Baylor at Texas State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo   Baylor Bears at Texas State Bobcats  Texas State logo
Saturday, September 4th 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -13.5 (52.5)
Baylor 29 - Texas State: 20

 
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -13.5  (SP+ BAY -31.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 30 - TXST: 37 (67)
BAY Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
BAY Travel: 125 miles
Bobcats (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jake Spavital (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Texas State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Texas State vs Baylor+13.552.5L 20 - 29UY
Sat 9/11 Texas State at Florida International+2.055.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 9/18 Texas State vs Incarnate Word-10.570.0L 34 - 42ON
Sat 9/25 Texas State at Eastern Michigan+7.562.0L 21 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9 Texas State vs South Alabama+4.052.5W 33 - 31OY
Sat 10/16 Texas State vs Troy+7.549.0L 28 - 31OY
Sat 10/23 Texas State at Georgia State+10.058.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/30 Texas State at Louisiana+21.058.0L 0 - 45UN
Sat 11/6 Texas State vs UL Monroe-3.057.5W 27 - 19UY
Sat 11/13 Texas State vs Georgia Southern-2.552.0L 30 - 38ON
Sat 11/20 Texas State at Coastal Carolina+24.560.5L 21 - 35UY
Sat 11/27 Texas State at Arkansas State+2.062.0W 24 - 22UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY.0534%31.134%2.159134%2203.33.1340%32.641%39%4.1762.411.9
TXST.1440%36.541%2.8613140%2393.7.2849%2949%49%4.3849.31.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense931.133.234.2%3.33118311912202.842%58%34%34%20%.05
TXST Defense122928.349.2%4.381.3 - - - - - 54%46%49%49%12%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense932.639.240%4.171.9 - - - - - 55%45%41%39%17%.13
TXST Offense1236.53840.3%3.71.5213701312394.244%56%41%40%20%.14

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor929:0818.333%60%7.162.411.96.62429.8
Texas State1225:4420.633%38%5.249.31.51.34.51327.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense942%34%3391.22.88-.032.1579%13%0.95
TXST Defense1254%49% - - - - .183.1670%8%0.89
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense955%41% - - - - .122.7867%11%1.04
TXST Offense1244%41%31131.44.215.142.8673%13%1.07

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense958%34%22.836.8219.969.7148.111.537%25%.27%2.1
TXST Defense1246%49% - - - - - - 7.411.528%37%.485%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense945%39% - - - - - - 12.151.533%29%.316%2.1
TXST Offense1256%40%20.633.7238.77.111.62614.141.634%29%.197%2

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor:    Texas State: -5.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.6   Texas State: -16.0




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -5.5 NR
Texas State's Offense Rating: NR
Texas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #119
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.7  #111
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.9  #121

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 37
Baylor 30

Projected Total Points: 67
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/02Baylor31Texas State42Baylor -26.5Texas State58.5Over
202209/17Baylor42Texas State7Baylor -30Baylor53.0Under
202109/04Texas State20Baylor29Baylor -13.5Texas State52.5Under
200709/15Baylor34Texas State27
200409/11Baylor24Texas State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State121 Overs
Baylor412 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 31 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#) BAY at (#) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYTXST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #15 #119
Perf GradeGrade #13 #105
OffenseOff #9 #71
DefenseDef #27 #117
Spec TeamsST #76 #50
TalentTal #41 #97
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCat
BAY OffTXST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #117
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #121
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #22 #97
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #125
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #54 #127
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #111
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Texas State on Offense
CategoryCatTXST OffBAY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #71 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #111 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas State Run Game
CategoryCat
TXST OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #102 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #25 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
Texas State Pass Game
CategoryCatTXST OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #105 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #56 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Baylor 13.5 (52.5)
Baylor won at Texas State this year (29-20)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Baylor in 2023 (42-31)

  
BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TXST's OC Jacob Peeler (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Zac Spavital (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD