Baylor at Texas Tech - 2024 Matchup Preview

Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#7)

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -4.5 (56.0) (-185) Open: -7.5
Baylor 59 - Texas Tech: 35 (Big 12)

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 20.5 MPH
BAY coming off BYE
TTU coming off BYE
Our Line: Baylor -4.5 (SP+ BAY -4)
Projected Score: BAY: 33 - TTU: 29 (62)
TTU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 311 miles

Red Raiders (8 - 5) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Joey McGuire (15 - 11)
Avg Score : 38 - 35 (44 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian	-34.5	58.5	W 52 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/7	Texas Tech at Washington State	-2.5	64.5	L 16 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/14	Texas Tech vs North Texas	-10.5	70.5	W 66 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas Tech vs Arizona State	-4.5	58.5	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas Tech vs Cincinnati	-3.0	60.0	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Texas Tech at Arizona	+6.0	64.0	W 28 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Texas Tech vs Baylor	-4.5	56.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/26	Texas Tech at TCU	+5.0	66.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Texas Tech at Iowa State	+13.5	55.0	W 23 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Texas Tech vs Colorado	+5.0	62.0	L 27 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Texas Tech at Oklahoma State	-5.0	63.5	W 56 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Texas Tech vs West Virginia	-2.5	61.5	W 52 - 15	O	Y
Fri 12/27	Texas Tech vs Arkansas	-3.5	52.5	L 26 - 39	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	34.4	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	26.7	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)	37.6	45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)	34.8	44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)		45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)		44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	34.4	32	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25
TTU Defense	13	34.8	35.7	43.6%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	44%	44%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	26.7	30.7	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18
TTU Offense	13	37.6	43.7	44.2%	4.73	1.5	23	425	150	275	4.5	45%	55%	45%	43%	14%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5
Texas Tech	13	27:50	22.8	49%	52%	7	59.4	1.5	1.6	4.6	1.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)
TTU Defense	13	45% (16)	44% (76)	-	-	-	-	.12 (69)	2.75 (30)	62% (14)	8% (108)	1.08 (111)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)
TTU Offense	13	45% (104)	45% (49)	33.2	149.6	4.5	24 (45)	.17 (46)	3.17 (45)	72% (81)	8% (38)	1.05 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)
TTU Defense	13	54% (120)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.33 (108)	1.7 (106)	31% (91)	36% (120)	.45 (116)	4% (124)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)
TTU Offense	13	55% (27)	43% (51)	24.3	38.6	275.4	7.1	11.3	30 (9)	9 (48)	.31 (44)	1.6 (77)	32% (81)	34% (39)	.39 (45)	6% (66)	2 (89)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 Texas Tech: 5.695

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 Texas Tech: 4.3

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 5.695 #55
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 22.17 #49
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 13.59 #99
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Texas Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #54
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 33
Texas Tech 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 40
Baylor 27

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 35
Baylor 34

Total Points: 69

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.7

Texas Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Texas Tech	35	Baylor	59	Texas Tech -4.5	Baylor	56.0	Over
2023	10/07	Baylor	14	Texas Tech	39	Texas Tech -2.5	Texas Tech	59.5	Under
2022	10/29	Texas Tech	17	Baylor	45	Texas Tech -1.5	Baylor	61.0	Over
2021	11/27	Baylor	27	Texas Tech	24	Baylor -14	Texas Tech	51.5	Under
2020	11/14	Texas Tech	24	Baylor	23	Texas Tech -1	Push	54.5	Under
2019	10/12	Baylor	33	Texas Tech	30	Baylor -10.5	Texas Tech	58.5	Over
2018	11/24	Texas Tech	24	Baylor	35	Texas Tech -6	Baylor	63.5	Under
2017	11/11	Baylor	24	Texas Tech	38	Texas Tech -9.5	Texas Tech	67.5	Under
2016	11/25	Texas Tech	54	Baylor	35	Baylor -2.5	Texas Tech	83.0	Over
2015	10/03	Baylor	63	Texas Tech	35	Baylor -15.5	Baylor	88.0	Over
2014	11/29	Texas Tech	46	Baylor	48	Baylor -21.5	Texas Tech	0
2013	11/16	Baylor	63	Texas Tech	34	Baylor -27	Baylor	0
2012	11/24	Texas Tech	45	Baylor	52
2011	11/26	Baylor	66	Texas Tech	42
2010	10/09	Texas Tech	45	Baylor	38
2009	11/28	Baylor	13	Texas Tech	20
2008	11/29	Texas Tech	35	Baylor	28
2007	11/03	Baylor	7	Texas Tech	38
2006	11/04	Texas Tech	55	Baylor	21
2005	10/29	Baylor	0	Texas Tech	28
2004	11/06	Texas Tech	42	Baylor	17
2003	11/08	Baylor	14	Texas Tech	62
2002	11/02	Texas Tech	62	Baylor	11
2001	10/27	Baylor	19	Texas Tech	63
2000	10/06	Texas Tech	28	Baylor	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	15	6	5 Overs
Baylor	10	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 4	2 - 2	5 - 2

(#22) BAY at (#55) TTU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	TTU
Power RatePwr	#22	#55
SP+SP+	#38	#54
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#84
OffenseOff	#26	#40
DefenseDef	#110	#122
Spec TeamsST	#2	#24
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#33

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

Texas Tech Notes(12/5) Hired Tex St OC Mack Leftwich
(11/23) Morton torched bad Pokes. Pass Def was awful
(11/13) 10-0 lead gone vs CU, Rgame bad, Morton OK
(11/2) Big W @ ISU, still had 10 flags, 2 TOs, outgained
(10/30) QB Morton to start vs Iowa State
(10/30) Gagged 31-14 lead vs TCU, backup QB TOs cost
(10/27) QB Morton inj, Fr Hammond took over vs TCU
(10/19) Typical Tech, killed by Baylor. Shit coach/team
(10/7) 3 big W's. Morton is hot, Pass & Run game decent
(9/23) QB Morton meh, Def better in W vs ASU
(9/8) D allowed 301 yds rushing vs Wazzu. 4 TOs. Woof
(9/1) Def Awful, Abl Chris 506 yds passing, 51 pts in OT W,
Texas Tech Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TTU Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#122
SuccessSuc	#23	#93
ExplosiveExp	#49	#120
PPAPPA	#29	#104
PowerPwr	#20	#99
SP+SP+	#25	#95
Pts POPPO	#30	#83
HavocHav	#17	#123

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#37	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#76
Run ExplRExp	#50	#111
PPAExp	#41	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#35
TackleTak	-	#133

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#106
PPAExp	#21	#108
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#108
F7 HavocF7	#9	#108
DB HavocDB	#55	#124

Texas Tech on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#40	#110
SuccessSuc	#50	#38
ExplosiveExp	#40	#102
PPAPPA	#33	#74
PowerPwr	#49	#30
SP+SP+	#25	#63
Pts POPPO	#7	#77
HavocHav	#36	#83

Texas Tech Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#46	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#13
Run ExplRExp	#42	#92
PPAExp	#46	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#90
TackleTak	-	#87

Texas Tech Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#99
PPAExp	#44	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#113
F7 HavocF7	#38	#84
DB HavocDB	#66	#80

Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70° - Wind: 21 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Texas Tech -4.5 (56.0)
Baylor won at Texas Tech this year (59-35)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Texas Tech last year (59-35)
Texas Tech beat Baylor in 2023 (39-14)
Baylor beat Texas Tech in 2022 (45-17)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	293	463	63%	3300	27	8	7.1
Will Hammond	15	23	65%	191	1	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	286	1505	17	5.3	40
Cameron Dickey	25	150	1	6.0	37
J'Koby Williams	26	113	1	4.3	13
Cameran Brown (Tr)	8	83	0	10.4	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Kelly (Tr)	89	1023	5	11.5	41
Caleb Douglas (Tr)	55	765	6	13.9	57
Coy Eakin	45	605	6	13.4	70
Jalin Conyers (Tr)	25	271	5	10.8	36

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Ben Roberts	74	5	0	4	0
C.J. Baskerville	60	3	0	0	3
Maurion Horn	46	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Terrell Tilmon	8	4	4	0	0
Isaac Smith	31	4	3	1	0
Harvey Dyson III	10	3	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurion Horn	46	2	0	1	4
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
C.J. Baskerville	60	3	0	0	3