Iowa State at Baylor - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears

Baylor logo
Saturday, November 7th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX  (Big 12)

 
Cyclones (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jimmy Rogers (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (22 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#49)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -0.5  (SP+ ISU -8.5)
Projected Score: ISU: 27 - BAY: 27 (54)
ISU Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
ISU Travel: 748 miles
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Iowa State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State-31
Sat 9/12 Iowa State at Iowa+12
Sat 9/19 Iowa State vs Bowling Green-22.5
Sat 9/26 Iowa State vs Utah+8
Sat 10/3 Iowa State vs West Virginia-9.5
Sat 10/10 Iowa State at BYU+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Iowa State at Arizona+4.5
Sat 10/31 Iowa State vs Oklahoma State-12.5
Sat 11/7 Iowa State at Baylor-0.5
Sat 11/14 Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7
Sat 11/21 Iowa State at UCF-0.5
Sat 11/28 Iowa State vs Kansas State-2

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Baylor's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Baylor vs Auburn+13.5
Sat 9/12 Baylor vs Prairie View A&M-27.5
Sat 9/19 Baylor vs Louisiana Tech-12.5
Sat 9/26 Baylor vs Colorado-8
Sat 10/3 Baylor at Arizona State+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Baylor vs TCU+2.5
Sat 10/24 Baylor at Kansas+2
Sat 10/31 Baylor at UCF+2.5
Sat 11/7 Baylor vs Iowa State+0.5
Sat 11/14 Baylor at BYU+15.5
Sat 11/21 Baylor vs Texas Tech+20.5
Sat 11/28 Baylor at Houston+6

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#60 (.19)45% (43)27.446% (45)3 (59)17444% (43)2213.54 (85)#32 (.09)39% (43)20.240% (42)40% (53)3.06 (20)401.21.5
BAY#49 (.2)45% (39)31.147% (38)3.09 (42)14244% (41)3103.69 (69)#81 (.18)44% (104)32.646% (107)43% (93)4.3 (124)61.420.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1227.422.244.7%3.541.2213961742214.454%45%46%44%15%.19
BAY Defense1232.627.944.3%4.30.9 - - - - - 56%42%46%43%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1220.221.639.4%3.061.5 - - - - - 47%50%40%40%17%.09
BAY Offense1231.129.645%3.692254511423104.240%59%47%44%15%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1231:3421.140%68%4.6401.21.551.1129.9
Baylor1229:1524.838%53%661.420.941128.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1254% (35)46% (45)39.8174.24.423 (30).15 (48)3 (59)69% (90)8% (36)0.93 (82)
BAY Defense1256% (129)46% (107) - - - - .14 (93)3.15 (111)89% (134)7% (131)0.96 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1247% (42)40% (42) - - - - .01 (17)2.79 (49)70% (56)10% (65)0.83 (11)
BAY Offense1240% (129)47% (38)34.1141.64.212 (88).17 (44)3.09 (42)77% (32)8% (36)0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1245% (101)44% (43)17.528.8221.47.712.716 (86)9 (20).29 (52)1.6 (55)30% (48)31% (68).21 (100)6% (81)2.1 (42)
BAY Defense1242% (9)43% (93) - - - - - - 9 (55).25 (71)1.4 (13)28% (122)29% (65).24 (51)6% (86)1.7 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1250% (92)40% (53) - - - - - - 11 (38).24 (67)1.6 (74)33% (45)29% (62).23 (47)7% (28)1.7 (3)
BAY Offense1259% (8)44% (41)25.842.5309.67.31231 (3)12 (88).25 (67)1.5 (80)31% (58)33% (28).42 (27)6% (86)2.1 (35)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 4.78  #57
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 11.71  #79
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 11.93  #42
2026 Talent Rating: 752.00  #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Iowa State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Iowa State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9  #33
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #63
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 4.78   Baylor: 6.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 9.9   Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 6.74  #50
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.89  #43
Baylor's Defense Rating: 13.81  #55
2026 Talent Rating: 862.00  #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

