Texas at Baylor - 2021 Matchup Preview
Texas logo   Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears  Baylor logo
Saturday, October 30th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -2 (61.5)
Baylor 31 - Texas: 24  (Big 12)

 
Longhorns (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TEX coming off BYE
BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: -6  (SP+ BAY -7)
Projected Score: TEX: 28 - BAY: 27 (55)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
TEX Travel: 95 miles
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Texas vs Louisiana-8.558.0W 38 - 18UY
Sat 9/11 Texas at Arkansas-6.057.5L 21 - 40ON
Sat 9/18 Texas vs Rice-26.052.0W 58 - 0OY
Sat 9/25 Texas vs Texas Tech-9.063.0W 70 - 35OY
Sat 10/2 Texas at TCU-3.565.5W 32 - 27UY
Sat 10/9 Texas vs Oklahoma+4.065.5L 48 - 55ON
Sat 10/16 Texas vs Oklahoma State-3.061.0L 24 - 32UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Texas at Baylor+2.061.5L 24 - 31UN
Sat 11/6 Texas at Iowa State+6.059.5L 7 - 30UN
Sat 11/13 Texas vs Kansas-31.061.5L 56 - 57ON
Sat 11/20 Texas at West Virginia+2.556.0L 23 - 31UN
Fri 11/26 Texas vs Kansas State-3.054.5W 22 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX.2543%30.546%3.0819541%2804.44.1443%20.340%46%3.42790.91.8
BAY.0534%31.134%2.159134%2203.33.1340%32.641%39%4.1762.411.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense1030.519.843.2%4.440.9224761952805.347%53%46%41%16%.25
BAY Defense932.627.940%4.171.9 - - - - - 55%45%41%39%17%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1020.325.843.2%3.421.8 - - - - - 46%53%40%46%19%.14
BAY Offense931.129.634.2%3.33118311912202.842%58%34%34%20%.05

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1027:3622.437%50%8.2790.91.87.41.5230.9
Baylor929:0818.333%60%7.162.411.96.62429.8
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1047%46%36.8195.45.320.153.0863%9%1.06
BAY Defense955%41% - - - - .122.7867%11%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1046%40% - - - - .042.4473%12%0.87
BAY Offense942%34%3391.22.88-.032.1579%13%0.95

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1053%41%20.834.5280.18.113.5325.351.731%34%.497%2.3
BAY Defense945%39% - - - - - - 12.151.533%29%.316%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1053%46% - - - - - - 10.261.430%31%.238%2
BAY Offense958%34%22.836.8219.969.7148.111.537%25%.27%2.1

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: NR
Texas's Offense Rating: NR
Texas's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Texas's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.5  #48
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #28
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4  #85

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas:    Baylor: 10.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 8.5   Baylor: 15.6




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 10.3 NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 28
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 55
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Baylor6Texas38Texas -17.5Texas49.5Under
202211/25Texas38Baylor27Texas -10Texas55.0Over
202110/30Baylor31Texas24Baylor -2Baylor61.5Under
202010/24Texas27Baylor16Texas -11Push61.5Under
201911/23Baylor24Texas10Baylor -3.5Baylor58.0Under
201810/13Texas23Baylor17Texas -14Baylor58.5Under
201710/28Baylor7Texas38Texas -10Texas52.5Under
201610/29Texas35Baylor34Baylor -3.5Texas75.5Under
201512/05Baylor17Texas23Baylor -20.5Texas63.5Under
201410/04Texas7Baylor28Baylor -13Baylor0
201312/07Baylor30Texas10Baylor -13Baylor0
201210/20Texas56Baylor50
201112/03Baylor48Texas24
201010/30Texas22Baylor30
200911/14Baylor14Texas47
200811/08Texas45Baylor21
200710/20Baylor10Texas31
200610/14Texas63Baylor31
200511/05Baylor0Texas62
200410/02Texas44Baylor14
200310/25Baylor0Texas56
200211/09Texas41Baylor0
200111/03Baylor10Texas49
200010/27Texas48Baylor14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor651 Overs
Texas1858 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 105 - 54 - 21 - 3
Road Teams10 - 145 - 53 - 12 - 4

(#) TEX at (#) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTEXBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #48 #15
Perf GradeGrade #79 #13
OffenseOff #46 #9
DefenseDef #110 #27
Spec TeamsST #45 #76
TalentTal #11 #41
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Texas on Offense
CategoryCat
TEX OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #46 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Texas Run Game
CategoryCat
TEX OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #6 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #50 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
Texas Pass Game
CategoryCat
TEX OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #75 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #75 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCatBAY OffTEX Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #110
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #85
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #22 #124
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #92
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCatBAY OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #54 #57
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #3 #121
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

TEX 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Baylor -2.0 (61.5)
Baylor won vs Texas this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Baylor in 2023 (38-6)

  
TEX's OC Kyle Flood (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD