Baylor at Cincinnati - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Nippert Stadium - Cincinnati, OH  (Big 12)

 
Bears (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 38 - 30 (48 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
BAY 2nd straight Road Game
CIN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -4   (SP+ BAY -1.5)

Projected Score: BAY: 33 - CIN: 37 (70)
CIN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 881 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearcats (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 40 - 13 (52 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-1.560.5
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+8.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+4
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+6
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-0.5
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Cincinnati vs Nebraska+6.552.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Cincinnati vs Bowling Green-21.546.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 9/13 Cincinnati vs Northwestern State-48.555.5W 70 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Cincinnati at Kansas-0.5
Sat 10/4 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-1.5
Sat 10/11 Cincinnati vs UCF-9.5
Sat 10/18 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State-16
Sat 10/25 Cincinnati vs Baylor-4
Sat 11/1 Cincinnati at Utah+10
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Cincinnati vs Arizona-7
Sat 11/22 Cincinnati vs BYU-3
Sat 11/29 Cincinnati at TCU+7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#50 (.26)44% (59)3841% (90)3.26 (39)14947% (46)3684.09 (64)#98 (.19)45% (105)3047% (108)41% (77)4.23 (96)54.71.31.7
CIN#16 (.44)56% (13)40.356% (16)3.77 (11)18457% (11)2555.56 (10)#63 (.12)45% (106)13.341% (79)48% (116)2.86 (46)45.710.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense3384844.4%4.091.328517149368437%62%41%47%11%.26
CIN Defense313.31044.9%2.860.7 - - - - - 44%56%41%48%15%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense3304544.9%4.231.7 - - - - - 64%34%47%41%15%.19
CIN Offense340.35256.2%5.561204381842556.652%47%56%57%13%.44

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor331:082837%53%5.354.71.31.74.31.7030
Cincinnati321:2120.333%100%545.710.76.73031.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense337% (128)41% (90)37149.345 (62).11 (80)3.26 (39)73% (65)7% (30)0.98 (62)
CIN Defense344% (34)41% (79) - - - - -.06 (31)2.63 (52)69% (66)12% (41)0.77 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense364% (132)47% (108) - - - - .16 (105)3.28 (121)100% (127)9% (88)0.9 (58)
CIN Offense352% (58)56% (16)28183.76.66 (49).32 (28)3.77 (11)75% (52)8% (50)0.94 (74)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense362% (8)47% (46)29.747.33687.812.410 (7)2 (60).35 (59)1.6 (57)30% (64)39% (28).52 (36)5% (60)1.9 (84)
CIN Defense356% (109)48% (116) - - - - - - 1 (87).26 (89)1.2 (10)31% (87)38% (122).33 (86)3% (123)1.5 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense334% (4)41% (77) - - - - - - 4 (12).32 (102)1.5 (50)26% (126)24% (40).19 (54)6% (56)1.5 (14)
CIN Offense347% (81)57% (11)1724254.710.61510 (7)1 (23).65 (10)1.5 (74)22% (10)43% (20).78 (11)6% (84)2.2 (46)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 14.43 #40
Baylor's Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 14.43   Cincinnati: 16.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 10.3   Cincinnati: 8.9




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 16.26 #33
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 24.04 #21
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 5.41 #59
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Cincinnati's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Cincinnati's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #43
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #50
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #34

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense on Road: 48
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense on Road: 45

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 37
Baylor 33


Total Points: 70

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Cincinnati's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/21Cincinnati29Baylor32BaylorCincinnati -2.5Baylor51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati001 Overs
Baylor110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#40) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 14.43 #40
Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70
Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.09 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Baylor has lost 4 straight
Baylor has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Baylor Notes
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).

Baylor Highlights
Baylor defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor has a bad defense (#105)
Baylor Does Not Stuff Runs (#122)
Baylor has a bad defensive line (#121)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCINBAY
OverallOver#6#66
OffenseOff#6#56
DefenseDef#12#79
Special TeamsST#40#101
PassingPass#4#77
RushingRush#8#92
Run BlockRBLK#12#23
Pass BlockPBLK#25#71
Route RunningWR Rt#21#45
TacklingTkl#3#77
Run DefenseR Def#4#105
Pass Rush DefPRush#88#93
Coverage DefCov#19#16

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Cincinnati in 2023 (32-29)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | CIN
Depth Chart: BAY | CIN
Rosters: BAY | CIN
(#33) Cincinnati Info
Power Rating: 16.26 #33
Offense Rating: 24.04 #21
Defense Rating: 5.41 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.9 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #50
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #34
Talent Rating: 798.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.56 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 57%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 2.86 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 41%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Cincinnati has lost 4 straight
Cincinnati has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Cincinnati Notes
(8/29) Run Off good vs Neb, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/30) Def good LY, lost all DBs. 4 DE/4 DB portals
(6/21) QB, TE good, RB/WR portals, OL ok, Off jump?
(5/31) TE Royer good, can FCS Caldwell be a #1 WR?
(5/31) Pass rush? DE has 1 good portal, lots of ?
(5/31) LB & DB should be strong, DB portals good
(5/31) RB bad LY, Walker (Wisc) a big add, Pryor exp'd
(5/31) WR meh LY, 3 portals should improve things
(5/31) OL 2/5 back. OT's upgrade w/ 2 portal adds
(4/4) DT Dontay Corleone a top 10 DT via PFF

Cincinnati Highlights
Cincinnati is Undefeated at Home

Cincinnati offense is efficent (#13)
Cincinnati has a top Offensive Line (#11)
Cincinnati offense is good in red zone (#10)
Cincinnati Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Cincinnati defense does not give up big plays (#14)

Cincinnati Deficiencies
Cincinnati offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Cincinnati has a bad defense (#106)


  
Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson8413562%10701027.9
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington6630444.631
Caden Knighten238913.917
Michael Turner63606.013
Sawyer Robertson131200.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashtyn Hawkins17257015.136
Josh Cameron15244316.348
Kole Wilson (Tr)13182014.057
Michael Trigg13151111.620

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas301000
Devyn Bobby160000
Jacob Redding120000
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)63200
Kendrick Simpkins62110
Micah Gifford31100
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Coleman101012
Taz Williams Jr.00001
Tyler Turner (Tr)60001

Cincinnati's OC Brad Glenn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby456470%6558110.2
Brady Lichtenberg4667%56109.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendan Sorsby2217548.029
Tawee Walker (Tr)2415116.322
Evan Pryor1710005.920
Manny Covey54408.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeff Caldwell (Tr)9172119.139
Caleb Goodie (Tr)8160120.055
Cyrus Allen (Tr)12145312.144
Joe Royer8138217.373

View Cincinnati's Full Roster
Cincinnati's DC Tyson Veidt
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday282200
Trevon Gola-Callard171001
Jonathan Thompson163110
Jiquan Sanks141000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jake Golday282200
Robert Jackson52200
Jack Dingle82220
Brian Simms III92100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Logan Wilson81002
Trevon Gola-Callard171001
Christian Harrison (Tr)131001