Kansas at Baylor - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Kansas -2.5 (62.5) (-125) Open: -1.5 | 61.5
Baylor 45 - Kansas: 17 (Big 12)

Jayhawks (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (17 - 21)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -7.5 (SP+ BAY -4)
Projected Score: KU: 26 - BAY: 34 (60)
KU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
KU Travel: 522 miles

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
KU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kansas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Kansas vs Lindenwood	-48.5	62.5	W 48 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/7	Kansas at Illinois	-4.5	58.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Fri 9/13	Kansas vs UNLV	-7.0	57.0	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/21	Kansas at West Virginia	+1.5	56.0	L 28 - 32	O	N
Sat 9/28	Kansas vs TCU	-1.5	58.5	L 27 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/5	Kansas at Arizona State	+2.5	50.0	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Kansas vs Houston	-4.5	45.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Kansas at Kansas State	+10.0	56.5	L 27 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Kansas vs Iowa State	+2.5	50.5	W 45 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Kansas at BYU	+3.0	55.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Kansas vs Colorado	+2.5	59.0	W 37 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Kansas at Baylor	-2.5	62.5	L 17 - 45	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kansas's Schedule

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
KU	#5 (.4)	48% (13)	28.1	47% (28)	3.42 (10)	206	51% (9)	240	4.43 (27)	#83 (.2)	45% (108)	26.8	46% (101)	44% (102)	4.15 (102)	56.9	1.3	1.5
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	31.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	32.6	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
KU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
KU Offense	13	28.1	21.8	48.1%	4.43	1.3	21	446	206	240	5.4	59%	40%	47%	51%	13%	.4
BAY Defense	12	32.6	27.9	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
KU Defense	13	26.8	33.2	44.9%	4.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	46%	44%	15%	.2
BAY Offense	12	31.1	29.6	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kansas	13	30:55	21.5	48%	37%	5.6	56.9	1.3	1.5	4.6	1.8	4	28.4
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
KU Offense	13	59% (13)	47% (28)	38.4	206	5.4	32 (10)	.24 (20)	3.42 (10)	75% (52)	8% (30)	1.06 (36)
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
KU Defense	13	52% (95)	46% (101)	-	-	-	-	.2 (101)	3.23 (99)	78% (98)	8% (111)	1 (73)
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
KU Offense	13	40% (122)	51% (9)	15.4	23.9	240.1	10	15.6	24 (41)	11 (68)	.67 (1)	1.9 (4)	31% (52)	35% (24)	.5 (18)	5% (26)	2.2 (20)
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
KU Defense	13	48% (43)	44% (102)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (21)	.23 (47)	1.5 (23)	31% (75)	30% (59)	.29 (51)	7% (48)	2 (50)
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)

Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 6.04 #41
Kansas's Offense Rating: 29.66 #3
Kansas's Defense Rating: 12.87 #98
2024 Talent Rating: 343.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Kansas's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kansas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #32
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Kansas: 6.04 Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kansas: 4.9 Baylor: 8.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 383.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

Kansas's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 34
Kansas 26

Projected Total Points: 60

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/30	Baylor	45	Kansas	17	Kansas -2.5	Baylor	62.5	Under
2022	10/22	Baylor	35	Kansas	23	Baylor -10.5	Baylor	56.5	Over
2021	09/18	Kansas	7	Baylor	45	Baylor -17	Baylor	48.5	Over
2020	09/26	Baylor	47	Kansas	14	Baylor -17.5	Baylor	61.0	Push
2019	11/30	Kansas	6	Baylor	61	Baylor -14	Baylor	48.0	Over
2018	09/22	Baylor	26	Kansas	7	Baylor -7.5	Baylor	54.5	Under
2017	11/04	Kansas	9	Baylor	38	Baylor -7	Baylor	59.5	Under
2016	10/15	Baylor	49	Kansas	7	Baylor -35	Baylor	65.0	Under
2015	10/10	Kansas	7	Baylor	66	Baylor -38	Baylor	76.5	Under
2014	11/01	Baylor	60	Kansas	14	Baylor -33.5	Baylor	0
2013	10/26	Kansas	14	Baylor	59	Baylor -35.5	Baylor	0
2012	11/03	Baylor	41	Kansas	14
2011	11/12	Kansas	30	Baylor	31
2010	10/02	Baylor	55	Kansas	7
2007	10/13	Kansas	58	Baylor	10
2006	10/21	Baylor	36	Kansas	35
2003	10/18	Kansas	28	Baylor	21
2002	10/05	Baylor	35	Kansas	32

