TCU at Baylor - 2022 Matchup Preview
TCU logo   TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears  Baylor logo
Saturday, November 19th 2022 (12:00 PM EST)
TCU -2 (58.0)
TCU 29 - Baylor: 28  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (13 - 2) (10 - 4 - 1)
Coach Sonny Dykes (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU 2nd straight Road Game
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 6th straight game
TCU is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -4  (SP+ TCU -12.5)
Projected Score: TCU: 29 - BAY: 28 (57)
TCU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TCU Travel: 81 miles
Bears (6 - 7) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (14 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2 TCU at Colorado-13.559.0W 38 - 13UY
Sat 9/10 TCU vs Tarleton State-40.066.5W 59 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 TCU at SMU-2.572.0W 42 - 34OY
Sat 10/1 TCU vs Oklahoma+5.069.5W 55 - 24OY
Sat 10/8 TCU at Kansas-7.070.0W 38 - 31UN
Sat 10/15 TCU vs Oklahoma State-5.069.5W 43 - 40ON
Sat 10/22 TCU vs Kansas State-3.554.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 10/29 TCU at West Virginia-7.070.0W 41 - 31OY
Sat 11/5 TCU vs Texas Tech-8.569.0W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/12 TCU at Texas+7.565.0W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/19 TCU at Baylor-2.058.0W 29 - 28UN
Sat 11/26 TCU vs Iowa State-9.546.0W 62 - 14OY
Sat 12/3 TCU vs Kansas State-1.060.5L 28 - 31UN
Sat 12/31 TCU vs Michigan+8.056.0W 51 - 45OY
Mon 1/9 TCU vs Georgia+13.562.0L 7 - 65ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Baylor's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Baylor vs UAlbany-42.546.5W 69 - 10OY
Sat 9/10 Baylor at BYU+2.554.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 9/17 Baylor vs Texas State-30.053.0W 42 - 7UY
Sat 9/24 Baylor at Iowa State+2.545.0W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/1 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-2.556.0L 25 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/13 Baylor at West Virginia-3.055.0L 40 - 43ON
Sat 10/22 Baylor vs Kansas-10.556.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 10/29 Baylor at Texas Tech+1.561.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/5 Baylor at Oklahoma+3.061.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/12 Baylor vs Kansas State-2.552.0L 3 - 31UN
Sat 11/19 Baylor vs TCU+2.058.0L 28 - 29UY
Fri 11/25 Baylor at Texas+10.055.0L 27 - 38ON
Thu 12/22 Baylor vs Air Force-3.542.0L 15 - 30ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU.3245%30.745%3.219444%2373.4.3448%25.350%46%4.7261.41.31.1
BAY.2745%31.146%3.2621944%2034.1537%32.635%39%3.0448.41.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1230.725.544.6%3.41.3214311942374.957%42%45%44%19%.32
BAY Defense1432.627.937%3.041.8 - - - - - 47%52%35%39%20%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1225.326.248.1%4.721.1 - - - - - 55%44%50%46%15%.34
BAY Offense1431.129.645%41.1214222192035.459%41%46%44%15%.27

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1229:282146%39%7.161.41.31.14.11.3227.3
Baylor1431:2320.742%63%5.448.41.11.87.43.1331.3
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1257%45%39.4194.24.921.243.263%14%1.12
BAY Defense1447%35% - - - - .12.7675%13%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1255%50% - - - - .313.5384%9%1.09
BAY Offense1459%46%40.9219.35.429.283.2674%11%1.19

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1242%44%16.725.8236.59.214.2196.461.933%38%.565%2.1
BAY Defense1452%39% - - - - - - 19.221.635%26%.217%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1244%46% - - - - - - 10.421.827%38%.456%2
BAY Offense1441%44%16.926.1203.17.812247.261.629%32%.334%1.8

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: NR
TCU's Offense Rating: NR
TCU's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
TCU's 2022 Expected Record: -
TCU's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3  #6
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.3  #6
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #31

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU:    Baylor: 8.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 24.3   Baylor: 11.7




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 8.35 NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Baylor's 2022 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #30
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6  #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #62

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2022 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 6
Record on Road: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 29
Baylor 28

Projected Total Points: 57
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18TCU42Baylor36TCU -3.5TCU66.5Over
202411/02Baylor37TCU34Baylor -2.5Baylor64.0Over
202311/18TCU42Baylor17TCU -13.0TCU62.0Under
202211/19Baylor28TCU29TCU -2Baylor58.0Under
202111/06TCU30Baylor28Baylor -7.5TCU57.0Over
202010/31Baylor23TCU33TCU -3.0TCU0
201911/09TCU23Baylor29Baylor -3.0Baylor48.5Over
201811/17Baylor9TCU16Baylor -1TCU50.5Under
201711/24TCU45Baylor22TCU -25.5Baylor53.0Over
201611/05Baylor22TCU62Baylor -9TCU65.0Over
201511/27TCU28Baylor21Baylor -2TCU75.0Under
201410/11Baylor61TCU58Baylor -11TCU0
201311/30TCU38Baylor41Baylor -14TCU0
201210/13Baylor21TCU49
201109/02Baylor50TCU48
201009/18TCU45Baylor10
200709/01TCU27Baylor0
200609/03Baylor7TCU17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor546 Overs
TCU1394 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 87 - 63 - 44 - 2
Road Teams8 - 106 - 72 - 44 - 3

(#) TCU at (#) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #6 #30
Perf GradeGrade #46 #27
OffenseOff #27 #25
DefenseDef #74 #42
Spec TeamsST #105 #65
TalentTal #32 #41
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
TCU on Offense
CategoryCat
TCU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #42
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #6 #62
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
TCU Run Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #30 #64
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #56
TCU Pass Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #25 #36
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #47
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCatBAY OffTCU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #74
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #22 #31
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #68 #62
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #28
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCatBAY OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #24 #53
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #13 #128
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'22 Profile: Remains Average P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
TCU 2.0 (58.0)
TCU won at Baylor this year (29-28)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Baylor last year (42-36)
Baylor beat TCU in 2024 (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)

  
TCU's OC Garrett Riley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joseph Gillespie (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD