Arizona State at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo Arizona State Sun Devils at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -3 (60.5) (-142)  Open: -2.5
Arizona State 27 - Baylor: 24  (Big 12)

 
Sun Devils (6 - 3) (5 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 25 - 24 (20 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#37)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 91° (32% Hum)
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
ASU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -5.5  (SP+ BAY -0)

Projected Score: ASU: 26 - BAY: 32 (58)
BAY Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ASU Travel: 872 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bears (5 - 4) (2 - 7 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 34 - 29 (31 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-13.5
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-9.5
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona-2.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+8
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-0.5
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#67 (.18)41% (86)24.746% (46)3.18 (22)18738% (111)2213.18 (117)#47 (.11)42% (75)23.743% (83)40% (56)3.75 (74)66.30.91.2
BAY#36 (.24)45% (40)33.845% (57)3.15 (29)14145% (40)3134.23 (40)#48 (.12)43% (87)29.344% (94)42% (78)4.19 (105)60.31.91
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense924.720.341.4%3.180.9224081872214.950%49%46%38%17%.18
BAY Defense929.321.843%4.191 - - - - - 55%44%44%42%13%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense923.727.341.5%3.751.2 - - - - - 46%53%43%40%19%.11
BAY Offense933.83144.9%4.231.9254541413134.240%59%45%45%13%.24

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State933:0622.133%62%8.366.30.91.26.42.7028.4
Baylor929:0524.939%56%5.860.31.913.70.9128.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense950% (66)46% (46)38.4187.34.912 (78).22 (21)3.18 (22)69% (84)10% (93)1.04 (38)
BAY Defense955% (118)44% (94) - - - - .05 (48)2.85 (86)87% (132)7% (131)0.85 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense946% (31)43% (83) - - - - .09 (74)2.55 (48)73% (80)11% (38)1 (86)
BAY Offense940% (127)45% (57)33.9141.44.210 (88).15 (51)3.15 (29)76% (40)8% (32)0.91 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense949% (72)38% (111)20.234.8220.86.410.912 (86)4 (20).18 (98)1.5 (91)32% (72)29% (84).28 (84)7% (116)1.8 (108)
BAY Defense944% (17)42% (78) - - - - - - 7 (55).21 (62)1.3 (8)29% (115)26% (26).16 (21)6% (68)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense953% (107)40% (56) - - - - - - 6 (55).15 (35)1.4 (26)33% (40)29% (60).21 (37)8% (12)2 (82)
BAY Offense959% (8)45% (40)26.141.4312.77.51226 (3)7 (88).3 (53)1.5 (63)30% (49)36% (25).5 (20)6% (57)2.1 (41)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 10.05  #45
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 8.95  #71
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -1.10  #28
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4  #54
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #64
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 10.05   Baylor: 13.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 5.4   Baylor: 5.5




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 13.225  #32
Baylor's Offense Rating: 18.94  #25
Baylor's Defense Rating: 2.99  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.5  #53
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #24
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #93

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 24.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 23.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.3

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 32
Arizona State 26


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 30
Arizona State 25

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 29
Arizona State 24

Total Points: 53
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 29.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.8

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Baylor24Arizona State27Baylor -3Arizona State60.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor000 Overs
Arizona State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#45) ASU at (#32) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatASUBAY
Power RatePwr #45 #32
SP+SP+ #54 #53
Perf GradeGrade #91 #58
OffenseOff #88 #50
DefenseDef #79 #79
Spec TeamsST #124 #24
TalentTal #27 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #49
Arizona State Notes
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
(5/2) TE Metayer a good reliable target, underrated
Arizona State Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
Baylor Injury Report
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #79
SuccessSuc #86 #87
ExplosiveExp #75 #5
PPAPPA #67 #48
PowerPwr #71 #41
SP+SP+ #64 #93
Pts POPPO #117 #105
HavocHav #101 #125
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #16 #110
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #94
Run ExplRExp #38 #24
PPAExp #21 #48
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #86
Stuff RateStuff #50 #120
TackleTak -  #36
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #93 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #78
Pass ExplPExl #91 #8
PPAExp #98 #62
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #38 #124
F7 HavocF7 #93 #131
DB HavocDB #116 #68
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatBAY OffASU Def
Perf GradePerf #50 #79
SuccessSuc #40 #75
ExplosiveExp #41 #60
PPAPPA #36 #47
PowerPwr #25 #28
SP+SP+ #24 #38
Pts POPPO #40 #74
HavocHav #38 #15
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
BAY OffASU Def
Run GameRun #104 #73
Run SuccessRSuc #57 #83
Run ExplRExp #95 #86
PPAExp #51 #74
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #29 #48
Stuff RateStuff #25 #45
TackleTak -  #70
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatBAY OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #57 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #56
Pass ExplPExl #63 #26
PPAExp #53 #35
Pass Block/RushP Blk #68 #105
F7 HavocF7 #32 #38
DB HavocDB #57 #12
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 91° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Baylor -3.0 (60.5)
Arizona State won at Baylor this year (27-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims377351%359214.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown13777035.675
Jeff Sims5831625.488
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)4417013.921
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson57628811.057
Chamon Metayer31349311.327
Malik McClain15259017.336
Raleek Brown2916705.816

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott7710431
Jordan Crook668211
Myles Rowser613002
Adrian Wilson (Tr)411015
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott7710431
Clayton Smith146420
Prince Dorbah158441
Elijah O'Neal235341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney321109
Adrian Wilson (Tr)411015
Montana Warren251015

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson23036663%27802677.6
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington12962464.841
Caden Knighten7132514.649
Michael Turner5227915.440
Joseph Dodds113503.27
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Trigg40607615.242
Josh Cameron47581512.448
Ashtyn Hawkins42459010.941
Kole Wilson (Tr)32433413.557

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas753003
Devyn Bobby561002
Jacob Redding410002
DJ Coleman363033
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Marshall256200
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)133220
Micah Gifford91100
Cooper Lanz233121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.231005
Caldra Williford (Tr)151004
Keaton Thomas753003