.41.627%31%.295%2
BAY Defense1452%39% - - - - - - 19.221.635%26%.217%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1349%47% - - - - - - 15.281.328%30%.337%1.9
BAY Offense1441%44%16.926.1203.17.812247.261.629%32%.334%1.8

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: NR
BYU's Offense Rating: NR
BYU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
BYU's 2021 Expected Record: -
BYU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9  #44
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2  #14
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #78

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU:    Baylor: 10.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 8.9   Baylor: 15.6




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 10.3 NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


BYU Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 25

BYU's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 29
BYU 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 29
BYU 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 30
BYU 26

Total Points: 56
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.9
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Baylor28BYU34Baylor -3BYU47.0Over
202209/10BYU26Baylor20BYU -2.5BYU54.5Under
202110/16Baylor38BYU24Baylor -5.5Baylor52.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor112 Overs
BYU221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#) BYU at (#) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBYUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #44 #15
Perf GradeGrade #21 #13
OffenseOff #3 #9
DefenseDef #85 #27
Spec TeamsST #32 #76
TalentTal #94 #41
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
BYU on Offense
CategoryCat
BYU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #14 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
BYU Run Game
CategoryCat
BYU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #42 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #9 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
BYU Pass Game
CategoryCat
BYU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #21 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #2 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCatBAY OffBYU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #85
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #78
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffBYU Def
Run GameRun #22 #100
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #103
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCatBAY OffBYU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #43
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #3 #120
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BYU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 74° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Baylor -5.5 (52.5)
Baylor won vs BYU this year (38-24)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat Baylor last year (34-28)
BYU beat Baylor in 2022 (26-20)

  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Ilaisa Tuiaki (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD