Oklahoma State at Baylor - 2022 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 1st 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -2.5 (56.0)
Oklahoma State 36 - Baylor: 25 (Big 12)

Cowboys (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (149 - 69)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (10 - 41 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

OKST coming off BYE
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ BAY -0)
Projected Score: OKST: 21 - BAY: 34 (55)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 316 miles

Bears (6 - 7) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (14 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Oklahoma State vs Central Michigan	-20.5	58.0	W 58 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/10	Oklahoma State vs Arizona State	-12.0	58.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-54.5	64.5	W 63 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Oklahoma State at Baylor	+2.5	56.0	W 36 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech	-11.0	66.0	W 41 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/15	Oklahoma State at TCU	+5.0	69.5	L 40 - 43	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Oklahoma State vs Texas	+6.5	58.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Oklahoma State at Kansas State	+2.5	57.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/5	Oklahoma State at Kansas	+3.0	59.5	L 16 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/12	Oklahoma State vs Iowa State	+2.5	47.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Oklahoma State at Oklahoma	+7.0	67.5	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/26	Oklahoma State vs West Virginia	-5.5	59.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Tue 12/27	Oklahoma State vs Wisconsin	+5.0	45.0	L 17 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Baylor's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Baylor vs UAlbany	-42.5	46.5	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Baylor at BYU	+2.5	54.5	L 20 - 26	U	N
Sat 9/17	Baylor vs Texas State	-30.0	53.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Baylor at Iowa State	+2.5	45.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-2.5	56.0	L 25 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/13	Baylor at West Virginia	-3.0	55.0	L 40 - 43	O	N
Sat 10/22	Baylor vs Kansas	-10.5	56.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Baylor at Texas Tech	+1.5	61.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Baylor at Oklahoma	+3.0	61.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Baylor vs Kansas State	-2.5	52.0	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/19	Baylor vs TCU	+2.0	58.0	L 28 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/25	Baylor at Texas	+10.0	55.0	L 27 - 38	O	N
Thu 12/22	Baylor vs Air Force	-3.5	42.0	L 15 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	.16	42%	14.2	41%	2.72	186	44%	232	3.87	.05	36%	33.3	34%	38%	3.05	55.8	1.4	1.5
BAY	.27	45%	31.1	46%	3.26	219	44%	203	4	.15	37%	32.6	35%	39%	3.04	48.4	1.1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	14	14.2	10.2	42.4%	3.87	1.4	24	417	186	232	4.2	54%	46%	41%	44%	16%	.16
BAY Defense	14	32.6	27.9	37%	3.04	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	35%	39%	20%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	14	33.3	41.4	36%	3.05	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	34%	38%	23%	.05
BAY Offense	14	31.1	29.6	45%	4	1.1	21	422	219	203	5.4	59%	41%	46%	44%	15%	.27

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	14	30:52	23.6	43%	54%	6	55.8	1.4	1.5	8.4	4.1	4	31
Baylor	14	31:23	20.7	42%	63%	5.4	48.4	1.1	1.8	7.4	3.1	3	31.3

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	14	54%	41%	44.3	185.5	4.2	27	.04	2.72	65%	11%	0.87
BAY Defense	14	47%	35%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.76	75%	13%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	14	44%	34%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.35	47%	16%	0.93
BAY Offense	14	59%	46%	40.9	219.3	5.4	29	.28	3.26	74%	11%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	14	46%	44%	19.6	31.9	231.9	7.3	11.9	23	13	.32	1.5	31%	29%	.26	6%	2
BAY Defense	14	52%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.22	1.6	35%	26%	.21	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	14	56%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.13	1.5	35%	25%	.12	6%	1.9
BAY Offense	14	41%	44%	16.9	26.1	203.1	7.8	12	24	7	.26	1.6	29%	32%	.33	4%	1.8

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: NR
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: NR
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Oklahoma State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Oklahoma State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #31
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #22
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: Baylor: 8.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 11.3 Baylor: 11.7

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 8.35 NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Baylor's 2022 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #30
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.2
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.4

Oklahoma State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 34
Oklahoma State 21

Projected Total Points: 55

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Baylor -21	Oklahoma State	58.5	Over
2024	10/26	Baylor	38	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor -7.0	Baylor	64.5	Over
2022	10/01	Baylor	25	Oklahoma State	36	Baylor -2.5	Oklahoma State	56.0	Over
2021	12/04	Oklahoma State	16	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State -7	Baylor	45.0	Under
2021	10/02	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State -3.5	Oklahoma State	47.0	Under
2020	12/12	Baylor	3	Oklahoma State	42	Oklahoma State -6	Oklahoma State	49.5	Under
2019	10/19	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Oklahoma State -5.5	Baylor	68.5	Over
2018	11/03	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	31	Oklahoma State -6	Baylor	68.0	Under
2017	10/14	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	16	Oklahoma State -26	Oklahoma State	68.5	Over
2016	09/24	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor -10	Baylor	73.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oklahoma State	35	Baylor	45	Baylor -3	Baylor	76.5	Over
2014	11/22	Baylor	49	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor -25	Oklahoma State	0
2013	11/23	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	17	Baylor -13	Oklahoma State	0
2012	12/01	Baylor	41	Oklahoma State	34
2011	10/29	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	24
2010	11/06	Oklahoma State	55	Baylor	28
2009	10/24	Baylor	7	Oklahoma State	34
2008	10/18	Oklahoma State	34	Baylor	6
2007	11/17	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State	45
2006	11/11	Oklahoma State	66	Baylor	24
2005	11/19	Baylor	44	Oklahoma State	34
2004	11/13	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	21
2003	11/22	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State	38
2001	11/17	Baylor	22	Oklahoma State	38
2000	11/17	Oklahoma State	50	Baylor	22

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	10	6	6 Overs
Oklahoma State	15	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#) OKST at (#) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKST	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#31	#30
Perf GradeGrade	#89	#27
OffenseOff	#116	#25
DefenseDef	#56	#42
Spec TeamsST	#5	#65
TalentTal	#39	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Oklahoma State Injury Report

Baylor Injury Report

Oklahoma State on Offense


CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#42
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#62
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oklahoma State Run Game


CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#116	#64
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#56

Oklahoma State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#89	#47
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#56
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#123

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#63
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#13	#49
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'22 Profile: Remains Average P4

OKST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Baylor -2.5 (56.0)
Oklahoma State won at Baylor this year (36-25)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (45-27)
Baylor beat Oklahoma State in 2024 (38-28)

OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Derek Mason (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD