Baylor at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at SMU Mustangs(#17)SMU logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
SMU -3.0 (65.5) (-185)  Open: -4.0 | 65.0
Baylor 48 - SMU: 45

 
Bears (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 36 - 30 (47 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
SMU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: SMU -8.5  (SP+ SMU -3)

Projected Score: BAY: 27 - SMU: 36 (63)
SMU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BAY Travel: 91 miles
Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.065.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+7.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+10
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+0
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-7.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+5.550.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-5.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville+0.5
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#30 (.3)47% (37)36.344% (65)3.12 (49)14649% (25)3494.19 (59)#66 (.16)43% (91)29.745% (101)41% (70)4.34 (110)641.71
SMU#36 (.27)44% (58)3441% (94)3.03 (61)12747% (30)2784.32 (49)#18 (.04)41% (59)22.338% (32)43% (83)2.38 (3)67.81.52.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense636.346.546.5%4.191.7264941463494.439%60%44%49%13%.3
SMU Defense622.322.340.6%2.382.3 - - - - - 41%58%38%43%21%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense629.73643.2%4.341 - - - - - 55%44%45%41%15%.16
SMU Offense6343844.1%4.321.522405127278446%53%41%47%17%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor628:302640%52%6.3641.714.51.2128.7
SMU626:1921.538%75%767.81.52.36.73.2328.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense639% (129)44% (65)32.8145.54.48 (87).17 (49)3.12 (49)72% (74)8% (26)1.02 (52)
SMU Defense641% (7)38% (32) - - - - -.06 (12)2.58 (29)59% (15)11% (51)0.86 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense655% (112)45% (101) - - - - .11 (82)3.15 (113)90% (132)8% (109)0.87 (36)
SMU Offense646% (101)41% (94)31.5127.249 (77).12 (72)3.03 (61)84% (13)10% (98)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense660% (10)49% (25)27.242.5348.78.212.819 (3)4 (50).38 (34)1.5 (72)30% (50)39% (13).56 (17)5% (55)2 (72)
SMU Defense658% (130)43% (83) - - - - - - 10 (5).11 (30)1.5 (52)35% (28)32% (98).23 (48)11% (2)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense644% (24)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (46).25 (72)1.5 (46)30% (104)27% (39).25 (57)7% (47)1.8 (28)
SMU Offense653% (41)47% (30)2332277.88.712.115 (13)6 (102).46 (23)1.6 (49)31% (72)28% (96).35 (59)6% (93)2.2 (23)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 15.07  #41
Baylor's Offense Rating: 21.98  #27
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.91  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #51
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5  #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #90

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.07   SMU: 18.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 5.9   SMU: 8.8




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 18.805  #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49  #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 46.5
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 36
Baylor 27


Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 31
Baylor 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
SMU 35
Baylor 32

Total Points: 67
SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06SMU45Baylor48SMU -3.0Baylor65.5Over
201609/10Baylor40SMU13Baylor -28.5SMU72.0Under
201509/04SMU21Baylor56Baylor -20Baylor71.0Over
201408/31Baylor45SMU0Baylor -33.5Baylor75.0Under
201209/02Baylor59SMU24
200509/03SMU23Baylor28
200309/13Baylor10SMU7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU012 Overs
Baylor732 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 31 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams3 - 43 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#41) BAY at (#22) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYSMU
Power RatePwr #41 #22
SP+SP+ #51 #44
Perf GradeGrade #53 #35
OffenseOff #48 #35
DefenseDef #52 #21
Spec TeamsST #75 #78
TalentTal #24 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #42

Baylor Notes
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #21
SuccessSuc #37 #59
ExplosiveExp #27 #58
PPAPPA #30 #18
PowerPwr #27 #20
SP+SP+ #22 #59
Pts POPPO #59 #3
HavocHav #36 #11
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #108 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #32
Run ExplRExp #52 #28
PPAExp #49 #12
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #29
Stuff RateStuff #46 #8
TackleTak -  #23
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #67 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #83
Pass ExplPExl #72 #52
PPAExp #34 #30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #84 #60
F7 HavocF7 #26 #51
DB HavocDB #55 #2
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #52
SuccessSuc #58 #91
ExplosiveExp #15 #27
PPAPPA #36 #66
PowerPwr #30 #64
SP+SP+ #29 #90
Pts POPPO #49 #110
HavocHav #99 #101
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #124 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #101
Run ExplRExp #43 #36
PPAExp #72 #82
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #113
Stuff RateStuff #71 #113
TackleTak -  #30
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #35 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #70
Pass ExplPExl #49 #46
PPAExp #23 #72
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #109
F7 HavocF7 #98 #109
DB HavocDB #93 #47
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 83° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 2
SMU -3.0 (65.5)
Baylor won at SMU this year (48-45)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson15824864%20581948.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington10255755.541
Caden Knighten3716914.649
Michael Turner2612114.717
Joseph Dodds71902.75
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron32456314.348
Michael Trigg29439415.142
Kole Wilson (Tr)24324213.557
Ashtyn Hawkins24304012.736

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas513002
Devyn Bobby331001
Kyland Reed241010
Jacob Redding230002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)113200
Jackie Marshall115200
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Micah Gifford71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Jenkins81003
Keaton Thomas513002
Caldra Williford (Tr)91002

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings13719172%16581568.7
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)8541554.940
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)2822628.187
Dramekco Green185513.113
Derrick McFall123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Romello Brinson32484315.175
Jalen Cooper15271218.175
Jordan Hudson15203213.537
Yamir Knight (Tr)2119029.034

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Ahmaad Moses444100
Brandon Booker331130
Cam Robertson318532
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Robertson318532
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)225400
Terry Webb (Tr)203301
Isaiah Smith227321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Brandon Miyazono212105
Deuce Harmon190004