Arizona State at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo Arizona State Sun Devils at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -3 (60.5) (-142)  Open: -2.5
Arizona State 27 - Baylor: 24  (Big 12)

 
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 91° (32% Hum)
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -1.5  (SP+ ASU -2.5)

Projected Score: ASU: 28 - BAY: 30 (58)
BAY Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ASU Travel: 872 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)25.852% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)24.541% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)31.146% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)32.638% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense1425.824.649.8%4.140.6203951872084.959%41%52%47%12%.31
BAY Defense1332.627.939.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense1424.525.242.4%3.641.4 - - - - - 45%54%41%44%16%.12
BAY Offense1331.129.646.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State1429:5420.447%53%650.10.61.441.3328.6
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense1459% (14)52% (6)38.11874.928 (25).27 (12)3.35 (19)73% (76)7% (18)0.96 (71)
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense1445% (14)41% (49) - - - - .04 (27)2.97 (61)63% (19)8% (116)1 (76)
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense1441% (120)47% (21)14.923.9208.48.71425 (31)5 (6).39 (14)1.6 (43)27% (11)38% (5).45 (21)4% (16)1.9 (115)
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense1454% (119)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (18).21 (57)1.4 (18)32% (65)30% (68).14 (5)8% (21)1.9 (27)
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 11.84  #34
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 13.54  #66
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 1.70  #15
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9  #60
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7  #44

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 11.84   Baylor: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 3.9   Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.53  #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 30
Arizona State 28


Projected Total Points: 58
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Baylor24Arizona State27Baylor -3Arizona State60.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor000 Overs
Arizona State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#34) ASU at (#30) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatASUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #34 #30
SP+SP+ #60 #71
Perf GradeGrade #88 #78
OffenseOff #93 #61
DefenseDef #66 #100
Spec TeamsST #109 #5
TalentTal #27 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #49
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #100
SuccessSuc #8 #38
ExplosiveExp #100 #102
PPAPPA #13 #74
PowerPwr #66 #42
SP+SP+ #59 #110
Pts POPPO #48 #77
HavocHav #11 #83
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #38 #115
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #13
Run ExplRExp #71 #92
PPAExp #12 #64
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #74
Stuff RateStuff #30 #90
TackleTak -  #38
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #82 #45
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #78
Pass ExplPExl #43 #99
PPAExp #14 #80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #33 #124
F7 HavocF7 #18 #84
DB HavocDB #16 #80
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffASU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #66
SuccessSuc #23 #79
ExplosiveExp #49 #55
PPAPPA #29 #36
PowerPwr #20 #15
SP+SP+ #32 #44
Pts POPPO #30 #51
HavocHav #17 #75
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffASU Def
Run GameRun #92 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #49
Run ExplRExp #50 #76
PPAExp #41 #27
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #61
Stuff RateStuff #13 #47
TackleTak -  #79
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #71 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #106
Pass ExplPExl #49 #18
PPAExp #21 #57
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #133
F7 HavocF7 #9 #116
DB HavocDB #55 #21
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 91° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Baylor -3.0 (60.5)
Arizona State won at Baylor this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Baylor last year (27-24)

  
ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims10518856%12611066.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims10052255.288
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain31441114.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio22341215.568

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Crook1018222
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Myles Rowser844013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly427752
Elijah O'Neal379561
Prince Dorbah188471
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren402028

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004