Colorado at Baylor - 2026 Matchup Preview

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX (Big 12)

Buffaloes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Deion Sanders (16 - 21)
Avg Score : 21 - 31 (17 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#76)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)

COLO 2nd straight Road Game
BAY 3rd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
COLO is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -8 (SP+ BAY -10)
Projected Score: COLO: 25 - BAY: 33 (57)
BAY Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
COLO Travel: 741 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
COLO Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/3	Colorado at Georgia Tech	+12.5
Sat 9/12	Colorado vs Weber State	-22.5
Sat 9/19	Colorado at Northwestern	+7
Sat 9/26	Colorado at Baylor	+8
Sat 10/3	Colorado vs Texas Tech	+26
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Colorado vs Utah	+16.5
Sat 10/24	Colorado at Oklahoma State	+1
Sat 10/31	Colorado vs Kansas State	+6.5
Sat 11/7	Colorado at Arizona State	+10
Sat 11/14	Colorado vs Houston	+6.5
Sat 11/21	Colorado at Cincinnati	+6.5
Sat 11/28	Colorado vs UCF	+3

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado's Schedule

Baylor's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Baylor vs Auburn	+13.5
Sat 9/12	Baylor vs Prairie View A&M	-27.5
Sat 9/19	Baylor vs Louisiana Tech	-12.5
Sat 9/26	Baylor vs Colorado	-8
Sat 10/3	Baylor at Arizona State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Baylor vs TCU	+2.5
Sat 10/24	Baylor at Kansas	+2
Sat 10/31	Baylor at UCF	+2.5
Sat 11/7	Baylor vs Iowa State	+0.5
Sat 11/14	Baylor at BYU	+15.5
Sat 11/21	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+20.5
Sat 11/28	Baylor at Houston	+6

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO	#99 (.12)	35% (131)	20.9	35% (131)	2.68 (116)	127	35% (122)	203	3.48 (95)	#106 (.21)	43% (87)	30.5	44% (88)	43% (78)	4.01 (102)	49.9	1.4	1.3
BAY	#49 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (41)	310	3.69 (69)	#81 (.18)	44% (104)	32.6	46% (107)	43% (93)	4.3 (124)	61.4	2	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Offense	12	20.9	16.8	35.2%	3.48	1.4	17	329	127	203	3.6	49%	50%	35%	35%	20%	.12
BAY Defense	12	32.6	27.9	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Defense	12	30.5	35.4	43%	4.01	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	44%	43%	15%	.21
BAY Offense	12	31.1	29.6	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado	12	28:49	17.3	38%	33%	5.7	49.9	1.4	1.3	5	1.2	0	28.7
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Offense	12	49% (75)	35% (131)	35.3	126.7	3.6	15 (70)	.05 (103)	2.68 (116)	67% (97)	14% (133)	1.08 (27)
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (107)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Defense	12	60% (133)	44% (88)	-	-	-	-	.11 (72)	2.97 (81)	67% (37)	9% (80)	1.02 (97)
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (44)	3.09 (42)	77% (32)	8% (36)	0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Offense	12	50% (59)	35% (122)	17.5	29.7	202.8	6.8	11.6	17 (50)	11 (88)	.22 (84)	1.8 (9)	38% (136)	30% (70)	.32 (62)	6% (72)	2.1 (27)
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (71)	1.4 (13)	28% (122)	29% (65)	.24 (51)	6% (86)	1.7 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Defense	12	39% (4)	43% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (100)	.41 (127)	1.8 (132)	31% (77)	29% (70)	.32 (77)	6% (73)	2.2 (116)
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (41)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (67)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (28)	.42 (27)	6% (86)	2.1 (35)

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: 5.88 #54
Colorado's Offense Rating: 14.28 #63
Colorado's Defense Rating: 13.40 #50
2026 Talent Rating: 738.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 13% #30
Colorado's 2026 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Colorado's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #96
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #103
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #88

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado: 5.88 Baylor: 6.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado: -8.3 Baylor: 1.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 6.74 #50
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.89 #43
Baylor's Defense Rating: 13.81 #55
2026 Talent Rating: 862.00 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 30.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Colorado's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 33
Colorado 25

