UCF at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX  (Big 12)

 
Knights (3 - 3) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (16 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
UCF coming off BYE
Our Line: Baylor -9  (SP+ BAY -2)

Projected Score: UCF: 22 - BAY: 31 (52)
BAY Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
UCF Travel: 973 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bears (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 36 - 30 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-7.546.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+9
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.5
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+26.5
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-17.5
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+15.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.065.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+7.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+10
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+0
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#62 (.21)40% (106)28.341% (92)2.75 (95)20139% (98)2233.67 (91)#42 (.11)41% (63)17.843% (85)38% (38)3.37 (38)56.711.2
BAY#30 (.3)47% (37)36.344% (65)3.12 (49)14649% (25)3494.19 (59)#66 (.16)43% (91)29.745% (101)41% (70)4.34 (110)641.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense628.315.540.2%3.671214232012235.648%52%41%39%16%.21
BAY Defense629.726.543.2%4.341 - - - - - 55%44%45%41%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense617.82740.7%3.371.2 - - - - - 57%43%43%38%17%.11
BAY Offense636.331.346.5%4.191.7264941463494.439%60%44%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF631:132136%65%7.356.711.25.31.3127.9
Baylor628:302640%52%6.3641.714.51.2128.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense648% (87)41% (92)35.8200.75.614 (28).22 (34)2.75 (95)70% (86)10% (96)1.36 (2)
BAY Defense655% (112)45% (101) - - - - .11 (82)3.15 (113)90% (132)8% (109)0.87 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense657% (120)43% (85) - - - - .12 (88)2.81 (55)78% (102)11% (48)1.04 (94)
BAY Offense639% (129)44% (65)32.8145.54.48 (87).17 (49)3.12 (49)72% (74)8% (26)1.02 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense652% (48)39% (98)20.733.5222.76.710.84 (125)2 (11).2 (96)1.5 (94)32% (84)26% (104).35 (62)6% (83)2.4 (6)
BAY Defense644% (24)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (46).25 (72)1.5 (46)30% (104)27% (39).25 (57)7% (47)1.8 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense643% (17)38% (38) - - - - - - 5 (46).1 (24)1.3 (9)31% (83)25% (28).11 (20)6% (75)1.5 (3)
BAY Offense660% (10)49% (25)27.242.5348.78.212.819 (3)4 (50).38 (34)1.5 (72)30% (50)39% (13).56 (17)5% (55)2 (72)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.15  #62
UCF's Offense Rating: 9.26  #79
UCF's Defense Rating: 5.11  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2  #58
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #77
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.15   Baylor: 12.985

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.2   Baylor: 5.9




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.985  #41
Baylor's Offense Rating: 21.98  #27
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.91  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #51
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5  #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #90

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


UCF Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 31
UCF 22


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 30
UCF 21

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 28
UCF 25

Total Points: 53
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.5

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30UCF35Baylor36UCF -8Baylor56.5Over
201301/01Baylor42UCF52Baylor -17UCF74.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor112 Overs
UCF110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams2 - 02 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#62) UCF at (#41) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFBAY
Power RatePwr #62 #41
SP+SP+ #58 #51
Perf GradeGrade #64 #53
OffenseOff #104 #48
DefenseDef #40 #52
Spec TeamsST #10 #75
TalentTal #72 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #49

UCF Notes
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
(4/7) WR all new. Charles/Jenkins Jr future. 3 portals.

Baylor Notes
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #104 #52
SuccessSuc #106 #91
ExplosiveExp #8 #27
PPAPPA #62 #66
PowerPwr #79 #64
SP+SP+ #77 #90
Pts POPPO #91 #110
HavocHav #87 #101
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #44 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #101
Run ExplRExp #2 #36
PPAExp #34 #82
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #95 #113
Stuff RateStuff #120 #113
TackleTak -  #30
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #120 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #70
Pass ExplPExl #94 #46
PPAExp #96 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #19 #109
F7 HavocF7 #96 #109
DB HavocDB #83 #47
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatBAY OffUCF Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #40
SuccessSuc #37 #63
ExplosiveExp #27 #28
PPAPPA #30 #42
PowerPwr #27 #49
SP+SP+ #22 #38
Pts POPPO #59 #38
HavocHav #36 #56
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #108 #52
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #85
Run ExplRExp #52 #94
PPAExp #49 #88
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #55
Stuff RateStuff #46 #54
TackleTak -  #39
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatBAY OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #67 #28
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #38
Pass ExplPExl #72 #9
PPAExp #34 #24
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #43
F7 HavocF7 #26 #48
DB HavocDB #55 #75
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Baylor beat UCF in 2023 (36-35)

  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)8012465%906317.3
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery8643435.045
Jaden Nixon (Tr)25289411.687
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)26272010.541
DJ Black15241216.182
Dylan Wade (Tr)15155110.339
Marcus Burke (Tr)10151015.130

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)382111
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)352000
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)283101
Antoine Jackson251002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence104212
Lewis Carter (Tr)382111
Sincere Edwards (Tr)135110
Rodney Lora (Tr)124100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)80004
DJ Bell (Tr)50002
Antoine Jackson251002

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson15824864%20581948.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington10255755.541
Caden Knighten3716914.649
Michael Turner2612114.717
Joseph Dodds71902.75
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron32456314.348
Michael Trigg29439415.142
Kole Wilson (Tr)24324213.557
Ashtyn Hawkins24304012.736

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas513002
Devyn Bobby331001
Kyland Reed241010
Jacob Redding230002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)113200
Jackie Marshall115200
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Micah Gifford71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Jenkins81003
Keaton Thomas513002
Caldra Williford (Tr)91002