Baylor at Arizona - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (1:00 PM EST)
Arizona -6.5 (61.5) (-238) Open: -6.5
Arizona 41 - Baylor: 17 (Big 12)

Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

ARIZ is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arizona -4 (SP+ ARIZ -11)
Projected Score: BAY: 28 - ARIZ: 32 (61)
ARIZ Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
BAY Travel: 812 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (35 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
ARIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Baylor vs Auburn	+1.5	57.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Baylor at SMU	+3.0	65.5	W 48 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Baylor vs Samford	-51.5	65.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/20	Baylor vs Arizona State	-3.0	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/27	Baylor at Oklahoma State	-21.0	58.5	W 45 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/4	Baylor vs Kansas State	-4.5	59.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Baylor at TCU	+3.5	66.5	L 36 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Baylor at Cincinnati	+3.5	68.5	L 20 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/1	Baylor vs UCF	-3.0	58.5	W 30 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Baylor vs Utah	+9.5	60.5	L 28 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/22	Baylor at Arizona	+6.5	61.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/29	Baylor vs Houston	-2.5	57.5	L 24 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Arizona's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arizona vs Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Arizona vs Weber State	-31.5	56.5	W 48 - 3	U	Y
Fri 9/12	Arizona vs Kansas State	+1.5	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Arizona at Iowa State	+4.0	48.5	L 14 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/4	Arizona vs Oklahoma State	-21.5	56.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Arizona vs BYU	+2.5	46.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/18	Arizona at Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Arizona at Colorado	-4.0	52.5	W 52 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Arizona vs Kansas	-5.5	56.5	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	Arizona at Cincinnati	+6.5	56.5	W 30 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Arizona vs Baylor	-6.5	61.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Arizona at Arizona State	-2.0	48.5	W 23 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/2	Arizona vs SMU	+2.5	55.5	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	31.1	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	32.6	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)	31.5	37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)	19.3	45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	31.1	33.2	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25
ARIZ Defense	12	19.3	15.6	44.6%	4.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	44%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	32.6	39.2	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18
ARIZ Offense	12	31.5	34.9	38.5%	3.53	1.7	19	355	107	248	3.9	39%	61%	37%	40%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5
Arizona	12	29:45	18.5	43%	42%	6.5	57.6	1.7	1.2	4.8	1.7	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)
ARIZ Defense	12	51% (73)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.18 (100)	3.32 (115)	78% (99)	9% (94)	1.08 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)
ARIZ Offense	12	39% (127)	37% (126)	27.4	106.7	3.9	11 (116)	.03 (112)	2.64 (123)	55% (134)	9% (59)	1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)
ARIZ Defense	12	48% (61)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.31 (103)	1.6 (66)	31% (88)	32% (95)	.39 (101)	5% (93)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)
ARIZ Offense	12	61% (8)	40% (91)	21.8	36.4	247.9	6.8	11.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.22 (88)	1.6 (44)	36% (124)	31% (70)	.33 (71)	6% (88)	2.1 (35)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.66 #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.66 Arizona: 10.995

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 Arizona: 12.0

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 10.995 #50
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.18 #45
Arizona's Defense Rating: 12.19 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.0 #28
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #29
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5 #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 32
Baylor 28

Projected Total Points: 61

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.9
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Arizona	41	Baylor	17	Arizona -6.5	Arizona	61.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona	1	1	0 Overs
Baylor	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#30) BAY at (#50) ARIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	ARIZ
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#50
SP+SP+	#71	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#78	#31
OffenseOff	#61	#55
DefenseDef	#100	#13
Spec TeamsST	#5	#88
TalentTal	#24	#73
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#65

Baylor Notes(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report

Arizona Notes(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ARIZ Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#13
SuccessSuc	#23	#100
ExplosiveExp	#49	#96
PPAPPA	#29	#109
PowerPwr	#20	#57
SP+SP+	#32	#25
Pts POPPO	#30	#125
HavocHav	#17	#99

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#92	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#90
Run ExplRExp	#50	#109
PPAExp	#41	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#102
TackleTak	-	#47

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#66
PPAExp	#21	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#84	#111
F7 HavocF7	#9	#94
DB HavocDB	#55	#93

Arizona on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#55	#100
SuccessSuc	#117	#38
ExplosiveExp	#3	#102
PPAPPA	#93	#74
PowerPwr	#45	#43
SP+SP+	#29	#110
Pts POPPO	#101	#77
HavocHav	#65	#83

Arizona Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#73	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#126	#13
Run ExplRExp	#6	#92
PPAExp	#112	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#90
TackleTak	-	#38

Arizona Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#99
PPAExp	#88	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#54	#124
F7 HavocF7	#59	#84
DB HavocDB	#88	#80

Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Arizona -6.5 (61.5)
Arizona won vs Baylor this year (41-17)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Baylor last year (41-17)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	304	503	60%	3681	31	12	7.3
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	154	788	6	5.1	41
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
Joseph Dodds	26	104	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	69	872	9	12.6	48
Michael Trigg	50	694	6	13.9	42
Ashtyn Hawkins	53	621	0	11.7	41
Kole Wilson (Tr)	44	591	5	13.4	64

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Devyn Bobby	77	2	0	0	2
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Jackie Marshall	30	6	2	0	0
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Travion Barnes (Tr)	11	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	7
DJ Coleman	41	4	3	4
Caldra Williford (Tr)	16	1	0	4

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	275	429	64%	3228	29	6	7.5
Braedyn Locke (Tr)	5	15	33%	68	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	133	853	4	6.4	68
Kedrick Reescano	84	396	9	4.7	50
Quincy Craig (Tr)	65	364	2	5.6	54
Noah Fifita	115	222	3	1.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)	60	764	4	12.7	40
Javin Whatley (Tr)	41	490	5	12.0	85
Tre Spivey (Tr)	23	381	7	16.6	70
Chris Hunter	27	372	2	13.8	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	97	2	1	0	7
Taye Brown	93	9	2	3	1
Max Harris (Tr)	78	4	0	7	1
Genesis Smith	77	3	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chase Kennedy	42	8	4	7	0
Riley Wilson (Tr)	51	8	3	5	4
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)	26	11	2	2	0
Taye Brown	93	9	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Dansby (Tr)	19	1	0	10
Ayden Garnes (Tr)	43	2	2	8
Genesis Smith	77	3	1	8