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	16	11	3 Overs
Kansas	2	0	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 6	6 - 5	5 - 0	1 - 5
Road Teams	6 - 12	5 - 6	5 - 1	0 - 5

(#41) KU at (#22) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	KU	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#41	#22
SP+SP+	#50	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#31	#51
OffenseOff	#8	#26
DefenseDef	#95	#110
Spec TeamsST	#8	#2
TalentTal	#60	#43
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#53

Kansas Notes(12/7) Elevated Jim Zebrowski to OC (Co-OC/QB's)
(12/6) OC Jeff Grimes left for Wisc OC job
(11/23) Killed CU. 1st losing team w/ 3 str top 25 wins
(11/18) Off awful (242 yds), outplayed @ BYU but found W
(11/13) Daniels great in ISU W, KU turning corner?
(11/13) Pass D torched, Run Def great vs ISU, Rgame great
(9/28) Pass D torched by TCU, Daniels awful. Sad team
(9/16) QB Daniels is electric but can't read Def. Big issue
(9/13) D OK vs UNLV, Off was awful, 2 TOs cost game
(9/8) Bad L @ Ill, 4 TOs. Run D played great though
(7/30) OL 2/5 return, big ??, RB has depth
(7/30) 6 win floor, game 2 vs Illinois very interesting
Kansas Injury Report

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

Kansas on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	KU Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#8	#110
SuccessSuc	#13	#118
ExplosiveExp	#7	#120
PPAPPA	#5	#130
PowerPwr	#3	#30
SP+SP+	#32	#63
Pts POPPO	#27	#116
HavocHav	#16	#55

Kansas Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	KU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#11	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#28	#98
Run ExplRExp	#36	#121
PPAExp	#20	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#25	#35
TackleTak	-	#87

Kansas Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	KU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#51	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#9	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#4	#107
PPAExp	#1	#131
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#113
F7 HavocF7	#30	#53
DB HavocDB	#26	#75

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	KU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#95
SuccessSuc	#102	#108
ExplosiveExp	#57	#32
PPAPPA	#90	#83
PowerPwr	#20	#98
SP+SP+	#25	#68
Pts POPPO	#118	#102
HavocHav	#98	#95

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	KU Def
Run GameRun	#37	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#101
Run ExplRExp	#53	#73
PPAExp	#101	#101
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#99
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#127
TackleTak	-	#101

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	KU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#86
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#102
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#23
PPAExp	#90	#47
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#102
F7 HavocF7	#103	#111
DB HavocDB	#77	#48

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

KU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Kansas 2.5 (62.5)
Baylor won vs Kansas this year (45-17)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Kansas in 2024 (45-17)

KU's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalon Daniels	171	300	57%	2454	14	12	8.2
Cole Ballard	5	6	83%	51	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Neal	219	1266	16	5.8	54
Jalon Daniels	93	447	6	4.8	33
Daniel Hishaw Jr.	65	376	3	5.8	32
Sevion Morrison	27	164	2	6.1	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luke Grimm	51	690	6	13.5	70
Quentin Skinner	25	557	4	22.3	62
Lawrence Arnold	26	360	1	13.8	40
Devin Neal	24	254	1	10.6	51

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC Brian Borland (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JB Brown	74	10	5	5	2
Cornell Wheeler	65	5	0	0	4
O.J. Burroughs	64	4	0	0	6
Marvin Grant	59	4	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jereme Robinson	21	9	6	5	0
JB Brown	74	10	5	5	2
Dean Miller	32	10	5	4	3
Marvin Grant	59	4	3	1	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacobee Bryant	37	4	1	0	7
O.J. Burroughs	64	4	0	0	6
Marvin Grant	59	4	3	1	6

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4