Baylor at TCU - 2021 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, November 6th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -7.5 (57.0)
TCU 30 - Baylor: 28  (Big 12)

 
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (27 - 18 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -5.5  (SP+ BAY -16)
Projected Score: BAY: 29 - TCU: 24 (53)
BAY Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 81 miles
Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (2 - 9 - 1)
Coach Gary Patterson (180 - 74)
Avg Score : 29 - 35 (31 - 28 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
TCU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 TCU vs Duquesne-42.054.5W 45 - 3UN
Sat 9/11 TCU vs California-11.546.5W 34 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25 TCU vs SMU-8.066.0L 34 - 42ON
Sat 10/2 TCU vs Texas+3.565.5L 27 - 32UN
Sat 10/9 TCU at Texas Tech-2.560.0W 52 - 31OY
Sat 10/16 TCU at Oklahoma+12.564.5L 31 - 52ON
Sat 10/23 TCU vs West Virginia-5.058.0L 17 - 29UN
Sat 10/30 TCU at Kansas State+3.558.5L 12 - 31UN
Sat 11/6 TCU vs Baylor+7.557.0W 30 - 28OY
Sat 11/13 TCU at Oklahoma State+11.053.5L 17 - 63ON
Sat 11/20 TCU vs Kansas-21.064.0W 31 - 28UN
Fri 11/26 TCU at Iowa State+16.061.5L 14 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY.2745%31.646%3.2621944%2034.1537%18.335%39%3.0448.41.11.8
TCU.3245%28.745%3.219444%2373.4.3448%34.950%46%4.7261.41.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1431.627.245%41.1214222192035.459%41%46%44%15%.27
TCU Defense1234.927.748.1%4.721.1 - - - - - 55%44%50%46%15%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1418.318.237%3.041.8 - - - - - 47%52%35%39%20%.15
TCU Offense1228.731.144.6%3.41.3214311942374.957%42%45%44%19%.32

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1431:2320.742%63%5.448.41.11.87.43.1331.3
TCU1229:282146%39%7.161.41.31.14.11.3227.3
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1459%46%40.9219.35.429.283.2674%11%1.19
TCU Defense1255%50% - - - - .313.5384%9%1.09
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1447%35% - - - - .12.7675%13%1.08
TCU Offense1257%45%39.4194.24.921.243.263%14%1.12

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1441%44%16.926.1203.17.812247.261.629%32%.334%1.8
TCU Defense1244%46% - - - - - - 10.421.827%38%.456%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1452%39% - - - - - - 19.221.635%26%.217%2.2
TCU Offense1242%44%16.725.8236.59.214.2196.461.933%38%.565%2.1

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor:    TCU: 2.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.6   TCU: -0.6




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 2.2 NR
TCU's Offense Rating: NR
TCU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
TCU's 2021 Expected Record: -
TCU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.6  #81
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #38
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.2

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 29
TCU 24

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 28
TCU 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 30
TCU 24

Total Points: 54
TCU Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.1
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.7

TCU's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18TCU42Baylor36TCU -3.5TCU66.5Over
202411/02Baylor37TCU34Baylor -2.5Baylor64.0Over
202311/18TCU42Baylor17TCU -13.0TCU62.0Under
202211/19Baylor28TCU29TCU -2Baylor58.0Under
202111/06TCU30Baylor28Baylor -7.5TCU57.0Over
202010/31Baylor23TCU33TCU -3.0TCU0
201911/09TCU23Baylor29Baylor -3.0Baylor48.5Over
201811/17Baylor9TCU16Baylor -1TCU50.5Under
201711/24TCU45Baylor22TCU -25.5Baylor53.0Over
201611/05Baylor22TCU62Baylor -9TCU65.0Over
201511/27TCU28Baylor21Baylor -2TCU75.0Under
201410/11Baylor61TCU58Baylor -11TCU0
201311/30TCU38Baylor41Baylor -14TCU0
201210/13Baylor21TCU49
201109/02Baylor50TCU48
201009/18TCU45Baylor10
200709/01TCU27Baylor0
200609/03Baylor7TCU17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU1396 Overs
Baylor544 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 87 - 63 - 44 - 2
Road Teams8 - 106 - 72 - 44 - 3

(#) BAY at (#) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYTCU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #15 #81
Perf GradeGrade #13 #95
OffenseOff #9 #41
DefenseDef #27 #126
Spec TeamsST #76 #115
TalentTal #41 #35
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCat
BAY OffTCU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #126
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #110
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #22 #114
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #133
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #126
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #97
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
TCU on Offense
CategoryCatTCU OffBAY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #38 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
TCU Run Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #58 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
TCU Pass Game
CategoryCatTCU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #38 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #10 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Down to Average G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 67° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Baylor 7.5 (57.0)
TCU won vs Baylor this year (30-28)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat TCU last year (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)
TCU beat Baylor in 2022 (29-28)

  
BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TCU's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Chad Glasgow (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD