Samford at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Samford logo   Samford Bulldogs at Baylor Bears  Baylor logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -51.5 (65.5) (0)  Open: 0.0 | 58.5
Baylor 42 - Samford: 7

 
Bulldogs (0 - 2) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 4 - 45 (4 - 45 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Baylor -9.5  (SP+ BAY -1)
BAY Win prob: 100% | Cover: 60%
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Samford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Samford at Baylor+51.565.5L 7 - 42UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Samford at Texas A&M+54.559.5L 0 - 48UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Samford's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAM0%3.50%000%000%450%0%0000
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)31.146% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)32.638% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SAM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAM Offense13.53.50%00000000%0%0%0%0%
BAY Defense1332.627.939.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SAM Defense145450%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
BAY Offense1331.129.646.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Samford10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAM Offense10%0%000000%0%0
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SAM Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAM Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SAM Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

Samford's Power Ratings
Samford's Power Rating: NR
Samford's Offense Rating: NR
Samford's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Samford's 2025 Expected Record: -
Samford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Samford's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Samford's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Southern Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Samford:    Baylor: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Samford:    Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.53  #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52  #43
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Samford Scoring
Offense: 3.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 3.5
Defense: 45 PPG
Defense on Road: 45

Samford's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 2
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 35
Samford 25

Projected Total Points: 60
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Baylor42Samford7Baylor -51.5Samford65.5Under
200509/10Baylor48Samford14
200209/07Baylor50Samford12
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor300 Overs
Samford011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#) SAM at (#30) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSAMBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #30
SP+SP+NR #71
Perf GradeGradeNR #78
OffenseOffNR #61
DefenseDefNR #100
Spec TeamsSTNR #5
TalentTalNR #24
Blue ChipsBC%NR #49
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Samford on Offense
CategoryCat
SAM OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #100
SuccessSucNR #38
ExplosiveExpNR #102
PPAPPANR #74
PowerPwrNR #43
SP+SP+NR #110
Pts POPPONR #77
HavocHavNR #83
Samford Run Game
CategoryCat
SAM OffBAY Def
Run GameRunNR #115
Run SuccessRSucNR #13
Run ExplRExpNR #92
PPAExpNR #64
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #74
Stuff RateStuffNR #90
TackleTak -  #38
Samford Pass Game
CategoryCat
SAM OffBAY Def
Pass GamePassNR #45
Pass SuccessPSucNR #78
Pass ExplPExlNR #99
PPAExpNR #80
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #124
F7 HavocF7NR #84
DB HavocDBNR #80
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffSAM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61NR
SuccessSuc #23NR
ExplosiveExp #49NR
PPAPPA #29NR
PowerPwr #20NR
SP+SP+ #32NR
Pts POPPO #30NR
HavocHav #17NR
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffSAM Def
Run GameRun #92NR
Run SuccessRSuc #37NR
Run ExplRExp #50NR
PPAExp #41NR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #43NR
Stuff RateStuff #13NR
TackleTak - NR
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffSAM Def
Pass GamePass #71NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #14NR
Pass ExplPExl #49NR
PPAExp #21NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84NR
F7 HavocF7 #9NR
DB HavocDB #55NR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

SAM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Baylor -51.5 (65.5)
Baylor won vs Samford this year (42-7)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Samford last year (42-7)

  
SAM's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Quincy Crittendon17525768%1672666.5
Brady Stober12219662%1240776.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Evans Jr.9024322.732
Ken Cherry6619713.030
Cam Bland3914513.715
Brady Stober768821.234
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Calvin Jones (Tr)61654610.748
Preston Bird53617411.670
Sam Pickett III33450213.677
Jaden Gibson (Tr)4440509.247

View Samford's Full Roster

SAM's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Mosley221000
Carson Sloan140020
Amari Wansley130001
Jalen Nelson120001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Caldwell II21100
Maxton Woodward61100
Jackson Bussey (Tr)10000
Quantaves Gaskins20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Shannon10001
Amari Wansley130001
Jalen Nelson120001

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004