Oklahoma State at Baylor Game Matchup

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -7.0 (64.5) (-200) Open: -4.5 | 65.0
Baylor 38 - Oklahoma State: 28 (Big 12)

Cowboys (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (166 - 79)
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (24 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

OKST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Baylor -14 (SP+ BAY -11)
Projected Score: OKST: 24 - BAY: 38 (62)
BAY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 316 miles

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State	-9.5	54.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Oklahoma State vs Arkansas	-10.5	60.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oklahoma State at Tulsa	-17.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Oklahoma State vs Utah	+1.0	53.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/28	Oklahoma State at Kansas State	+6.0	58.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Oklahoma State vs West Virginia	-2.5	65.0	L 14 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Oklahoma State at BYU	+8.5	53.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Oklahoma State at Baylor	+7.0	64.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/2	Oklahoma State vs Arizona State	+5.0	57.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/9	Oklahoma State at TCU	+10.5	68.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech	+5.0	63.5	L 48 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/29	Oklahoma State at Colorado	+14.5	66.5	L 0 - 52	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 7, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	#69 (.19)	43% (53)	27.2	42% (78)	2.84 (115)	155	45% (33)	277	3.92 (63)	#116 (.26)	40% (43)	35.6	39% (33)	42% (71)	4.22 (107)	41.4	1.6	1.6
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	34.4	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	26.7	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	14	27.2	23.5	43.3%	3.92	1.6	22	432	155	277	4.8	42%	57%	42%	45%	14%	.19
BAY Defense	12	26.7	19.8	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	14	35.6	36.3	40.1%	4.22	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	39%	42%	15%	.26
BAY Offense	12	34.4	37.3	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	14	29:56	21.6	38%	55%	5	41.4	1.6	1.6	5.7	1.8	1	30.3
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	14	42% (118)	42% (78)	32.1	155.2	4.8	29 (22)	.14 (78)	2.84 (115)	65% (120)	7% (9)	1.1 (22)
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	14	50% (63)	39% (33)	-	-	-	-	.15 (74)	3 (49)	76% (87)	11% (48)	1.17 (123)
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	14	57% (15)	45% (33)	24.6	40.7	276.5	6.8	11.3	18 (81)	16 (121)	.27 (71)	1.5 (113)	31% (55)	34% (36)	.34 (66)	7% (101)	1.9 (114)
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	14	50% (74)	42% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.4 (119)	1.9 (131)	36% (11)	28% (32)	.29 (52)	4% (127)	2.3 (122)
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: 0.59 #59
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 25.18 #18
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 834.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Oklahoma State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Oklahoma State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #81
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #53
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #102

Oklahoma State's SP+ Ratings
Oklahoma State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #81
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #53
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #102

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 0.59 Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -2.6 Baylor: 8.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Baylor's SP+ Ratings
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.5
Defense: 35.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Oklahoma State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 38
Oklahoma State 24

Projected Total Points: 62

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Baylor	38	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor	Baylor -7.0	Baylor	64.5	Over
2022	10/01	Baylor	25	Oklahoma State	36	Oklahoma State	Baylor -2.5	Oklahoma State	56.0	Over
2021	12/04	Oklahoma State	16	Baylor	21	Baylor	Oklahoma State -7	Baylor	45.0	Under
2021	10/02	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State -3.5	Oklahoma State	47.0	Under
2020	12/12	Baylor	3	Oklahoma State	42	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State -6	Oklahoma State	49.5	Under
2019	10/19	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Baylor	Oklahoma State -5.5	Baylor	68.5	Over
2018	11/03	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	31	Baylor	Oklahoma State -6	Baylor	68.0	Under
2017	10/14	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	16	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State -26	Oklahoma State	68.5	Over
2016	09/24	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor	Baylor -10	Baylor	73.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oklahoma State	35	Baylor	45	Baylor	Baylor -3	Baylor	76.5	Over
2014	11/22	Baylor	49	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor	Baylor -25	Oklahoma State	0
2013	11/23	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	17	Oklahoma State	Baylor -13	Oklahoma State	0
2012	12/01	Baylor	41	Oklahoma State	34	Baylor
2011	10/29	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	24	Oklahoma State
2010	11/06	Oklahoma State	55	Baylor	28	Oklahoma State
2009	10/24	Baylor	7	Oklahoma State	34	Oklahoma State
2008	10/18	Oklahoma State	34	Baylor	6	Oklahoma State
2007	11/17	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State	45	Oklahoma State
2006	11/11	Oklahoma State	66	Baylor	24	Oklahoma State
2005	11/19	Baylor	44	Oklahoma State	34	Baylor
2004	11/13	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State
2003	11/22	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State	38	Oklahoma State
2001	11/17	Baylor	22	Oklahoma State	38	Oklahoma State
2000	11/17	Oklahoma State	50	Baylor	22	Oklahoma State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	9	6	5 Overs
Oklahoma State	15	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	6 - 6	4 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 15	6 - 6	2 - 2	4 - 4

(#59) Oklahoma State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.59 #59
Offense Rating: 25.18 #18
Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #81
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #102
Talent Rating: 834.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 46%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oklahoma State Notes
(11/29) What does Gundy do to reset? Or does he?
(11/29) Killed by Buffs 52-0. OG'd 471-147. QB/RB awful
(11/29) 18 yr bowl streak over, was 2nd longest in CFB
(11/23) Fight w/ TT, QB Smith great, Def abysmal
(11/13) Quit. Awful vs TCU, Def is shockingly awful
(11/3) Pokes Def is worst in P4 and near worst in CFB
(11/2) Team has Quit. Have all 40 ppg in B12 play.
(10/19) Rangel inj vs BYU, out 'a while'. Bowman back
(10/19) Monitor for quit watch after BYU collapse
(10/18) QB Bowman benched, SO Rangel (FR Flores?)

Oklahoma State Ratings Matchup Baylor

Power #59

#22

Off #18

#20

Def #105

#30

Talent #25

#39

SP+ #81

#38

SP+ Off #53

#25

SP+ Def #102

#63

Rematch from Week 9
Baylor -7.0 (64.5)
Baylor won vs Oklahoma State this year (38-28)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (38-28)
Oklahoma State beat Baylor in 2022 (36-25)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: OKST | BAY
Depth Chart: OKST | BAY
Rosters: OKST | BAY

(#22) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great

Oklahoma State's OC Kasey Dunn

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maealiuaki Smith	44	75	59%	499	2	4	6.7
Garret Rangel	17	33	52%	192	2	1	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trenten Howland	41	230	1	5.6	23
Sesi Vailahi	42	99	2	2.4	11
Rodney Fields Jr.	21	99	1	4.7	22
Garret Rangel	9	91	0	10.1	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
De'Zhaun Stribling	52	892	6	17.2	77
Talyn Shettron	12	245	1	20.4	78
Da'Wain Lofton (Tr)	6	140	0	23.3	56
Josh Ford	10	92	1	9.2	26

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

Oklahoma State's DC Bryan Nardo

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendal Daniels	64	11	6	3	7
Jeff Roberson	58	9	3	7	0
Parker Robertson	49	2	0	0	1
Obi Ezeigbo (Tr)	42	9	3	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendal Daniels	64	11	6	3	7
Obi Ezeigbo (Tr)	42	9	3	4	0
Jeff Roberson	58	9	3	7	0
Jaleel Johnson	21	3	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendal Daniels	64	11	6	3	7
Cam Smith	34	1	0	0	7
Kale Smith	31	0	0	0	5

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Michael Trigg (Tr)	30	395	3	13.2	42
Bryson Washington	22	217	1	9.9	23

View Baylor's Full Roster

Baylor's DC Matt Powledge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0
Carl Williams IV	36	6	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Steve Linton (Tr)	26	7	3	3	0
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0
Carl Williams IV	36	6	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	10
Caden Jenkins	25	0	4
Corey Gordon	33	2	2