Baylor at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Arizona WildcatsArizona logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (1:00 PM EST)
Arizona -6.5 (61.5) (-238)  Open: -6.5
Arizona 41 - Baylor: 17  (Big 12)

 
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 13.7 MPH
ARIZ is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arizona -6.5  (SP+ ARIZ -13)

Projected Score: BAY: 27 - ARIZ: 33 (60)
ARIZ Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BAY Travel: 812 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (9 - 3) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 19 (35 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Arizona's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona vs Hawai'i-13.555.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/6 Arizona vs Weber State-31.556.5W 48 - 3UY
Fri 9/12 Arizona vs Kansas State+1.555.5W 23 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Arizona at Iowa State+4.048.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/4 Arizona vs Oklahoma State-21.556.5W 41 - 13UY
Sat 10/11 Arizona vs BYU+2.546.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona at Houston-1.547.5L 28 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Arizona at Colorado-4.052.5W 52 - 17OY
Sat 11/8 Arizona vs Kansas-5.556.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 Arizona at Cincinnati+6.556.5W 30 - 24UY
Sat 11/22 Arizona vs Baylor-6.561.5W 41 - 17UY
Fri 11/28 Arizona at Arizona State-2.048.5W 23 - 7UY
Fri 1/2 Arizona vs SMU+1.052.0

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#50 (.2)45% (39)31.147% (38)3.09 (42)14244% (40)3103.69 (70)#81 (.18)44% (105)32.646% (108)43% (91)4.3 (125)61.420.9
ARIZ#49 (.2)43% (63)32.642% (92)3.05 (49)15143% (51)2543.57 (81)#34 (.09)38% (26)18.945% (96)33% (6)3.38 (46)51.612.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1231.133.245%3.692254511423104.240%59%47%44%15%.2
ARIZ Defense1218.915.638.2%3.382.3 - - - - - 52%46%45%33%21%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1232.639.244.3%4.30.9 - - - - - 56%42%46%43%12%.18
ARIZ Offense1232.634.942.5%3.571224051512544.346%54%42%43%15%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1229:1524.838%53%661.420.941128.5
Arizona1230:452240%67%5.651.612.36.51.8234.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1240% (129)47% (38)34.1141.64.212 (88).17 (43)3.09 (42)77% (33)8% (38)0.9 (96)
ARIZ Defense1252% (92)45% (96) - - - - .11 (73)2.85 (61)72% (75)11% (20)0.92 (45)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1256% (129)46% (108) - - - - .14 (92)3.15 (111)89% (134)7% (131)0.96 (69)
ARIZ Offense1246% (100)42% (92)35.3150.84.320 (88).13 (61)3.05 (49)76% (46)9% (64)1.05 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1259% (8)44% (40)25.842.5309.67.31231 (3)12 (88).25 (69)1.5 (80)31% (58)33% (30).42 (28)6% (84)2.1 (34)
ARIZ Defense1246% (35)33% (6) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (27)1.6 (107)33% (42)24% (13).18 (25)9% (2)2.1 (89)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1242% (9)43% (91) - - - - - - 9 (55).25 (72)1.4 (14)28% (123)29% (64).24 (52)6% (87)1.7 (8)
ARIZ Offense1254% (29)43% (51)21.133.7254.47.612.126 (14)7 (88).26 (63)1.5 (90)31% (64)31% (67).41 (30)6% (59)2.1 (40)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.31  #44
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.84  #35
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.53  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.7  #69
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #30
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 9.31   Arizona: 11.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 0.7   Arizona: 13.9




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 11.495  #55
Arizona's Offense Rating: 10.86  #58
Arizona's Defense Rating: 6.77  #57
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9  #25
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 33
Baylor 27


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 34
Baylor 25

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 35
Baylor 25

Total Points: 60
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 32.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.9
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Arizona41Baylor17Arizona -6.5Arizona61.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona110 Overs
Baylor001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#44) BAY at (#55) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYARIZ
Power RatePwr #44 #55
SP+SP+ #69 #25
Perf GradeGrade #77 #37
OffenseOff #57 #59
DefenseDef #101 #18
Spec TeamsST #11 #95
TalentTal #24 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #65
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Arizona Notes
(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #57 #18
SuccessSuc #39 #26
ExplosiveExp #53 #42
PPAPPA #50 #34
PowerPwr #35 #57
SP+SP+ #30 #24
Pts POPPO #70 #46
HavocHav #57 #5
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffARIZ Def
Run GameRun #92 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #96
Run ExplRExp #96 #45
PPAExp #43 #73
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLY #42 #61
Stuff RateStuff #28 #72
TackleTak -  #45
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePass #60 #3
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #6
Pass ExplPExl #80 #107
PPAExp #69 #27
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #89 #122
F7 HavocF7 #38 #20
DB HavocDB #84 #2
Arizona on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #59 #101
SuccessSuc #63 #105
ExplosiveExp #40 #16
PPAPPA #49 #81
PowerPwr #58 #56
SP+SP+ #26 #108
Pts POPPO #81 #125
HavocHav #59 #127
Arizona Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #76 #120
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #108
Run ExplRExp #34 #69
PPAExp #61 #92
Run BlockR Blk #63 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #111
Stuff RateStuff #70 #125
TackleTak -  #39
Arizona Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatARIZ OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #31 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #51 #91
Pass ExplPExl #90 #14
PPAExp #63 #72
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #111
F7 HavocF7 #64 #131
DB HavocDB #59 #87
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 72° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Arizona -6.5 (61.5)
Arizona won vs Baylor this year (41-17)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita24738664%29632657.7
Braedyn Locke (Tr)51533%68014.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)12278546.468
Kedrick Reescano8339494.750
Quincy Craig (Tr)5533526.154
Noah Fifita10214931.519
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)57740413.040
Javin Whatley (Tr)38443411.785
Tre Spivey (Tr)21359617.170
Chris Hunter25351214.035

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson972107
Taye Brown849231
Genesis Smith773018
Max Harris (Tr)754051
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chase Kennedy398460
Riley Wilson (Tr)497344
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)2611220
Taye Brown849231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Genesis Smith773018
Ayden Garnes (Tr)341028
Michael Dansby (Tr)171008