Iowa State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 27
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 54
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Iowa State43Baylor21Iowa State -13Iowa State45.0Over
202310/28Baylor18Iowa State30Iowa State -3Iowa State47.0Over
202209/24Iowa State24Baylor31Iowa State -2.5Baylor45.0Over
202109/25Baylor31Iowa State29Iowa State -7Baylor46.0Over
202011/07Iowa State38Baylor31Iowa State -14Baylor46.5Over
201909/28Baylor23Iowa State21Iowa State -2.5Baylor55.5Under
201811/10Iowa State28Baylor14Iowa State -17Baylor51.0Under
201711/18Baylor13Iowa State23Iowa State -7.5Iowa State50.0Under
201610/01Iowa State42Baylor45Baylor -17Iowa State62.0Over
201510/24Baylor45Iowa State27Baylor -37Iowa State74.5Under
201409/27Iowa State28Baylor49Baylor -22Iowa State0
201310/19Baylor71Iowa State7Baylor -33Baylor0
201210/27Iowa State35Baylor21
201110/08Baylor49Iowa State26
200910/17Iowa State24Baylor10
200810/11Baylor38Iowa State10
200510/08Iowa State13Baylor23
200410/23Baylor25Iowa State26
200109/29Iowa State41Baylor0
200009/29Baylor17Iowa State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor1066 Overs
Iowa State1064 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 86 - 62 - 44 - 2
Road Teams8 - 126 - 62 - 44 - 2

(#57) ISU at (#50) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #57 #50
SP+SP+ #33 #71
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #68 #45
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #39
Iowa State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: OK for a team w new staff, 70 new players
(2/10) 13 portal starters tops in CFB, 13 exp'd depth too
(2/9) OC Roehl recently NFL, was NDSU's OC for 4 yrs
(2/9) HC Rogers at Wazzu for 1 year, SDSU previously
(2/9) QB Raynor (Ark St) decent, mobile, must limit TOs
(2/9) RBs are pretty green and young. Unclear
(2/9) WR built by 5 portals, most G5. Hayes (Tul) good
(2/9) OL 10 portals. Most exp'd are G5s. TBD
(2/9) Def 24 portals. DBs look good. Need more info
Iowa State Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Uneasy. Arada hot seat, QB/DC must hit
(2/17) RB Knighten & Turner back. Morris (Fr) big croot
(2/7) QB Lagway has talent, but inconsistent/inj history
(2/7) OC Spavital has big job to get Lagway's best
(2/7) New DC Klanderman (K St) great add to fix Def
(2/7) WR 4 portals must hit, no returning exp
(2/7) OL 6 have starting exp, 4 portals. Prod is ?
(2/7) DL added 5 portal starters. DT much improved
(2/7) CB could be good, S decent as well. 7 portals
Baylor Injury Report
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #43 #104
ExplosiveExp #92 #15
PPAPPA #60 #81
PowerPwr #79 #55
SP+SP+ #63 #110
Pts POPPO #85 #124
HavocHav #54 #126
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffBAY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #45 #107
Run ExplRExp #82 #68
PPAExp #48 #93
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #59 #111
Stuff RateStuff #57 #123
TackleTak - NR
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #93
Pass ExplPExl #55 #13
PPAExp #52 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #36 #131
DB HavocDB #81 #86
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffISU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #39 #43
ExplosiveExp #53 #51
PPAPPA #49 #32
PowerPwr #43 #42
SP+SP+ #32 #25
Pts POPPO #69 #20
HavocHav #56 #46
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffISU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #42
Run ExplRExp #99 #11
PPAExp #44 #17
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #42 #49
Stuff RateStuff #27 #36
TackleTak - NR
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffISU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #41 #53
Pass ExplPExl #80 #74
PPAExp #67 #67
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #36 #65
DB HavocDB #86 #28
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2024 (43-21)
Iowa State beat Baylor in 2023 (30-18)

  
ISU's OC Tyler Roehl (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor (Tr)33250066%336419116.7
Zane Flores (Tr)15526259%1454375.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Raynor (Tr)15442872.842
Cameron Pettaway (Tr)7236505.134
Zane Flores (Tr)5211722.327
Salahadin Allah (Tr)197103.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cody Jackson (Tr)53799615.160
Omari Hayes (Tr)39515113.242
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228
Carter Pabst (Tr)9168118.743

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jesse Bobbit (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Jones (Tr)515310
Sullivan Schlimgen (Tr)492010
Braden Awls (Tr)487104
Key'on Washington372103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Terrell (Tr)2812761
Malcolm Jones (Tr)515310
Malaki Ta'ase (Tr)174332
Bryson Lamb (Tr)254232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braden Awls (Tr)487104
Key'on Washington372103
Seth Johnson (Tr)70012

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)21333763%226416146.7
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
D.J. Lagway (Tr)7113611.938
Drelon Miller4613412.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)5348149.133
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Drelon Miller2115917.632
Caden Knighten11134112.239

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)577310
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)393002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)3712540
Ryan Davis (Tr)146414
Kedrick Walker (Tr)577310
Jamaal Whyce295310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
Stilton McKelvey (Tr)182005
Ryan Davis (Tr)146414