Baylor at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 25th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -3.5 (68.5) (-175) Open: -3.5
Cincinnati 41 - Baylor: 20 (Big 12)

Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)

BAY 2nd straight Road Game
CIN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -6 (SP+ CIN -3)
Projected Score: BAY: 29 - CIN: 35 (65)
CIN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 881 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearcats (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (34 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Baylor vs Auburn	+1.5	57.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Baylor at SMU	+3.0	65.5	W 48 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Baylor vs Samford	-51.5	65.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/20	Baylor vs Arizona State	-3.0	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/27	Baylor at Oklahoma State	-21.0	58.5	W 45 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/4	Baylor vs Kansas State	-4.5	59.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Baylor at TCU	+3.5	66.5	L 36 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Baylor at Cincinnati	+3.5	68.5	L 20 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/1	Baylor vs UCF	-3.0	58.5	W 30 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Baylor vs Utah	+9.5	60.5	L 28 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/22	Baylor at Arizona	+6.5	61.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/29	Baylor vs Houston	-2.5	57.5	L 24 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Cincinnati vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Cincinnati vs Bowling Green	-21.5	46.5	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/13	Cincinnati vs Northwestern State	-48.5	55.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Cincinnati at Kansas	+5.5	55.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-1.5	55.5	W 38 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Cincinnati vs UCF	-10.0	55.5	W 20 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/18	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	-23.5	57.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-3.5	68.5	W 41 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Cincinnati at Utah	+11.5	57.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Cincinnati vs Arizona	-6.5	56.5	L 24 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/22	Cincinnati vs BYU	+2.5	56.5	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/29	Cincinnati at TCU	+3.0	58.5	L 23 - 45	O	N
Fri 1/2	Cincinnati vs Navy	+7.5	57.5	L 13 - 35	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	31.1	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	32.6	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)	30.3	44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)	25.6	46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CIN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	31.1	33.2	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25
CIN Defense	12	25.6	19.6	42.2%	3.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	39%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	32.6	39.2	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18
CIN Offense	12	30.3	34.4	44.7%	3.33	1.5	22	422	185	237	5.2	50%	50%	44%	45%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5
Cincinnati	12	31:42	22.1	42%	55%	5.3	44.4	1.5	1.2	5.4	1.6	0	26.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)
CIN Defense	12	51% (75)	46% (94)	-	-	-	-	.14 (77)	3.19 (98)	73% (63)	11% (51)	0.95 (49)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)
CIN Offense	12	50% (72)	44% (67)	35.3	185	5.2	19 (73)	.15 (59)	3.03 (69)	71% (84)	11% (93)	1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)
CIN Defense	12	49% (63)	39% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.23 (71)	1.7 (108)	31% (93)	31% (79)	.34 (86)	5% (87)	2 (66)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)
CIN Offense	12	50% (63)	45% (32)	21	32.9	236.5	7.2	11.3	18 (68)	7 (26)	.26 (63)	1.4 (121)	30% (41)	36% (20)	.5 (10)	5% (33)	2.1 (67)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.66 #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.66 Cincinnati: 12.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 Cincinnati: 4.5

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 12.92 #17
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.32 #19
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.98 #28
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #56
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #67

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Cincinnati 35
Baylor 29

Projected Total Points: 65

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.4
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.6

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Cincinnati	41	Baylor	20	Cincinnati -3.5	Cincinnati	68.5	Under
2023	10/21	Cincinnati	29	Baylor	32	Cincinnati -2.5	Baylor	51.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	1	1	1 Overs
Baylor	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#30) BAY at (#17) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	CIN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#17
SP+SP+	#71	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#78	#34
OffenseOff	#61	#20
DefenseDef	#100	#78
Spec TeamsST	#5	#66
TalentTal	#24	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#79

Baylor Notes(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report

Cincinnati Notes(11/16) Was Cincy overrated? Finish BYU/TCU will tell
(10/30) RB1 Evan Pryor out for the Utah game
(10/22) OL is criminally underrated, one of best in CFB
(10/12) Five straight wins after ugly W over UCF. Outgained
(10/4) Huge W vs ISU, Run Off mauled for 260+ yds, 8 ypc
(9/23) OL has been great early, int if that will hold up
(9/23) QB Sorsby has really upped his game, dynamic
(8/29) Sorsby passing awful vs Neb, tough runner.
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
Cincinnati Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	CIN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#78
SuccessSuc	#23	#76
ExplosiveExp	#49	#75
PPAPPA	#29	#75
PowerPwr	#20	#28
SP+SP+	#32	#67
Pts POPPO	#30	#40
HavocHav	#17	#67

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#92	#58
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#94
Run ExplRExp	#50	#49
PPAExp	#41	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#98
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#56
TackleTak	-	#35

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#108
PPAExp	#21	#71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#84	#130
F7 HavocF7	#9	#51
DB HavocDB	#55	#87

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#100
SuccessSuc	#43	#38
ExplosiveExp	#79	#102
PPAPPA	#59	#74
PowerPwr	#19	#43
SP+SP+	#50	#110
Pts POPPO	#118	#77
HavocHav	#69	#83

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#30	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#13
Run ExplRExp	#34	#92
PPAExp	#59	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#90
TackleTak	-	#38

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#12	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	#32	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#99
PPAExp	#63	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#66	#124
F7 HavocF7	#93	#84
DB HavocDB	#33	#80

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Cincinnati -3.5 (68.5)
Cincinnati won vs Baylor this year (41-20)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Baylor last year (41-20)
Baylor beat Cincinnati in 2023 (32-29)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	304	503	60%	3681	31	12	7.3
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	154	788	6	5.1	41
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
Joseph Dodds	26	104	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	69	872	9	12.6	48
Michael Trigg	50	694	6	13.9	42
Ashtyn Hawkins	53	621	0	11.7	41
Kole Wilson (Tr)	44	591	5	13.4	64

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Devyn Bobby	77	2	0	0	2
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Jackie Marshall	30	6	2	0	0
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Travion Barnes (Tr)	11	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	7
DJ Coleman	41	4	3	4
Caldra Williford (Tr)	16	1	0	4

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby	206	335	62%	2786	26	5	8.3
Brady Lichtenberg	14	21	67%	134	2	1	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)	120	709	4	5.9	54
Brendan Sorsby	100	580	9	5.8	41
Evan Pryor	76	522	3	6.9	46
Manny Covey	27	194	1	7.2	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cyrus Allen (Tr)	50	660	12	13.2	88
Caleb Goodie (Tr)	29	484	2	16.7	82
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)	32	478	6	14.9	40
Joe Royer	29	416	4	14.3	73

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	95	4	4	2	3
Jonathan Thompson	67	9	1	2	0
Trevon Gola-Callard	67	4	0	0	3
Christian Harrison (Tr)	55	3	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Golday	95	4	4	2	3
Jalen Hunt	26	6	4	0	0
Jack Dingle	51	3	2	3	0
Montay Weedon	27	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Christian Harrison (Tr)	55	3	7
Logan Wilson	33	2	6
Daniel James	15	0	4