UCF at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -3 (58.5) (-155)  Open: -4.5
Baylor 30 - UCF: 3  (Big 12)

 
Knights (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
UCF coming off BYE
Our Line: Baylor -12.5  (SP+ BAY -3)

Projected Score: UCF: 22 - BAY: 35 (57)
BAY Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
UCF Travel: 973 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UCF vs Jacksonville State-16.553.5W 17 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 UCF vs North Carolina A&T-38.051.0W 68 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UCF vs North Carolina-7.046.5W 34 - 9UY
Sat 9/27 UCF at Kansas State+5.548.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 UCF vs Kansas+4.053.5L 20 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 UCF at Cincinnati+10.055.5L 11 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 UCF vs West Virginia-6.546.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 UCF at Baylor+3.058.5L 3 - 30UN
Fri 11/7 UCF vs Houston-1.547.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/15 UCF at Texas Tech+24.548.5L 9 - 48ON
Sat 11/22 UCF vs Oklahoma State-13.547.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 UCF at BYU+17.546.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)24.352% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)23.637% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)31.146% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)32.638% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1224.312.846.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21
BAY Defense1332.627.939.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1223.634.639.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
BAY Offense1331.129.646.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -4.75  #78
UCF's Offense Rating: 8.79  #93
UCF's Defense Rating: 13.54  #65
2025 Talent Rating: 706.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 15%  #32
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2  #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2  #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -4.75   Baylor: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: -1.2   Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.53  #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 35
UCF 22


Projected Total Points: 57
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Baylor30UCF3Baylor -3Baylor58.5Under
202309/30UCF35Baylor36UCF -8Baylor56.5Over
201301/01Baylor42UCF52Baylor -17UCF74.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor222 Overs
UCF111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams2 - 12 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#78) UCF at (#30) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #78 #30
SP+SP+ #76 #71
Perf GradeGrade #81 #78
OffenseOff #123 #61
DefenseDef #21 #100
Spec TeamsST #32 #5
TalentTal #72 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #49
UCF Notes
(10/18) Killed WVU, 550+ yds to 200, Run/Pass both great
(10/18) Stopped bleeding now 4-3 into bye, can they bowl?
(9/30) Off Success #'s poor but Expl high, all or nothing
(9/20) Killed NC, Jackson looked decent, Def was great
(8/29) QB T Jackson played OK w/ Fancher hurt (Jax St)
(8/29) Run game alarmingly bad in opener vs Jax St
(8/21) QB1 Fancher (FAU) wins starting job in camp
(7/30) New staff, over 70 newcomers, big mystery
(7/22) UCF 13th in YPP margin, +108 YPG in '24
(5/23) UCF was 1-3 in 1 score games LY
(4/22) Starting OT Justin Royes (VU) will miss season (inj)
(4/9) QB Fancher (FAU) or Jackson (IU). Rizk portal
UCF Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
UCF on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #123 #100
SuccessSuc #28 #38
ExplosiveExp #73 #102
PPAPPA #58 #74
PowerPwr #93 #42
SP+SP+ #98 #110
Pts POPPO #86 #77
HavocHav #51 #83
UCF Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #68 #115
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #13
Run ExplRExp #11 #92
PPAExp #7 #64
Run BlockR Blk #105 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #74
Stuff RateStuff #16 #90
TackleTak -  #38
UCF Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UCF OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #130 #45
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #78
Pass ExplPExl #76 #99
PPAExp #123 #80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #44 #124
F7 HavocF7 #66 #84
DB HavocDB #48 #80
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffUCF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #21
SuccessSuc #23 #45
ExplosiveExp #49 #95
PPAPPA #29 #63
PowerPwr #20 #65
SP+SP+ #32 #51
Pts POPPO #30 #118
HavocHav #17 #64
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #92 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #12
Run ExplRExp #50 #90
PPAExp #41 #39
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #13
Stuff RateStuff #13 #17
TackleTak -  #31
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #71 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #84
Pass ExplPExl #49 #64
PPAExp #21 #81
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #33
F7 HavocF7 #9 #28
DB HavocDB #55 #118
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 58° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Baylor -3.0 (58.5)
Baylor won vs UCF this year (30-3)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat UCF last year (30-3)
Baylor beat UCF in 2023 (36-35)

  
UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Cam Fancher (Tr)417257%333004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Montgomery14370544.945
Jaden Nixon (Tr)7155477.887
Cam Fancher (Tr)3117015.525
Jacurri Brown1614228.960
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Thomas Jr. (Tr)53528010.041
Dylan Wade (Tr)43523512.283
Waden Charles26290011.230
DJ Black22273212.482

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Demari Henderson613101
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)603002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Lawrence2811732
Lewis Carter (Tr)954211
Cole Kozlowski (Tr)818213
Nyjalik Kelly458283
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Bellamy (Tr)270008
DJ Bell (Tr)170004
Antoine Jackson391004

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004