Projected Total Points: 57

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Colorado	38	Baylor	31	Colorado -2.5	Colorado	52.5	Over
2010	10/16	Colorado	25	Baylor	31
2007	10/06	Baylor	23	Colorado	43
2006	10/07	Colorado	31	Baylor	34
2003	10/04	Baylor	42	Colorado	30
2002	10/19	Colorado	34	Baylor	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	3	0	1 Overs
Colorado	3	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#54) COLO at (#50) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	COLO	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#54	#50
SP+SP+	#96	#71
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#70	#45
Blue ChipsBC%	#30	#39

Colorado Notes(2/14) Vibes: Shaky, '25 awful, Prime health, Seaton left
(2/25) DC left for NFL, Marve (VT DC) hired
(2/13) DTs Christensen & Hopper both v high PFF grades
(2/7) Prime dealing with real health issues
(2/7) QB Julian Lewis is back after a good Fr season
(2/7) 3 portal RBs could help, both Sac St backs?
(2/7) WR adds are really good/productive. Better unit
(2/7) OL 8 portals, 6 w starting exp. Could be decent?
(2/7) Def added 27 portals 11 DL, 5 LB, 11 DBs
(2/7) DL 6 G5 starters added, LBs actually look decent
(2/7) CBs could be good w all the portal adds. S is ?
(2/7) Def could really improve. Sneaky good portals
Colorado Injury Report

Baylor Notes(2/17) Vibes: Uneasy. Arada hot seat, QB/DC must hit
(2/17) RB Knighten & Turner back. Morris (Fr) big croot
(2/7) QB Lagway has talent, but inconsistent/inj history
(2/7) OC Spavital has big job to get Lagway's best
(2/7) New DC Klanderman (K St) great add to fix Def
(2/7) WR 4 portals must hit, no returning exp
(2/7) OL 6 have starting exp, 4 portals. Prod is ?
(2/7) DL added 5 portal starters. DT much improved
(2/7) CB could be good, S decent as well. 7 portals
Baylor Injury Report

Colorado on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#131	#104
ExplosiveExp	#4	#15
PPAPPA	#99	#81
PowerPwr	#63	#55
SP+SP+	#103	#110
Pts POPPO	#95	#124
HavocHav	#129	#126

Colorado Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#131	#107
Run ExplRExp	#27	#68
PPAExp	#103	#93
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#116	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#113	#123
TackleTak	-	NR

Colorado Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#122	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#9	#13
PPAExp	#84	#71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#133	#131
DB HavocDB	#72	#86

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	COLO Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#39	#87
ExplosiveExp	#53	#111
PPAPPA	#49	#106
PowerPwr	#43	#50
SP+SP+	#32	#88
Pts POPPO	#69	#102
HavocHav	#56	#80

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	COLO Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#88
Run ExplRExp	#99	#97
PPAExp	#44	#72
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#57
TackleTak	-	NR

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	COLO Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#132
PPAExp	#67	#127
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#36	#80
DB HavocDB	#86	#73

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

COLO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Colorado beat Baylor in 2024 (38-31)

COLO's OC Brennan Marion (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Lewis	52	94	55%	589	4	0	6.3
Dominiq Ponder	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damian Henderson II (Tr)	91	565	5	6.2	85
Jaquail Smith (Tr)	76	511	5	6.7	45
Micah Welch	96	384	4	4.0	44
Dekalon Taylor	19	83	0	4.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)	88	1297	10	14.7	72
Kamryn Perry	43	976	6	22.7	66
Ernest Campbell (Tr)	37	755	8	20.4	75
DeAndre Moore Jr. (Tr)	38	532	4	14.0	46

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Chris Marve (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
Naeten Mitchell (Tr)	92	2	0	0	7
Liona Lefau (Tr)	68	2	0	0	3
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	51	7	0	5	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)	41	11	5	10	2
Santana Hopper (Tr)	25	9	5	4	0
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)	34	7	4	7	1
Dylan Manuel (Tr)	37	7	3	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Justin Eaglin (Tr)	35	0	0	8
Naeten Mitchell (Tr)	92	2	0	7
Randon Fontenette (Tr)	51	7	5	6

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	71	136	1	1.9	38
Drelon Miller	46	134	1	2.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)	53	481	4	9.1	33
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)	28	313	1	11.2	45
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32
Caden Knighten	11	134	1	12.2	39

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)	39	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)	37	12	5	4	0
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jamaal Whyce	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	0	7
Stilton McKelvey (Tr)	18	2	0	0	5
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4