Texas Tech at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview
Texas Tech logo (#11)Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -2.5 (59.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Texas Tech 39 - Baylor: 14  (Big 12)

 
Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (20 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BAY is playing their 6th straight game
TTU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -9  (SP+ TTU -12.5)

Projected Score: TTU: 31 - BAY: 22 (53)
TTU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TTU Travel: 311 miles
Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 23 - 33 (21 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.050.5L 33 - 35ON
Sat 9/9 Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.570.0L 30 - 38UN
Sat 9/16 Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.575.5W 41 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.053.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 9/30 Texas Tech vs Houston-8.552.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Texas Tech at Baylor-2.559.5W 39 - 14UY
Sat 10/14 Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.057.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/21 Texas Tech at BYU-3.049.0L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2 Texas Tech vs TCU-2.559.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Texas Tech at Kansas+3.561.5W 16 - 13UY
Sat 11/18 Texas Tech vs UCF-2.059.0W 24 - 23UN
Fri 11/24 Texas Tech at Texas+16.553.5L 7 - 57ON
Sat 12/16 Texas Tech vs California-3.554.5W 34 - 14UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Baylor's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Baylor vs Texas State-26.558.5L 31 - 42ON
Sat 9/9 Baylor vs Utah+7.046.5L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Baylor vs Long Island University-44.054.0W 30 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Baylor vs Texas+17.549.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 9/30 Baylor at UCF+8.056.5W 36 - 35OY
Sat 10/7 Baylor vs Texas Tech+2.559.5L 14 - 39UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Baylor at Cincinnati+2.551.5W 32 - 29OY
Sat 10/28 Baylor vs Iowa State+3.047.0L 18 - 30ON
Sat 11/4 Baylor vs Houston-3.058.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/11 Baylor at Kansas State+20.555.5L 25 - 59ON
Sat 11/18 Baylor at TCU+13.062.0L 17 - 42UN
Sat 11/25 Baylor vs West Virginia+6.553.5L 31 - 34OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#92 (.15)42% (59)27.447% (26)3.36 (17)16339% (97)2243.91 (70)#51 (.16)41% (54)2642% (63)40% (51)3.46 (42)49.91.81.3
BAY#90 (.15)39% (102)23.140% (107)2.99 (91)11539% (90)2633.12 (118)#130 (.32)46% (118)33.346% (98)47% (123)4.36 (116)28.91.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Offense1327.420.342.5%3.911.8223871632244.547%51%47%39%15%.15
BAY Defense1233.329.445.7%4.361.3 - - - - - 54%45%46%47%17%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Defense132627.740.9%3.461.3 - - - - - 48%51%42%40%15%.16
BAY Offense1223.120.939.5%3.121.3203781152633.346%54%40%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas Tech1328:4521.940%65%5.449.91.81.35.22.2330
Baylor1231:4219.836%46%4.128.91.31.351.5228.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Offense1347% (90)47% (26)36.5162.84.517 (81).21 (32)3.36 (17)76% (47)7% (12)0.99 (69)
BAY Defense1254% (114)46% (98) - - - - .24 (115)3.27 (103)70% (51)11% (53)1.16 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Defense1348% (42)42% (63) - - - - .15 (73)3.14 (76)61% (11)9% (101)1 (74)
BAY Offense1246% (99)40% (107)34.4114.83.313 (108).09 (101)2.99 (91)74% (63)12% (103)1.03 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Offense1351% (46)39% (97)21.836.2223.86.210.224 (41)18 (128).16 (111)1.5 (116)30% (44)27% (94).24 (97)8% (118)1.9 (120)
BAY Defense1245% (21)47% (123) - - - - - - 7 (111).47 (131)1.7 (107)30% (101)38% (129).52 (130)6% (75)2.2 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Defense1351% (88)40% (51) - - - - - - 13 (26).21 (37)1.5 (22)30% (100)28% (42).32 (74)6% (71)2.2 (108)
BAY Offense1254% (31)39% (90)21.936.82637.11215 (96)7 (21).22 (90)1.6 (79)34% (109)26% (103).18 (111)6% (77)1.8 (123)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 2.60  #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06  #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91  #46
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 2.60   Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 3.7   Baylor: -8.8




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875  #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22  #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47  #127
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.7

