BYU at Baylor - 2024 Matchup Preview
BYU logo BYU Cougars at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -3 (47.0) (-155)  Open: -1.0
BYU 34 - Baylor: 28  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (11 - 2) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (61 - 41)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
BYU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: BYU -0.5   (SP+ BYU -7)

Projected Score: BYU: 26 - BAY: 25 (51)
BAY Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BYU Travel: 1009 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
BYU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 BYU vs Southern Illinois-31
Fri 9/6 BYU at SMU+12.555.5W 18 - 15UY
Sat 9/14 BYU at Wyoming-9.540.5W 34 - 14OY
Sat 9/21 BYU vs Kansas State+7.549.5W 38 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 BYU at Baylor+3.047.0W 34 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 BYU vs Arizona-3.048.5W 41 - 19OY
Fri 10/18 BYU vs Oklahoma State-8.553.0W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/26 BYU at UCF+2.553.5W 37 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 BYU at Utah-3.540.5W 22 - 21ON
Sat 11/16 BYU vs Kansas-3.055.5L 13 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 BYU at Arizona State+3.549.0L 23 - 28ON
Sat 11/30 BYU vs Houston-9.539.5W 30 - 18OY
Sat 12/28 BYU vs Colorado+3.055.5W 36 - 14UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23UY
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35OY
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17UY
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)31.247% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)19.646% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)34.446% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)26.738% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#51 (.22)45% (44)47% (30)3.23 (37)14843% (59)2163.73 (88)#41 (.13)41% (65)46% (99)37% (28)3.79 (68)371.42.1
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1331.22844.7%3.731.4203631482164.752%48%47%43%16%.22
BAY Defense1326.719.839.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1319.621.741.4%3.792.1 - - - - - 51%49%46%37%17%.13
BAY Offense1334.437.346.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1328:3220.535%75%4.4371.42.14.51.2531.7
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1352% (62)47% (30)31.6147.74.718 (78).2 (36)3.23 (37)75% (60)9% (44)0.99 (56)
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1351% (70)46% (99) - - - - .14 (78)2.8 (36)72% (59)9% (86)0.97 (61)
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1348% (74)43% (59)15.627.3215.87.913.820 (58)11 (72).27 (60)1.7 (33)32% (83)33% (49).34 (65)7% (101)2 (96)
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1349% (65)37% (28) - - - - - - 20 (2).12 (21)1.5 (24)31% (83)31% (73).27 (52)8% (11)2 (49)
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 10.80 #28
BYU's Offense Rating: 20.40 #63
BYU's Defense Rating: 6.88 #42
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
BYU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
BYU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #17
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #36
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #21

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 10.80   Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 15.3   Baylor: 8.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

BYU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 26
Baylor 25


Total Points: 51

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Baylor28BYU34BYUBaylor -3BYU47.0Over
202209/10BYU26Baylor20BYUBYU -2.5BYU54.5Under
202110/16Baylor38BYU24BaylorBaylor -5.5Baylor52.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor112 Overs
BYU221 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#28) BYU Info
Power Rating: 10.80 #28
Offense Rating: 20.40 #63
Defense Rating: 6.88 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #21
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

BYU has won 4 straight
BYU has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 6 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

BYU Notes
(11/18) Outplayed KU but lost, Retzlaff awful, Rgame avg
(11/10) B12 refs handed BYU W. Miracle team will end
(10/28) 7.8 ppg via TO's, near top of CFB thru 8 games
(10/19) Gutty W (Ok St). Rgame great. QB meh, had 3 TOs
(10/12) Killed AZ, forced 4 TOs. Rgame/Retzlaff good
(9/28) Run Def great vs Bay. Rgame better, 5-0
(9/26) New DC Jay Hill proving he can really coach
(9/23) Blitzed K St with TOs. Rgame bad, 3.4 ypc
(9/20) QB Retzlaff has been good but TO prone
(9/20) Def has been great, esp vs pass so far (#6)

BYU Highlights
BYU has a good pass defense (#18)
BYU Secondary is very good (#124)
BYU commits very few Penalties (#6)
BYU defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

BYU Deficiencies
BYU does not Sack the QB (#80)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBAYBYU
OverallOver#37#23
OffenseOff#24#45
DefenseDef#90#26
Special TeamsST#2#25
PassingPass#56#36
RushingRush#25#51
Run BlockRBLK#31#51
Pass BlockPBLK#49#51
Route RunningWR Rt#21#42
TacklingTkl#75#78
Run DefenseR Def#51#17
Pass Rush DefPRush#96#61
Coverage DefCov#98#53

Rematch from Week 5
Baylor -3.0 (47.0)
BYU won at Baylor this year (34-28)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat Baylor last year (34-28)
BYU beat Baylor in 2022 (26-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BYU | BAY
Depth Chart: BYU | BAY
Rosters: BYU | BAY
(#22) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Baylor has lost 1 straight
Baylor has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great

Baylor Highlights
Baylor offense is efficent (#59)
Baylor offense is good in red zone (#64)
Baylor does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#31)

Baylor has a good run defense (#108)
Baylor has a great TO Margin (#82)

Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#37)


  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jake Retzlaff21136758%289619127.9
Gerry Bohannon3475%27016.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin13872375.239
Jake Retzlaff10041764.229
Hinckley Ropati6836015.326
Sione I Moa2312735.524
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Roberts50803316.162
Darius Lassiter45703415.657
Keelan Marion24346114.452
Jojo Phillips10211221.157

View BYU's Full Roster
BYU's DC Jay Hill
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Glasker7015424
Harrison Taggart693143
Tyler Batty577282
Tanner Wall530001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly (Tr)50105131
Isaiah Glasker7015424
Blake Mangelson376231
Tyler Batty577282
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marque Collins (Tr)251018
John Nelson232135
Jakob Robinson435025

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Richard Reese5824114.228
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)45567512.635
Monaray Baldwin27478517.746
Hal Presley31429313.853

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Jackie Marshall415250
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Treven Ma'ae407431
Keaton Thomas978420
Garmon Randolph335420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)1310010
Matt Jones1019456
Caden Jenkins250004