Baylor at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Cincinnati Bearcats(#21)Cincinnati logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -3.5 (68.5) (-175)  Open: -3.5
Cincinnati 41 - Baylor: 20  (Big 12)

 
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
BAY 2nd straight Road Game
CIN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -9.5  (SP+ CIN -6)

Projected Score: BAY: 28 - CIN: 37 (65)
CIN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 881 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearcats (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas+5.555.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.555.5W 38 - 30OY
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-10.055.5W 20 - 11UN
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-23.557.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-3.568.5W 41 - 20UY
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+11.557.5L 14 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-6.556.5L 24 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU+2.556.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+3.058.5L 23 - 45ON
Fri 1/2 Cincinnati vs Navy+4.054.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#50 (.2)45% (39)31.147% (38)3.09 (42)14244% (40)3103.69 (70)#81 (.18)44% (105)32.646% (108)43% (91)4.3 (125)61.420.9
CIN#11 (.32)48% (16)31.851% (8)3.6 (1)18047% (24)2414.66 (12)#105 (.21)45% (110)24.846% (114)43% (86)3.81 (84)64.210.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1231.133.245%3.692254511423104.240%59%47%44%15%.2
CIN Defense1224.819.644.7%3.810.8 - - - - - 52%47%46%43%13%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1232.639.244.3%4.30.9 - - - - - 56%42%46%43%12%.18
CIN Offense1231.834.448.1%4.66120422180241648%50%51%47%12%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1229:1524.838%53%661.420.941128.5
Cincinnati1224:0620.340%73%6.964.210.84.51.8129.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1240% (129)47% (38)34.1141.64.212 (88).17 (43)3.09 (42)77% (33)8% (38)0.9 (96)
CIN Defense1252% (101)46% (114) - - - - .17 (107)3.26 (124)77% (111)8% (113)0.93 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1256% (129)46% (108) - - - - .14 (92)3.15 (111)89% (134)7% (131)0.96 (69)
CIN Offense1248% (81)51% (8)30.3180.4620 (40).26 (9)3.6 (1)76% (43)6% (6)1.01 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1259% (8)44% (40)25.842.5309.67.31231 (3)12 (88).25 (69)1.5 (80)31% (58)33% (30).42 (28)6% (84)2.1 (34)
CIN Defense1247% (48)43% (86) - - - - - - 2 (132).26 (76)1.5 (36)29% (113)33% (108).34 (93)5% (122)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1242% (9)43% (91) - - - - - - 9 (55).25 (72)1.4 (14)28% (123)29% (64).24 (52)6% (87)1.7 (8)
CIN Offense1250% (64)47% (24)17.728.6241.38.413.728 (6)5 (3).46 (11)1.6 (41)29% (29)34% (27).45 (19)6% (54)2.2 (22)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.31  #44
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.84  #35
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.53  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.7  #69
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #30
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 9.31   Cincinnati: 14.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 0.7   Cincinnati: 6.3




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 14.4  #26
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 23.54  #11
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 6.04  #52
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.3  #49
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #39
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2  #64

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 37
Baylor 28


Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
Cincinnati 33
Baylor 30

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 34
Baylor 27

Total Points: 61
Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Cincinnati41Baylor20Cincinnati -3.5Cincinnati68.5Under
202310/21Cincinnati29Baylor32Cincinnati -2.5Baylor51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati111 Overs
Baylor111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#44) BAY at (#26) CIN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYCIN
Power RatePwr #44 #26
SP+SP+ #69 #49
Perf GradeGrade #77 #31
OffenseOff #57 #12
DefenseDef #101 #77
Spec TeamsST #11 #88
TalentTal #24 #53
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #79
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Cincinnati Notes
(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffCIN Def
Perf GradePerf #57 #77
SuccessSuc #39 #110
ExplosiveExp #53 #29
PPAPPA #50 #105
PowerPwr #35 #52
SP+SP+ #30 #64
Pts POPPO #70 #84
HavocHav #57 #121
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #92 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #114
Run ExplRExp #96 #54
PPAExp #43 #107
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLY #42 #124
Stuff RateStuff #28 #121
TackleTak -  #44
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #60 #64
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #86
Pass ExplPExl #80 #36
PPAExp #69 #76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #89 #133
F7 HavocF7 #38 #113
DB HavocDB #84 #122
Cincinnati on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #101
SuccessSuc #16 #105
ExplosiveExp #44 #16
PPAPPA #11 #81
PowerPwr #11 #56
SP+SP+ #39 #108
Pts POPPO #12 #125
HavocHav #14 #127
Cincinnati Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
CIN OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #20 #120
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #108
Run ExplRExp #52 #69
PPAExp #9 #92
Run BlockR Blk #9 -
OL YdsOLY #1 #111
Stuff RateStuff #36 #125
TackleTak -  #39
Cincinnati Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatCIN OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #8 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #91
Pass ExplPExl #41 #14
PPAExp #11 #72
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #111
F7 HavocF7 #6 #131
DB HavocDB #54 #87
Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 55°
Rematch from Week 9
Cincinnati -3.5 (68.5)
Cincinnati won vs Baylor this year (41-20)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Cincinnati in 2023 (32-29)

  
BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby20633562%27862658.3
Brady Lichtenberg4667%56109.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)12070945.954
Brendan Sorsby10058095.841
Evan Pryor7652236.946
Manny Covey1611617.324
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)486511113.688
Caleb Goodie (Tr)29484216.782
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)32478614.940
Joe Royer29416414.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Trevon Gola-Callard674003
Jonathan Thompson598120
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday954423
Jalen Hunt246400
Jack Dingle453230
Montay Weedon243200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Harrison (Tr)553007
Logan Wilson332006
Jiquan Sanks452004