Baylor at Ole Miss - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, January 1st 2022 (8:45 PM EST)
Ole Miss -1.0 (60.5) (-125) Open: -1.0 | 52.0
Baylor 21 - Ole Miss: 7 (Allstate Sugar Bowl)

Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ BAY -1)
Projected Score: BAY: 25 - MISS: 37 (62)
MISS Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
BAY Travel: 432 miles

Rebels (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
BAY Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Baylor at Texas State	-13.5	52.5	W 29 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/11	Baylor vs Texas Southern	-44.5	53.0	W 66 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Baylor at Kansas	-17.0	48.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Baylor vs Iowa State	+7.0	46.0	W 31 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Baylor at Oklahoma State	+3.5	47.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/9	Baylor vs West Virginia	-1.0	45.0	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Baylor vs BYU	-5.5	52.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Baylor vs Texas	-2.0	61.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Baylor at TCU	-7.5	57.0	L 28 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/13	Baylor vs Oklahoma	+4.0	63.0	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Baylor at Kansas State	+2.5	49.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Baylor vs Texas Tech	-14.0	51.5	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/4	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	+7.0	45.0	W 21 - 16	U	Y
Sat 1/1	Baylor vs Ole Miss	+1.0	60.5	W 21 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Ole Miss vs Louisville	-9.0	74.5	W 43 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Ole Miss vs Austin Peay	-37.0	69.5	W 54 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/18	Ole Miss vs Tulane	-14.0	77.0	W 61 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	Ole Miss at Alabama	+15.0	79.5	L 21 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/9	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-5.0	67.0	W 52 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/16	Ole Miss at Tennessee	-1.0	82.0	W 31 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Ole Miss vs LSU	-9.0	76.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Ole Miss at Auburn	+3.0	67.5	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Ole Miss vs Liberty	-7.5	66.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	+1.0	57.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-35.5	66.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Thu 11/25	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	+2.5	65.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 1/1	Ole Miss vs Baylor	-1.0	60.5	L 7 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	.05	34%	31.1	34%	2.15	91	34%	220	3.33	.13	40%	32.6	41%	39%	4.17	62.4	1	1.9
MISS	.31	48%	36.9	45%	2.92	212	52%	345	4.21	.33	51%	21.1	53%	49%	4.3	51.6	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	9	31.1	33.2	34.2%	3.33	1	18	311	91	220	2.8	42%	58%	34%	34%	20%	.05
MISS Defense	10	21.1	15.6	50.6%	4.3	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	53%	49%	13%	.33

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	9	32.6	39.2	40%	4.17	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	41%	39%	17%	.13
MISS Offense	10	36.9	39	47.9%	4.21	1.8	28	557	212	345	4.6	55%	45%	45%	52%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	9	29:08	18.3	33%	60%	7.1	62.4	1	1.9	6.6	2	4	29.8
Ole Miss	10	27:50	27.6	50%	67%	6	51.6	1.8	1.3	4.7	1.6	0	28.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	9	42%	34%	33	91.2	2.8	8	-.03	2.15	79%	13%	0.95
MISS Defense	10	49%	53%	-	-	-	-	.29	3.27	74%	8%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	9	55%	41%	-	-	-	-	.12	2.78	67%	11%	1.04
MISS Offense	10	55%	45%	46.1	211.6	4.6	23	.21	2.92	65%	10%	1.12

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	9	58%	34%	22.8	36.8	219.9	6	9.7	14	8	.11	1.5	37%	25%	.2	7%	2.1
MISS Defense	10	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.36	1.4	27%	39%	.49	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	9	45%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.15	1.5	33%	29%	.31	6%	2.1
MISS Offense	10	45%	52%	23.8	33.5	345	10.3	14.5	30	14	.43	1.7	27%	42%	.67	4%	2.2

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6 #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1 #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: Ole Miss: 7.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.6 Ole Miss: 14.8

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 7.4 NR
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Ole Miss's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ole Miss's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #17
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #17
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 37
Baylor 25

Projected Total Points: 62

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	01/01	Ole Miss	7	Baylor	21	Ole Miss -1.0	Baylor	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	0	0	0 Overs
Baylor	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Baylor Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Sugar Bowl	Baylor vs Ole Miss	+1.0	60.5	W 21 - 7
2019	Sugar Bowl	Baylor vs Georgia	+4.0	44.0	L 14 - 26
2018	Texas Bowl	Baylor vs Vanderbilt	+4.0	56.5	W 45 - 38
2016	Cactus Bowl	Baylor vs Boise State	+10.0	71.0	W 31 - 12
2015	Athletic Bowl	Baylor vs North Carolina	-3.5		W 49 - 38

Ole Miss Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Sugar Bowl	Ole Miss vs Baylor	-1.0	60.5	L 7 - 21
2020	Outback Bowl	Ole Miss vs Indiana	+6.5	66.5	W 26 - 20
2015	Sugar Bowl	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma State	-7.0		W 48 - 20

(#) BAY at (#) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#15	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#13	#65
OffenseOff	#9	#51
DefenseDef	#27	#77
Spec TeamsST	#76	#58
TalentTal	#41	#27
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Baylor Injury Report

Ole Miss Injury Report

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#9	#77
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#36
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#22	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#84

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#3	#43
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#27
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#12
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#30	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#55

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#42
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Caesers Superdome
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 75° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Ole Miss -1.0 (60.5)
Baylor won at Ole Miss this year (21-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MISS's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC D. J. Durkin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD