Baylor at Houston - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 28th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium - Houston, TX

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HOU is playing their 4th straight game
BAY is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Houston -7 (SP+ HOU -6)
Projected Score: BAY: 27 - HOU: 34 (60)
HOU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 165 miles

Cougars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#29)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
HOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Baylor at Auburn	+13
Sat 9/12	Baylor vs Prairie View A&M	-25.5
Sat 9/19	Baylor vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5
Sat 9/26	Baylor vs Colorado	-12.5
Sat 10/3	Baylor at Arizona State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Baylor vs TCU	+3.5
Sat 10/24	Baylor at Kansas	+2
Sat 10/31	Baylor at UCF	-2
Sat 11/7	Baylor vs Iowa State	-0.5
Sat 11/14	Baylor at BYU	+16
Sat 11/21	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+22
Sat 11/28	Baylor at Houston	+7

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Houston's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Houston vs Oregon State	-24.5
Sat 9/12	Houston vs Southern	-30
Sat 9/19	Houston at Texas Tech	+22.5
Sat 9/26	Houston at Georgia Southern	-14.5
Sat 10/3	Houston vs UCF	-11.5
Sat 10/10	Houston at Kansas State	+2.5
Sat 10/17	Houston vs Oklahoma State	-17.5
Sat 10/24	Houston at Utah	+12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Houston vs Cincinnati	-5.5
Sat 11/14	Houston at Colorado	-12
Sat 11/21	Houston at West Virginia	-6.5
Sat 11/28	Houston vs Baylor	-7

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#49 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (41)	310	3.69 (69)	#81 (.18)	44% (104)	32.6	46% (107)	43% (93)	4.3 (124)	61.4	2	0.9
HOU	#102 (.12)	42% (74)	29.1	40% (99)	2.61 (125)	179	45% (35)	216	3.55 (83)	#44 (.11)	42% (65)	22.8	46% (104)	38% (35)	3.91 (94)	40.1	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2
HOU Defense	13	22.8	24.2	41.5%	3.91	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	46%	38%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18
HOU Offense	13	29.1	25.7	41.9%	3.55	1.1	22	395	179	216	4.3	57%	42%	40%	45%	13%	.12

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5
Houston	13	32:18	22.1	41%	59%	4.6	40.1	1.1	1.4	4.7	2.2	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (44)	3.09 (42)	77% (32)	8% (36)	0.9 (99)
HOU Defense	13	49% (55)	46% (104)	-	-	-	-	.05 (41)	2.7 (32)	76% (104)	9% (84)	0.78 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (107)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (68)
HOU Offense	13	57% (17)	40% (99)	41.9	178.6	4.3	17 (78)	-.03 (132)	2.61 (125)	73% (61)	8% (40)	0.8 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (41)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (67)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (28)	.42 (27)	6% (86)	2.1 (35)
HOU Defense	13	49% (80)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (38)	.21 (56)	1.5 (53)	32% (60)	25% (14)	.23 (46)	7% (28)	2.1 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (71)	1.4 (13)	28% (122)	29% (65)	.24 (51)	6% (86)	1.7 (8)
HOU Offense	13	42% (118)	45% (35)	18.6	29	216.4	7.5	11.6	26 (50)	10 (20)	.35 (35)	1.7 (16)	30% (43)	27% (105)	.21 (101)	5% (33)	2 (79)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 2.84 #53
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.66 #47
Baylor's Defense Rating: 15.82 #60
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 2.84 Houston: 9.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 Houston: 7.4

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 9.04 #40
Houston's Offense Rating: 13.90 #43
Houston's Defense Rating: 13.22 #39
2026 Talent Rating: 812.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Houston's 2026 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 34
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 60

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Baylor	24	Houston	31	Baylor -2.5	Houston	57.5	Under
2024	11/23	Houston	10	Baylor	20	Baylor -7	Baylor	51.0	Under
2023	11/04	Baylor	24	Houston	25	Baylor -3	Houston	58.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Houston	2	2	0 Overs
Baylor	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 0	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0

(#53) BAY at (#40) HOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	HOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#53	#40
SP+SP+	#71	#40
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#37	#52
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#46

Baylor Injury Report

Houston Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	HOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#39	#65
ExplosiveExp	#53	#9
PPAPPA	#49	#44
PowerPwr	#47	#39
SP+SP+	#32	#46
Pts POPPO	#69	#94
HavocHav	#56	#58

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#104
Run ExplRExp	#99	#5
PPAExp	#44	#41
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#54
TackleTak	-	NR

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#53
PPAExp	#67	#56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#36	#84
DB HavocDB	#86	#28

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#74	#104
ExplosiveExp	#85	#15
PPAPPA	#102	#81
PowerPwr	#43	#60
SP+SP+	#44	#110
Pts POPPO	#83	#124
HavocHav	#36	#126

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#107
Run ExplRExp	#130	#68
PPAExp	#132	#93
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#125	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#108	#123
TackleTak	-	NR

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#13
PPAExp	#35	#71
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#40	#131
DB HavocDB	#33	#86

Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Baylor last year (31-24)
Baylor beat Houston in 2024 (20-10)
Houston beat Baylor in 2023 (25-24)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	71	136	1	1.9	38
Drelon Miller	46	134	1	2.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)	53	481	4	9.1	33
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32
Caden Knighten	11	134	1	12.2	39
Tony Livingston (Tr)	11	119	2	10.8	38

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)	39	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)	37	12	5	4	0
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jamaal Whyce	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	0	7
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Reggie Bush	11	0	0	0	2

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman	232	356	65%	2705	25	9	7.6
Luke Carney (Tr)	5	7	71%	22	0	0	3.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Conner Weigman	170	703	11	4.1	50
DJ Butler	68	301	0	4.4	15
Makhi Hughes (Tr)	17	70	0	4.1	19
Luke Carney (Tr)	10	28	1	2.8	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas	67	966	12	14.4	64
Trent Walker (Tr)	68	823	2	12.1	43
Patrick Overmyer (Tr)	27	344	5	12.7	45
Koby Young	12	191	0	15.9	43

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kentrell Webb	71	3	0	0	4
Jaden Yates (Tr)	55	2	1	0	0
Sione Fotu	53	1	1	2	0
Jordan Allen	48	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Mack	32	6	5	1	0
Khalil Laufau	34	3	2	2	1
Latreveon McCutchin	37	3	1	4	2
Carmycah Glass	24	1	1	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Javion White (Tr)	44	4	6
Will James	39	4	5
Kentrell Webb	71	3	4