Arizona State at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo Arizona State Sun Devils at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -1.5 (60.5) (-125)  Open: -2.5
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX  (Big 12)

 
Sun Devils (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arizona State -0.5   (SP+ BAY -1)

Projected Score: ASU: 29 - BAY: 29 (58)
BAY Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ASU Travel: 872 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bears (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 38 - 30 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+1.560.5
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+8
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+6
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-12.5
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.5
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-9
Sat 11/29 Arizona State vs Arizona-8.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-1.560.5
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+8.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+4
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+6
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-0.5
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#43 (.3)46% (54)30.752% (29)3.62 (19)23338% (99)1764.17 (61)#52 (.08)43% (90)19.344% (96)42% (81)2.86 (46)60.711
BAY#50 (.26)44% (59)3841% (90)3.26 (39)14947% (46)3684.09 (64)#98 (.19)45% (105)3047% (108)41% (77)4.23 (96)54.71.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense330.72045.7%4.171224092331766.154%46%52%38%15%.3
BAY Defense33022.544.9%4.231.7 - - - - - 64%34%47%41%15%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense319.32442.7%2.861 - - - - - 43%57%44%42%21%.08
BAY Offense3383344.4%4.091.328517149368437%62%41%47%11%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State332:2221.724%67%8.360.71183.7028.6
Baylor331:082837%53%5.354.71.31.74.31.7030
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense354% (49)52% (29)382336.16 (49).37 (17)3.62 (19)71% (67)8% (66)1.21 (27)
BAY Defense364% (132)47% (108) - - - - .16 (105)3.28 (121)100% (127)9% (88)0.9 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense343% (22)44% (96) - - - - .02 (55)2.32 (29)69% (63)12% (38)0.88 (55)
BAY Offense337% (128)41% (90)37149.345 (62).11 (80)3.26 (39)73% (65)7% (30)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense346% (87)38% (99)16.729175.76.110.55 (54)3 (92).23 (80)1.6 (62)33% (98)30% (77).33 (73)6% (100)2 (71)
BAY Defense334% (4)41% (77) - - - - - - 4 (12).32 (102)1.5 (50)26% (126)24% (40).19 (54)6% (56)1.5 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense357% (116)42% (81) - - - - - - 1 (87).15 (52)1.4 (36)32% (75)28% (68).3 (76)9% (20)2.1 (91)
BAY Offense362% (8)47% (46)29.747.33687.812.410 (7)2 (60).35 (59)1.6 (57)30% (64)39% (28).52 (36)5% (60)1.9 (84)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 21.82 #27
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 22.18 #27
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 0.36 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0 #42
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #37

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 21.82   Baylor: 14.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 9.0   Baylor: 10.3




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 14.865 #40
Baylor's Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 29
Baylor 29


Total Points: 58

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor000 Overs
Arizona State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#27) Arizona State Info
Power Rating: 21.82 #27
Offense Rating: 22.18 #27
Defense Rating: 0.36 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3 #41
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #37
Talent Rating: 892.00 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 2.86 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Arizona State has won 1 straight
Arizona State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Arizona State Notes
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
(5/2) TE Metayer a good reliable target, underrated
(3/20) RBs Udoh (Army) or K. Brown fill in for Skat?
(3/18) QB Leavitt a top QB in CFB, mobile. Depth?
(3/18) WRs Tyson a weapon, who's #2/depth?
(3/18) OL rebuilding with only 2/5 back
(3/18) Def returns a ton, improved a ton LY
(1/1) HC Dillingham new 5 yr deal, top tier B12 #'s

Arizona State Highlights
Arizona State has Really Good Running Game (#15)
Arizona State has a top Offensive Line (#19)
Arizona State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Arizona State Defensive Line is very good (#29)
Arizona State Secondary is very good (#20)

Arizona State Deficiencies
Arizona State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Arizona State offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBAYASU
OverallOver#66#52
OffenseOff#56#54
DefenseDef#79#66
Special TeamsST#101#13
PassingPass#77#80
RushingRush#92#14
Run BlockRBLK#23#51
Pass BlockPBLK#71#17
Route RunningWR Rt#45#81
TacklingTkl#77#36
Run DefenseR Def#105#57
Pass Rush DefPRush#93#56
Coverage DefCov#16#68

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ASU | BAY
Depth Chart: ASU | BAY
Rosters: ASU | BAY
(#40) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 14.865 #40
Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70
Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.09 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Baylor has won 2 straight
Baylor has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Baylor Notes
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).

Baylor Highlights
Baylor defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor has a bad defense (#105)
Baylor Does Not Stuff Runs (#122)
Baylor has a bad defensive line (#121)


  
Arizona State's OC Marcus Arroyo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt508658%527536.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown3529228.375
Sam Leavitt2715735.852
Kanye Udoh (Tr)3213814.321
Kyson Brown98409.334
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson24314413.136
Chamon Metayer780111.427
Kyson Brown672012.022
Raleek Brown73404.911

View Arizona State's Full Roster
Arizona State's DC Brian Ward
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Crook245200
Keyshaun Elliott203220
Myles Rowser191001
Martell Hughes140000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clayton Smith125310
Jordan Crook245200
Keyshaun Elliott203220
Albert Smith III21101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney111103
Montana Warren121013
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)60002

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson8413562%10701027.9
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington6630444.631
Caden Knighten238913.917
Michael Turner63606.013
Sawyer Robertson131200.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashtyn Hawkins17257015.136
Josh Cameron15244316.348
Kole Wilson (Tr)13182014.057
Michael Trigg13151111.620

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas301000
Devyn Bobby160000
Jacob Redding120000
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)63200
Kendrick Simpkins62110
Micah Gifford31100
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Coleman101012
Taz Williams Jr.00001
Tyler Turner (Tr)60001