Samford at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Samford logo Samford Bulldogs at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -51.5 (65.5) (0)  Open: 0.0 | 58.5
Baylor 42 - Samford: 7

 
Bulldogs (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 7 - 42 (7 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Baylor -15   (SP+ BAY -10)
BAY Win prob: 100% | Cover: 60%
Bears (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 38 - 30 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Samford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Samford at Baylor+51.565.5L 7 - 42UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Samford at Texas A&M+25.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Samford's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-2.560.5
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+8.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+4
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+6
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-0.5
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAM0%70%000%000%420%0%0000
BAY#50 (.26)44% (59)3841% (90)3.26 (39)14947% (46)3684.09 (64)#98 (.19)45% (105)3047% (108)41% (77)4.23 (96)54.71.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAM Offense1770%00000000%0%0%0%0%
BAY Defense33022.544.9%4.231.7 - - - - - 64%34%47%41%15%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAM Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
BAY Offense3383344.4%4.091.328517149368437%62%41%47%11%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Samford10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Baylor331:082837%53%5.354.71.31.74.31.7030
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAM Offense10%0%000000%0%0
BAY Defense364% (132)47% (108) - - - - .16 (105)3.28 (121)100% (127)9% (88)0.9 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAM Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
BAY Offense337% (128)41% (90)37149.345 (62).11 (80)3.26 (39)73% (65)7% (30)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAM Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
BAY Defense334% (4)41% (77) - - - - - - 4 (12).32 (102)1.5 (50)26% (126)24% (40).19 (54)6% (56)1.5 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAM Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
BAY Offense362% (8)47% (46)29.747.33687.812.410 (7)2 (60).35 (59)1.6 (57)30% (64)39% (28).52 (36)5% (60)1.9 (84)

Samford's Power Ratings
Samford's Power Rating: #NR
Samford's Offense Rating: #NR
Samford's Defense Rating: #NR
2025 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Samford's 2025 Expected Record: -
Samford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Samford's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Samford's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average Southern Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Samford:    Baylor: 14.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Samford:    Baylor: 10.3




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 14.865 #40
Baylor's Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Samford Scoring
Offense: 7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Samford's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 38
Samford 23


Total Points: 61

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Baylor42Samford7BaylorBaylor -51.5Samford65.5Under
200509/10Baylor48Samford14Baylor
200209/07Baylor50Samford12Baylor
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor300 Overs
Samford011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#NR) Samford Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -


Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Samford Highlights
Samford is Undefeated vs Spread


Samford Deficiencies
Samford has a really bad Offense
Samford Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBAYSAM
OverallOver#66
OffenseOff#56
DefenseDef#79
Special TeamsST#101
PassingPass#77
RushingRush#92
Run BlockRBLK#23
Pass BlockPBLK#71
Route RunningWR Rt#45
TacklingTkl#77
Run DefenseR Def#105
Pass Rush DefPRush#93
Coverage DefCov#16

Rematch from Week 3
Baylor -51.5 (65.5)
Baylor won vs Samford this year (42-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SAM | BAY
Depth Chart: SAM | BAY
Rosters: SAM | BAY
(#40) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 14.865 #40
Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70
Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.09 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Baylor has won 1 straight
Baylor has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Baylor Notes
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).

Baylor Highlights
Baylor defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor has a bad defense (#105)
Baylor Does Not Stuff Runs (#122)
Baylor has a bad defensive line (#121)


  
Samford's OC
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Quincy Crittendon699870%537045.5
Brady Stober173057%161025.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Evans Jr.2710714.012
Brady Stober124203.534
Quincy Crittendon313201.012
Ken Cherry122402.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Preston Bird2216507.531
Jaden Gibson (Tr)2014507.317
Torrey Ward11133112.130
Calvin Jones (Tr)660010.026

View Samford's Full Roster
Samford's DC
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Mosley121000
Jalen Nelson100000
Conroy Cunningham II50000
Keshawn Washington50000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxton Woodward31100
Jaden Mosley121000
Clay Burdeshaw10000
Malik Gaither10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Mosley121000
Jalik Yancey10000
Malik Gaither10000

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson8413562%10701027.9
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington6630444.631
Caden Knighten238913.917
Michael Turner63606.013
Sawyer Robertson131200.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashtyn Hawkins17257015.136
Josh Cameron15244316.348
Kole Wilson (Tr)13182014.057
Michael Trigg13151111.620

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas301000
Devyn Bobby160000
Jacob Redding120000
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)63200
Kendrick Simpkins62110
Micah Gifford31100
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Coleman101012
Taz Williams Jr.00001
Tyler Turner (Tr)60001