Baylor at TCU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX  (Big 12)

 
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
BAY coming off BYE
TCU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: TCU -4.5   (SP+ TCU -4)
Projected Score: BAY: 28 - TCU: 33 (60)
TCU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 81 miles
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#37)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+2.556.5
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+6.5
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-33
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State+3
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-8.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+4.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati-2.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah-1.5
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-9
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
TCU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 TCU at North Carolina-2.559.0
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 TCU vs Abilene Christian-35
Sat 9/20 TCU vs SMU-0.5
Fri 9/26 TCU at Arizona State+6
Sat 10/4 TCU vs Colorado-9.5
Sat 10/11 TCU at Kansas State+6
Sat 10/18 TCU vs Baylor-4.5
Sat 10/25 TCU at West Virginia-10
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 TCU vs Iowa State-3
Sat 11/15 TCU at BYU-2.5
Sat 11/22 TCU at Houston-8
Sat 11/29 TCU vs Cincinnati-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)34.446% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)26.738% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)33.545% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)24.646% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1334.43246.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25
TCU Defense1324.623.341.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1326.730.739.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
TCU Offense1333.536.747.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 11.31 #32
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Baylor's Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #47
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 11.31   TCU: 13.94

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 7.5   TCU: 11.1




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 13.94 #30
TCU's Offense Rating: 22.33 #21
TCU's Defense Rating: 10.55 #42
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
TCU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
TCU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #29
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 33
Baylor 28

Projected Total Points: 60
TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

TCU's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Baylor37TCU34BaylorBaylor -2.5Baylor64.0Over
202311/18TCU42Baylor17TCUTCU -13.0TCU62.0Under
202211/19Baylor28TCU29TCUTCU -2Baylor58.0Under
202111/06TCU30Baylor28TCUBaylor -7.5TCU57.0Over
202010/31Baylor23TCU33TCUTCU -3.0TCU0
201911/09TCU23Baylor29BaylorBaylor -3.0Baylor48.5Over
201811/17Baylor9TCU16TCUBaylor -1TCU50.5Under
201711/24TCU45Baylor22TCUTCU -25.5Baylor53.0Over
201611/05Baylor22TCU62TCUBaylor -9TCU65.0Over
201511/27TCU28Baylor21TCUBaylor -2TCU75.0Under
201410/11Baylor61TCU58BaylorBaylor -11TCU0
201311/30TCU38Baylor41BaylorBaylor -14TCU0
201210/13Baylor21TCU49TCU
201109/02Baylor50TCU48Baylor
201009/18TCU45Baylor10TCU
200709/01TCU27Baylor0TCU
200609/03Baylor7TCU17TCU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU1285 Overs
Baylor544 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 86 - 62 - 44 - 2
Road Teams8 - 96 - 62 - 44 - 2

(#32) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.31 #32
Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58
Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #47
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Baylor Notes
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).
(3/21) OL 4/5 back. Best of B12? Most exp'd for sure
Baylor     Ratings Matchup     TCU
Power #32
#30
Off #19
#21
Def #46
#42
Talent #40
#30
SP+ #35
#29
SP+ Off #20
#19
SP+ Def #58
#37

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat TCU last year (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)
TCU beat Baylor in 2022 (29-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | TCU
Depth Chart: BAY | TCU
Rosters: BAY | TCU
(#30) TCU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.94 #30
Offense Rating: 22.33 #21
Defense Rating: 10.55 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #37
Talent Rating: 854.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #31
Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


TCU Notes
(5/19) RBs Palmer & Payne top duo in spring ball
(5/19) LB core could be best in B12 led by Obiazor
(5/19) OC Briles has QB Hoover for a 3rd year
(5/2) S Bud Clark led all CFB S in coverage, big talent
(3/24) WR Dwyer (Idaho) a great find/weapon
(3/19) QB Hoover a top in CFB, can depth play?
(3/19) RB rebuild, added Barnes (UTSA), we'll see
(3/19) WR McAlister good, talent/#'s should find 2/3
(3/19) Def OK LY, lacked playmakers. Some exp.
(3/19) Dykes quietly got to 9 W's LY.


  
Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Walker White (Tr)2540%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Walker White (Tr)41804.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Kole Wilson (Tr)43630414.753
Louis Brown38620316.344
Michael Trigg30395313.242

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Travion Barnes (Tr)12911340
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Devin Turner (Tr)512003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Fobbs-White (Tr)218401
Keaton Thomas978420
Travion Barnes (Tr)12911340
Jackie Marshall415250
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phoenix Jackson (Tr)455254
Caden Jenkins250004
Devin Turner (Tr)512003

TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover31347167%394927118.4
Ken Seals101377%97107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne5423934.432
Kevorian Barnes (Tr)7822122.817
Trent Battle4418624.224
Jordyn Bailey374124.759
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer (Tr)7110261014.555
Eric McAlister39762519.584
Joseph Manjack22351316.057
D'Andre Rogers12142211.840

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Andy Avalos
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Namdi Obiazor817321
Jamel Johnson722003
Bud Clark680003
Kaleb Elarms-Orr545220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ansel Din-Mbuh (Tr)247620
Devean Deal4610631
Zachary Chapman243310
Namdi Obiazor817321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson473009
Jevon McIver Jr.120004
Bud Clark680003