Iowa State at Baylor - 2021 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo (#12)Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 25th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa State -7 (46.0)
Baylor 31 - Iowa State: 29  (Big 12)

 
Cyclones (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (37 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (33 - 27 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ISU 2nd straight Road Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
ISU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -3  (SP+ BAY -1)
Projected Score: ISU: 24 - BAY: 30 (54)
ISU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ISU Travel: 748 miles
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Iowa State vs Northern Iowa-28.550.0W 16 - 10UN
Sat 9/11 Iowa State vs Iowa-4.045.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 9/18 Iowa State at UNLV-32.053.0W 48 - 3UY
Sat 9/25 Iowa State at Baylor-7.046.0L 29 - 31ON
Sat 10/2 Iowa State vs Kansas-34.557.5W 59 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Iowa State at Kansas State-6.551.0W 33 - 20OY
Sat 10/23 Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-7.547.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/30 Iowa State at West Virginia-7.549.0L 31 - 38ON
Sat 11/6 Iowa State vs Texas-6.059.5W 30 - 7UY
Sat 11/13 Iowa State at Texas Tech-13.055.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/20 Iowa State at Oklahoma+3.059.0L 21 - 28UN
Fri 11/26 Iowa State vs TCU-16.061.5W 48 - 14OY
Wed 12/29 Iowa State vs Clemson+1.544.0L 13 - 20UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU.2444%31.340%2.9716147%2644.1.1841%20.541%40%3.7438.61.11.4
BAY.2745%31.646%3.2621944%2034.1537%18.335%39%3.0448.41.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1331.333.343.8%4.11.1224251612645.144%56%40%47%15%.24
BAY Defense1418.320.337%3.041.8 - - - - - 47%52%35%39%20%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1320.526.840.7%3.741.4 - - - - - 51%49%41%40%19%.18
BAY Offense1431.637.945%41.1214222192035.459%41%46%44%15%.27

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1330:5421.536%65%4.838.61.11.46.52.5128
Baylor1431:2320.742%63%5.448.41.11.87.43.1331.3
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1344%40%31.6160.75.125.132.9763%10%1.11
BAY Defense1447%35% - - - - .12.7675%13%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1351%41% - - - - .13.0169%14%0.98
BAY Offense1459%46%40.9219.35.429.283.2674%11%1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1356%47%24.134.3263.87.711229.341.431%29%.295%2
BAY Defense1452%39% - - - - - - 19.221.635%26%.217%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1349%40% - - - - - - 11.261.630%31%.486%2.3
BAY Offense1441%44%16.926.1203.17.812247.261.629%32%.334%1.8

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: NR
Iowa State's Offense Rating: NR
Iowa State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Iowa State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Iowa State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.3  #19
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #34
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #19

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State:    Baylor: 10.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 14.3   Baylor: 15.6




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 10.3 NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.3
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.8

Iowa State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 30
Iowa State 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 31
Iowa State 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 29
Iowa State 26

Total Points: 55
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.9
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Iowa State43Baylor21Iowa State -13Iowa State45.0Over
202310/28Baylor18Iowa State30Iowa State -3Iowa State47.0Over
202209/24Iowa State24Baylor31Iowa State -2.5Baylor45.0Over
202109/25Baylor31Iowa State29Iowa State -7Baylor46.0Over
202011/07Iowa State38Baylor31Iowa State -14Baylor46.5Over
201909/28Baylor23Iowa State21Iowa State -2.5Baylor55.5Under
201811/10Iowa State28Baylor14Iowa State -17Baylor51.0Under
201711/18Baylor13Iowa State23Iowa State -7.5Iowa State50.0Under
201610/01Iowa State42Baylor45Baylor -17Iowa State62.0Over
201510/24Baylor45Iowa State27Baylor -37Iowa State74.5Under
201409/27Iowa State28Baylor49Baylor -22Iowa State0
201310/19Baylor71Iowa State7Baylor -33Baylor0
201210/27Iowa State35Baylor21
201110/08Baylor49Iowa State26
200910/17Iowa State24Baylor10
200810/11Baylor38Iowa State10
200510/08Iowa State13Baylor23
200410/23Baylor25Iowa State26
200109/29Iowa State41Baylor0
200009/29Baylor17Iowa State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor1066 Overs
Iowa State1064 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 86 - 62 - 44 - 2
Road Teams8 - 126 - 62 - 44 - 2

(#) ISU at (#) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #19 #15
Perf GradeGrade #35 #13
OffenseOff #53 #9
DefenseDef #24 #27
Spec TeamsST #57 #76
TalentTal #55 #41
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Iowa State on Offense
CategoryCat
ISU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #53 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #34 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Iowa State Run Game
CategoryCat
ISU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #60 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #69 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
Iowa State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ISU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #48 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #58 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCatBAY OffISU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #24
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #19
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffISU Def
Run GameRun #22 #29
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #57
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCatBAY OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #47
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #3 #46
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'21 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 88° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Iowa State 7.0 (46.0)
Baylor won vs Iowa State this year (31-29)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Baylor last year (43-21)
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2023 (30-18)
Baylor beat Iowa State in 2022 (31-24)

  
ISU's OC Tom Manning (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD