Baylor at Kansas State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo   Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats  Kansas State logo
Saturday, November 20th 2021 (5:30 PM EST)
Kansas State -2.5 (49.5)
Baylor 20 - Kansas State: 10  (Big 12)

 
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
KSU 2nd straight Home Game
KSU is playing their 6th straight game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2  (SP+ BAY -1.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 30 - KSU: 33 (63)
KSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 529 miles
Wildcats (8 - 5) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Chris Klieman (15 - 11)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (30 - 27 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Kansas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Kansas State vs Stanford-3.054.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 9/11 Kansas State vs Southern Illinois-17.055.0W 31 - 23UN
Sat 9/18 Kansas State vs Nevada+1.551.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 9/25 Kansas State at Oklahoma State+6.047.5L 20 - 31ON
Sat 10/2 Kansas State vs Oklahoma+12.053.0L 31 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Kansas State vs Iowa State+6.551.0L 20 - 33ON
Sat 10/23 Kansas State at Texas Tech-1.060.5W 25 - 24UN
Sat 10/30 Kansas State vs TCU-3.558.5W 31 - 12UY
Sat 11/6 Kansas State at Kansas-24.056.0W 35 - 10UY
Sat 11/13 Kansas State vs West Virginia-6.047.5W 34 - 17OY
Sat 11/20 Kansas State vs Baylor-2.549.5L 10 - 20UN
Fri 11/26 Kansas State at Texas+3.054.5L 17 - 22UN
Tue 1/4 Kansas State vs LSU-9.547.0W 42 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY.0534%31.134%2.159134%2203.33.1340%32.641%39%4.1762.411.9
KSU.1637%29.440%2.5715235%1863.69.2444%26.741%46%3.9256.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense931.133.234.2%3.33118311912202.842%58%34%34%20%.05
KSU Defense1026.727.343.7%3.921.2 - - - - - 47%53%41%46%17%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense932.639.240%4.171.9 - - - - - 55%45%41%39%17%.13
KSU Offense1029.429.737.5%3.691.5163381521864.356%44%40%35%18%.16

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor929:0818.333%60%7.162.411.96.62429.8
Kansas State1028:4415.533%60%6.556.41.51.26.82.8430.7
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense942%34%3391.22.88-.032.1579%13%0.95
KSU Defense1047%41% - - - - .182.879%11%1.23
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense955%41% - - - - .122.7867%11%1.04
KSU Offense1056%40%35.3152.24.317.082.5768%11%1.07

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense958%34%22.836.8219.969.7148.111.537%25%.27%2.1
KSU Defense1053%46% - - - - - - 7.31.431%34%.416%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense945%39% - - - - - - 12.151.533%29%.316%2.1
KSU Offense1044%35%13.724.7185.77.513.61210.261.933%26%.287%2.3

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor:    Kansas State: 9.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.6   Kansas State: 14.2




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 9.6 NR
Kansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Kansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Kansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Kansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.2  #21
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #36
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.0  #16

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 33
Baylor 30

Projected Total Points: 63
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Kansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Baylor35Kansas State34Baylor -4.5Kansas State59.5Over
202311/11Kansas State59Baylor25Kansas State -20.5Kansas State55.5Over
202211/12Baylor3Kansas State31Baylor -2.5Kansas State52.0Under
202111/20Kansas State10Baylor20Kansas State -2.5Baylor49.5Under
202011/28Baylor32Kansas State31Baylor -5.5Kansas State44.5Over
201910/05Kansas State12Baylor31Baylor -1Baylor48.5Under
201810/06Baylor37Kansas State34Baylor -3.5Kansas State54.0Over
201709/30Kansas State33Baylor20Kansas State -15Baylor57.5Under
201611/19Baylor21Kansas State42Kansas State -2Kansas State58.5Over
201511/05Kansas State24Baylor31Baylor -18.5Kansas State67.0Under
201412/06Baylor38Kansas State27Baylor -9Baylor0
201310/12Kansas State25Baylor35Baylor -10.5Kansas State0
201211/17Baylor52Kansas State24
201110/01Kansas State36Baylor35
201010/23Baylor47Kansas State42
200710/27Kansas State51Baylor13
200609/30Baylor17Kansas State3
200311/01Kansas State38Baylor10
200210/26Baylor10Kansas State44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State885 Overs
Baylor1145 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 74 - 82 - 62 - 2
Road Teams7 - 128 - 42 - 26 - 2

(#) BAY at (#) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYKSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #15 #21
Perf GradeGrade #13 #53
OffenseOff #9 #38
DefenseDef #27 #75
Spec TeamsST #76 #118
TalentTal #41 #67
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #75
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #16
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #22 #69
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #129
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #78
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #74
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Kansas State on Offense
CategoryCatKSU OffBAY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #36 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Kansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
KSU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #16 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
Kansas State Pass Game
CategoryCatKSU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #79 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #64 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Kansas State -2.5 (49.5)
Baylor won at Kansas State this year (20-10)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Kansas State last year (35-34)
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2023 (59-25)

  
BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

KSU's OC Courtney Messingham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD