Oklahoma State at Baylor - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -7.0 (64.5) (-200) Open: -4.5 | 65.0
Baylor 38 - Oklahoma State: 28 (Big 12)

Cowboys (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (166 - 79)
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (24 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

OKST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Baylor -14 (SP+ BAY -11)
Projected Score: OKST: 25 - BAY: 39 (63)
BAY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 316 miles

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State	-9.5	54.0	W 44 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Oklahoma State vs Arkansas	-10.5	60.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oklahoma State at Tulsa	-17.5	62.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Oklahoma State vs Utah	+1.0	53.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/28	Oklahoma State at Kansas State	+6.0	58.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Oklahoma State vs West Virginia	-2.5	65.0	L 14 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Oklahoma State at BYU	+8.5	53.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Oklahoma State at Baylor	+7.0	64.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/2	Oklahoma State vs Arizona State	+5.0	57.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/9	Oklahoma State at TCU	+10.5	68.5	L 13 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech	+5.0	63.5	L 48 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/29	Oklahoma State at Colorado	+14.5	66.5	L 0 - 52	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	#52 (.21)	43% (63)	27.2	43% (86)	2.79 (107)	114	44% (47)	265	4.22 (42)	#131 (.34)	46% (109)	35.6	47% (107)	44% (108)	3.93 (82)	43.2	1.8	1.3
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	34.4	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	26.7	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	#52 (.21)	43% (63)		43% (86)	2.79 (107)	114	44% (47)	265	4.22 (42)	#131 (.34)	46% (109)		47% (107)	44% (108)	3.93 (82)	43.2	1.8	1.3
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	12	27.2	23.5	43.1%	4.22	1.8	20	379	114	265	3.9	42%	58%	43%	44%	15%	.21
BAY Defense	13	26.7	19.8	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	12	35.6	36.3	45.6%	3.93	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	44%	15%	.34
BAY Offense	13	34.4	37.3	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	12	27:03	20.4	35%	65%	5	43.2	1.8	1.3	5.5	2.1	1	27.1
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	12	42% (117)	43% (86)	29.4	114.2	3.9	18 (78)	.04 (109)	2.79 (107)	74% (61)	7% (19)	0.87 (119)
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	12	50% (65)	47% (107)	-	-	-	-	.31 (133)	3.43 (126)	73% (68)	8% (112)	1.25 (133)
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	12	58% (17)	44% (47)	22.3	37.5	264.7	7.1	11.9	22 (46)	17 (127)	.34 (30)	1.6 (67)	31% (66)	31% (82)	.32 (77)	7% (109)	1.9 (99)
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	12	50% (73)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.37 (123)	1.8 (124)	32% (56)	36% (119)	.46 (120)	6% (53)	2.1 (88)
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: 0.59 #59
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 25.18 #18
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Oklahoma State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Oklahoma State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #81
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #53
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #102

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 0.59 Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -2.6 Baylor: 8.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.5
Defense: 35.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Oklahoma State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 39
Oklahoma State 25

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 34
Oklahoma State 30

Total Points: 65

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 36
Oklahoma State 24

Total Points: 60

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Baylor -21	Oklahoma State	58.5	Over
2024	10/26	Baylor	38	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor -7.0	Baylor	64.5	Over
2022	10/01	Baylor	25	Oklahoma State	36	Baylor -2.5	Oklahoma State	56.0	Over
2021	12/04	Oklahoma State	16	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State -7	Baylor	45.0	Under
2021	10/02	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State -3.5	Oklahoma State	47.0	Under
2020	12/12	Baylor	3	Oklahoma State	42	Oklahoma State -6	Oklahoma State	49.5	Under
2019	10/19	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Oklahoma State -5.5	Baylor	68.5	Over
2018	11/03	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	31	Oklahoma State -6	Baylor	68.0	Under
2017	10/14	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	16	Oklahoma State -26	Oklahoma State	68.5	Over
2016	09/24	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor -10	Baylor	73.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oklahoma State	35	Baylor	45	Baylor -3	Baylor	76.5	Over
2014	11/22	Baylor	49	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor -25	Oklahoma State	0
2013	11/23	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	17	Baylor -13	Oklahoma State	0
2012	12/01	Baylor	41	Oklahoma State	34
2011	10/29	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	24
2010	11/06	Oklahoma State	55	Baylor	28
2009	10/24	Baylor	7	Oklahoma State	34
2008	10/18	Oklahoma State	34	Baylor	6
2007	11/17	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State	45
2006	11/11	Oklahoma State	66	Baylor	24
2005	11/19	Baylor	44	Oklahoma State	34
2004	11/13	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	21
2003	11/22	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State	38
2001	11/17	Baylor	22	Oklahoma State	38
2000	11/17	Oklahoma State	50	Baylor	22

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	10	6	6 Overs
Oklahoma State	15	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#59) OKST at (#22) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKST	BAY
Power RatePwr	#59	#22
SP+SP+	#81	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#103	#51
OffenseOff	#65	#26
DefenseDef	#128	#110
Spec TeamsST	#49	#2
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#53

Oklahoma State Notes
(12/10) Hired DC Todd Grantham (NFL, Florida)
(11/29) What does Gundy do to reset? Or does he?
(11/29) Killed by Buffs 52-0. OG'd 471-147. QB/RB awful
(11/29) 18 yr bowl streak over, was 2nd longest in CFB
(11/23) Fight w/ TT, QB Smith great, Def abysmal
(11/13) Quit. Awful vs TCU, Def is shockingly awful
(11/3) Pokes Def is worst in P4 and near worst in CFB
(11/2) Team has Quit. Have all 40 ppg in B12 play.
(10/19) Rangel inj vs BYU, out 'a while'. Bowman back
(10/19) Monitor for quit watch after BYU collapse
(10/18) QB Bowman benched, SO Rangel (FR Flores?)

Baylor Notes
(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great

Oklahoma State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#65	#110
SuccessSuc	#63	#38
ExplosiveExp	#69	#102
PPAPPA	#52	#74
PowerPwr	#18	#30
SP+SP+	#53	#63
Pts POPPO	#42	#77
HavocHav	#45	#83

Oklahoma State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#92	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#13
Run ExplRExp	#119	#92
PPAExp	#109	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#70	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#90
TackleTak	-	#87

Oklahoma State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#101	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#47	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#99
PPAExp	#30	#80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#4	#113
F7 HavocF7	#19	#84
DB HavocDB	#109	#80

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#128
SuccessSuc	#23	#109
ExplosiveExp	#49	#132
PPAPPA	#29	#131
PowerPwr	#20	#105
SP+SP+	#25	#102
Pts POPPO	#30	#82
HavocHav	#17	#89

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#37	#128
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#107
Run ExplRExp	#50	#133
PPAExp	#41	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#119
TackleTak	-	#122

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#119
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#124
PPAExp	#21	#123
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#126
F7 HavocF7	#9	#112
DB HavocDB	#55	#53

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Baylor -7.0 (64.5)
Baylor won vs Oklahoma State this year (38-28)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (38-28)
Oklahoma State beat Baylor in 2022 (36-25)

OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alan Bowman	204	340	60%	2442	17	12	7.2
Maealiuaki Smith	44	75	59%	499	2	4	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ollie Gordon	189	858	12	4.5	68
Trenten Howland	41	230	1	5.6	23
Sesi Vailahi	42	99	2	2.4	11
Rodney Fields Jr.	21	99	1	4.7	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
De'Zhaun Stribling	52	892	6	17.2	77
Brennan Presley	89	764	7	8.6	36
Rashod Owens	32	515	4	16.1	58
Talyn Shettron	12	245	1	20.4	78

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Bryan Nardo (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Rucker	84	1	0	0	1
Kendal Daniels	64	11	6	3	7
Jeff Roberson	58	9	3	7	0
Parker Robertson	49	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendal Daniels	64	11	6	3	7
Jeff Roberson	58	9	3	7	0
Obi Ezeigbo (Tr)	42	9	3	4	0
Xavier Ross	12	3	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Korie Black	36	0	0	0	9
Kendal Daniels	64	11	6	3	7
Cam Smith	34	1	0	0	7

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4