Texas Tech at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -2.5 (59.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas Tech 39 - Baylor: 14 (Big 12)

Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 39 - 11 (37 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY is playing their 6th straight game
TTU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -9 (SP+ TTU -12.5)
Projected Score: TTU: 33 - BAY: 24 (57)
TTU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TTU Travel: 311 miles

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TTU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas Tech at Wyoming	-13.0	50.5	L 33 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Texas Tech vs Oregon	+4.5	70.0	L 30 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/16	Texas Tech vs Tarleton State	-36.5	75.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas Tech at West Virginia	-6.0	53.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas Tech vs Houston	-8.5	52.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas Tech at Baylor	-2.5	59.5	W 39 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Texas Tech vs Kansas State	-1.0	57.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/21	Texas Tech at BYU	-3.0	49.0	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	Texas Tech vs TCU	-2.5	59.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas Tech at Kansas	+3.5	61.5	W 16 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Texas Tech vs UCF	-2.0	59.0	W 24 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/24	Texas Tech at Texas	+16.5	53.5	L 7 - 57	O	N
Sat 12/16	Texas Tech vs California	-3.5	54.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TTU	.21	42%	39.4	47%	3.27	159	38%	302	3.92	.16	40%	11.3	42%	39%	3.51	44.3	1.9	1.7
BAY	.22	45%	31.1	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	32.6	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TTU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TTU Offense	13	39.4	36.6	41.8%	3.92	1.9	27	462	159	302	4	44%	56%	47%	38%	17%	.21
BAY Defense	13	32.6	27.9	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TTU Defense	13	11.3	13.4	40.1%	3.51	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	39%	15%	.16
BAY Offense	13	31.1	29.6	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas Tech	13	29:59	26.5	36%	64%	5.7	44.3	1.9	1.7	6.3	2.2	1	30.9
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TTU Offense	13	44%	47%	40.4	159.5	4	28	.29	3.27	78%	10%	1.11
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TTU Defense	13	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.88	64%	10%	1.06
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TTU Offense	13	56%	38%	26.8	43.8	302.1	6.9	11.3	26	18	.16	1.5	33%	32%	.4	7%	1.9
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TTU Defense	13	48%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.23	1.7	33%	33%	.39	5%	2
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 2.60 #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06 #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91 #46
2023 Talent Rating: 694.26 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 2.60 Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 3.7 Baylor: -8.8

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.6
Defense: 11.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.4

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 33
Baylor 24

Projected Total Points: 57

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Texas Tech	35	Baylor	59	Texas Tech -4.5	Baylor	56.0	Over
2023	10/07	Baylor	14	Texas Tech	39	Texas Tech -2.5	Texas Tech	59.5	Under
2022	10/29	Texas Tech	17	Baylor	45	Texas Tech -1.5	Baylor	61.0	Over
2021	11/27	Baylor	27	Texas Tech	24	Baylor -14	Texas Tech	51.5	Under
2020	11/14	Texas Tech	24	Baylor	23	Texas Tech -1	Push	54.5	Under
2019	10/12	Baylor	33	Texas Tech	30	Baylor -10.5	Texas Tech	58.5	Over
2018	11/24	Texas Tech	24	Baylor	35	Texas Tech -6	Baylor	63.5	Under
2017	11/11	Baylor	24	Texas Tech	38	Texas Tech -9.5	Texas Tech	67.5	Under
2016	11/25	Texas Tech	54	Baylor	35	Baylor -2.5	Texas Tech	83.0	Over
2015	10/03	Baylor	63	Texas Tech	35	Baylor -15.5	Baylor	88.0	Over
2014	11/29	Texas Tech	46	Baylor	48	Baylor -21.5	Texas Tech	0
2013	11/16	Baylor	63	Texas Tech	34	Baylor -27	Baylor	0
2012	11/24	Texas Tech	45	Baylor	52
2011	11/26	Baylor	66	Texas Tech	42
2010	10/09	Texas Tech	45	Baylor	38
2009	11/28	Baylor	13	Texas Tech	20
2008	11/29	Texas Tech	35	Baylor	28
2007	11/03	Baylor	7	Texas Tech	38
2006	11/04	Texas Tech	55	Baylor	21
2005	10/29	Baylor	0	Texas Tech	28
2004	11/06	Texas Tech	42	Baylor	17
2003	11/08	Baylor	14	Texas Tech	62
2002	11/02	Texas Tech	62	Baylor	11
2001	10/27	Baylor	19	Texas Tech	63
2000	10/06	Texas Tech	28	Baylor	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	10	5	5 Overs
Texas Tech	15	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 4	2 - 2	5 - 2

(#49) TTU at (#108) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TTU	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#49	#108
SP+SP+	#52	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#100
OffenseOff	#56	#82
DefenseDef	#55	#123
Spec TeamsST	#31	#18
TalentTal	#40	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#38

Texas Tech Injury Report

Baylor Injury Report

Texas Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	TTU Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#123
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#81	#127
SP+SP+	#53	#105
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#20	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Texas Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#6	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TTU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#55
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#99	#46
SP+SP+	#78	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#12

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#12	#75
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Texas Tech 2.5 (59.5)
Texas Tech won at Baylor this year (39-14)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Texas Tech in 2024 (59-35)
Texas Tech beat Baylor in 2023 (39-14)

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	182	294	62%	1754	15	8	6.0
Tyler Shough	67	111	60%	746	7	4	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	291	1545	10	5.3	46
Cam'Ron Valdez	51	280	1	5.5	54
Tyler Shough	48	149	2	3.1	58
Jake Strong	6	61	0	10.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier White	39	556	1	14.3	72
Jerand Bradley	36	431	4	12.0	34
Coy Eakin	36	416	2	11.6	43
Myles Price	43	410	5	9.5	33

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Roberts	105	7	1	3	0
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)	77	5	0	2	5
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Jesiah Pierre	66	2	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tony Bradford Jr.	42	6	4	1	0
Jaylon Hutchings	42	7	3	2	1
Amier Washington	4	4	3	0	0
Charles Esters III	25	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)	38	3	0	0	8
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Malik Dunlap	36	1	0	0	7

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4