Arizona State at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo Arizona State Sun Devils at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX  (Big 12)

 
Sun Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (30 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 2.9 (#15)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arizona State -3   (SP+ ASU -4.5)
Projected Score: ASU: 30 - BAY: 27 (59)
ASU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ASU Travel: 872 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-38
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-11
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-22
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor-3
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-6
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah-1.5
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech-5
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-16.5
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-18
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-8
Sat 11/29 Arizona State vs Arizona-19.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+2.556.5
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+6.5
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-33
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State+3
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-8.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+4.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati-2.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah-1.5
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-9
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)32.952% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)22.641% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)34.446% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)26.738% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense1432.930.349.8%4.140.6203951872084.959%41%52%47%12%.31
BAY Defense1326.719.839.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense1422.620.742.4%3.641.4 - - - - - 45%54%41%44%16%.12
BAY Offense1334.437.346.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State1429:5420.447%53%650.10.61.441.3328.6
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense1459% (14)52% (6)38.11874.928 (25).27 (12)3.35 (19)73% (76)7% (18)0.96 (71)
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense1445% (14)41% (49) - - - - .04 (27)2.97 (61)63% (19)8% (116)1 (76)
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense1441% (120)47% (21)14.923.9208.48.71425 (31)5 (6).39 (14)1.6 (43)27% (11)38% (5).45 (21)4% (16)1.9 (115)
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense1454% (119)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (18).21 (57)1.4 (18)32% (65)30% (68).14 (5)8% (21)1.9 (27)
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 17.22 #16
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 24.56 #13
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.34 #26
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.1 - 2.9
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.2 #22
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #26
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #27

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 17.22   Baylor: 11.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 12.2   Baylor: 7.5




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 11.905 #32
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Baylor's Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #47
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona State 30
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 59
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor000 Overs
Arizona State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#16) Arizona State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 17.22 #16
Offense Rating: 24.56 #13
Defense Rating: 7.34 #26
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.2 #22
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #27
Talent Rating: 828.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Expected Record: 9.1 - 2.9

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.14 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Arizona State Notes
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
(5/2) TE Metayer a good reliable target, underrated
(3/20) RBs Udoh (Army) or K. Brown fill in for Skat?
(3/18) QB Leavitt a top QB in CFB, mobile. Depth?
(3/18) WRs Tyson a weapon, who's #2/depth?
(3/18) OL rebuilding with only 2/5 back
(3/18) Def returns a ton, improved a ton LY
(1/1) HC Dillingham new 5 yr deal, top tier B12 #'s
Arizona State     Ratings Matchup     Baylor
Power #16
#32
Off #13
#19
Def #26
#46
Talent #35
#40
SP+ #22
#35
SP+ Off #26
#20
SP+ Def #27
#58

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ASU | BAY
Depth Chart: ASU | BAY
Rosters: ASU | BAY
(#32) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.905 #32
Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58
Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #47
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Baylor Notes
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).
(3/21) OL 4/5 back. Best of B12? Most exp'd for sure


  
Arizona State's OC Marcus Arroyo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt21635062%28852468.2
Kanyon Floyd22100%470023.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kanye Udoh (Tr)1791117106.272
Sam Leavitt11044354.040
Kyson Brown7335124.838
Raleek Brown94204.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson7511011014.759
Jalen Moss (Tr)49582411.949
Chamon Metayer3230659.629
Kyson Brown13189114.568

View Arizona State's Full Roster
Arizona State's DC Brian Ward
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Rowser984124
Xavion Alford850015
Keyshaun Elliott644221
Jordan Crook574002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah O'Neal285455
Jacob Kongaika105310
Prince Dorbah124331
Clayton Smith3363124
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney520019
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Xavion Alford850015

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Walker White (Tr)2540%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Walker White (Tr)41804.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Kole Wilson (Tr)43630414.753
Louis Brown38620316.344
Michael Trigg30395313.242

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Travion Barnes (Tr)12911340
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Devin Turner (Tr)512003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Fobbs-White (Tr)218401
Keaton Thomas978420
Travion Barnes (Tr)12911340
Jackie Marshall415250
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phoenix Jackson (Tr)455254
Caden Jenkins250004
Devin Turner (Tr)512003