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 31
Baylor 22


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 23
Baylor 20

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 27
Baylor 25

Total Points: 52
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.4

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Texas Tech35Baylor59Texas Tech -4.5Baylor56.0Over
202310/07Baylor14Texas Tech39Texas Tech -2.5Texas Tech59.5Under
202210/29Texas Tech17Baylor45Texas Tech -1.5Baylor61.0Over
202111/27Baylor27Texas Tech24Baylor -14Texas Tech51.5Under
202011/14Texas Tech24Baylor23Texas Tech -1Push54.5Under
201910/12Baylor33Texas Tech30Baylor -10.5Texas Tech58.5Over
201811/24Texas Tech24Baylor35Texas Tech -6Baylor63.5Under
201711/11Baylor24Texas Tech38Texas Tech -9.5Texas Tech67.5Under
201611/25Texas Tech54Baylor35Baylor -2.5Texas Tech83.0Over
201510/03Baylor63Texas Tech35Baylor -15.5Baylor88.0Over
201411/29Texas Tech46Baylor48Baylor -21.5Texas Tech0
201311/16Baylor63Texas Tech34Baylor -27Baylor0
201211/24Texas Tech45Baylor52
201111/26Baylor66Texas Tech42
201010/09Texas Tech45Baylor38
200911/28Baylor13Texas Tech20
200811/29Texas Tech35Baylor28
200711/03Baylor7Texas Tech38
200611/04Texas Tech55Baylor21
200510/29Baylor0Texas Tech28
200411/06Texas Tech42Baylor17
200311/08Baylor14Texas Tech62
200211/02Texas Tech62Baylor11
200110/27Baylor19Texas Tech63
200010/06Texas Tech28Baylor0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor1055 Overs
Texas Tech1565 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 124 - 72 - 52 - 2
Road Teams12 - 137 - 42 - 25 - 2

(#49) TTU at (#108) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTTUBAY
Power RatePwr #49 #108
SP+SP+ #52 #98
Perf GradeGrade #47 #100
OffenseOff #56 #82
DefenseDef #55 #123
Spec TeamsST #31 #18
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #43 #38
Texas Tech on Offense
CategoryCat
TTU OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #56 #123
SuccessSuc #59 #118
ExplosiveExp #107 #120
PPAPPA #92 #130
PowerPwr #81 #127
SP+SP+ #53 #105
Pts POPPO #70 #116
HavocHav #52 #55
Texas Tech Run Game
CategoryCat
TTU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #20 #126
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #98
Run ExplRExp #69 #121
PPAExp #32 #115
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #103
Stuff RateStuff #43 #35
TackleTak -  #103
Texas Tech Pass Game
CategoryCat
TTU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #114 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #123
Pass ExplPExl #116 #107
PPAExp #111 #131
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #6 #96
F7 HavocF7 #12 #53
DB HavocDB #118 #75
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCatBAY OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerf #82 #55
SuccessSuc #102 #54
ExplosiveExp #57 #40
PPAPPA #90 #51
PowerPwr #99 #46
SP+SP+ #78 #61
Pts POPPO #118 #42
HavocHav #98 #91
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #84 #69
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #63
Run ExplRExp #53 #74
PPAExp #101 #73
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #91 #76
Stuff RateStuff #80 #73
TackleTak -  #12
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCatBAY OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #82 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #51
Pass ExplPExl #79 #22
PPAExp #90 #37
Pass Block/RushP Blk #12 #75
F7 HavocF7 #103 #101
DB HavocDB #77 #71
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 67° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Texas Tech 2.5 (59.5)
Texas Tech won at Baylor this year (39-14)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Texas Tech last year (59-35)
Texas Tech beat Baylor in 2023 (39-14)
Baylor beat Texas Tech in 2022 (45-17)

  
TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton18229462%17541586.0
Tyler Shough6711160%746746.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Brooks2911545105.346
Cam'Ron Valdez5128015.554
Tyler Shough4814923.158
Jake Strong661010.254
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier White39556114.372
Jerand Bradley36431412.034
Coy Eakin36416211.643
Myles Price4341059.533

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Roberts1057130
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)775025
Dadrion Taylor722127
Jesiah Pierre662110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Bradford Jr.426410
Jaylon Hutchings427321
Amier Washington44300
Charles Esters III255321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)383008
Dadrion Taylor722127
Malik Dunlap361007

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen18429862%21881337.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)6611756%864247.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)12551914.232
Dawson Pendergrass7933854.331
Richard Reese6630624.628
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)356912.031
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Monaray Baldwin38623416.471
Drake Dabney33552516.763
Ketron Jackson (Tr)28489117.555
Jake Roberts (Tr)23231110.037

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones8413415
Devyn Bobby741016
Devin Lemear401003
Caden Jenkins371003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones8413415
Byron Vaughns (Tr)308301
TJ Franklin308331
Gabe Hall184241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devyn Bobby741016
Matt Jones8413415
Corey Gordon311004