Texas at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Texas -17.5 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas 38 - Baylor: 6 (Big 12)

Longhorns (12 - 2) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (16 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY 4th straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -26 (SP+ TEX -33.5)
Projected Score: TEX: 39 - BAY: 13 (52)
TEX Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
TEX Travel: 95 miles

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TEX Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas vs Rice	-35.5	59.0	W 37 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Texas at Alabama	+7.0	53.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas vs Wyoming	-31.0	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Texas at Baylor	-17.5	49.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Texas vs Kansas	-15.5	61.0	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas vs Oklahoma	-4.0	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Texas at Houston	-24.0	60.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/28	Texas vs BYU	-20.5	48.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Texas vs Kansas State	-4.0	49.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/11	Texas at TCU	-13.0	56.0	W 29 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas at Iowa State	-7.5	43.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Texas vs Texas Tech	-16.5	53.5	W 57 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Texas vs Oklahoma State	-14.0	55.0	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	61.5	L 31 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX	.28	48%	30.5	51%	3.29	188	46%	241	4.52	.13	39%	20.3	37%	40%	3.06	47.3	1.1	1.3
BAY	.22	45%	31.1	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	32.6	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Offense	13	30.5	19.8	48.3%	4.52	1.1	23	429	188	241	5.2	48%	52%	51%	46%	12%	.28
BAY Defense	13	32.6	27.9	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Defense	13	20.3	25.8	38.5%	3.06	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	37%	40%	17%	.13
BAY Offense	13	31.1	29.6	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas	13	27:18	22.8	39%	55%	6.1	47.3	1.1	1.3	6.7	2.1	3	30.4
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Offense	13	48%	51%	36.2	188	5.2	29	.22	3.29	75%	8%	0.9
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Defense	13	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.91	81%	11%	0.97
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Offense	13	52%	46%	19.1	31.2	241.4	7.8	12.7	22	7	.34	1.5	28%	32%	.4	4%	2
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.21	1.6	35%	31%	.26	6%	2
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 15.87 #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.42 #40
Texas's Defense Rating: 2.04 #15
2023 Talent Rating: 913.24 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #6
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #6
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 15.87 Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 24.6 Baylor: -8.8

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 39
Baylor 13

Projected Total Points: 52

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Baylor	6	Texas	38	Texas -17.5	Texas	49.5	Under
2022	11/25	Texas	38	Baylor	27	Texas -10	Texas	55.0	Over
2021	10/30	Baylor	31	Texas	24	Baylor -2	Baylor	61.5	Under
2020	10/24	Texas	27	Baylor	16	Texas -11	Push	61.5	Under
2019	11/23	Baylor	24	Texas	10	Baylor -3.5	Baylor	58.0	Under
2018	10/13	Texas	23	Baylor	17	Texas -14	Baylor	58.5	Under
2017	10/28	Baylor	7	Texas	38	Texas -10	Texas	52.5	Under
2016	10/29	Texas	35	Baylor	34	Baylor -3.5	Texas	75.5	Under
2015	12/05	Baylor	17	Texas	23	Baylor -20.5	Texas	63.5	Under
2014	10/04	Texas	7	Baylor	28	Baylor -13	Baylor	0
2013	12/07	Baylor	30	Texas	10	Baylor -13	Baylor	0
2012	10/20	Texas	56	Baylor	50
2011	12/03	Baylor	48	Texas	24
2010	10/30	Texas	22	Baylor	30
2009	11/14	Baylor	14	Texas	47
2008	11/08	Texas	45	Baylor	21
2007	10/20	Baylor	10	Texas	31
2006	10/14	Texas	63	Baylor	31
2005	11/05	Baylor	0	Texas	62
2004	10/02	Texas	44	Baylor	14
2003	10/25	Baylor	0	Texas	56
2002	11/09	Texas	41	Baylor	0
2001	11/03	Baylor	10	Texas	49
2000	10/27	Texas	48	Baylor	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	6	5	1 Overs
Texas	18	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	5 - 5	4 - 2	1 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 14	5 - 5	3 - 1	2 - 4

(#11) TEX at (#108) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TEX	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#11	#108
SP+SP+	#6	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#10	#100
OffenseOff	#17	#82
DefenseDef	#17	#123
Spec TeamsST	#4	#18
TalentTal	#6	#46
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#38

Texas Injury Report

Baylor Injury Report

Texas on Offense


CategoryCat	TEX Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#123
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#40	#127
SP+SP+	#6	#105
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas Run Game


CategoryCat	TEX Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#25	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Texas Pass Game


CategoryCat	TEX Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#3	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TEX Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#99	#15
SP+SP+	#78	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#84	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#12	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

TEX 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Texas 17.5 (49.5)
Texas won at Baylor this year (38-6)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Baylor in 2023 (38-6)

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	272	394	69%	3479	22	6	8.8
Maalik Murphy	40	71	56%	477	3	3	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathon Brooks	187	1139	10	6.1	67
CJ Baxter Jr.	138	659	5	4.8	54
Jaydon Blue	65	398	3	6.1	69
Keilan Robinson	12	134	3	11.2	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Worthy	75	1014	5	13.5	54
Adonai Mitchell (Tr)	55	845	11	15.4	62
Ja'Tavion Sanders	45	682	2	15.2	50
Jordan Whittington	42	505	1	12.0	41

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Jeff Choate (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylan Ford	96	11	1	6	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	66	8	5	3	2
Jahdae Barron	55	4	0	0	5
Michael Taaffe	45	3	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	66	8	5	3	2
Ethan Burke	39	9	5	2	0
Byron Murphy II	26	8	5	6	0
Barryn Sorrell	34	4	3	11	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jerrin Thompson	37	1	7
Terrance Brooks	20	0	5
Jahdae Barron	55	4	5

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4