Baylor at Auburn - 2026 Matchup Preview

Baylor Bears vs Auburn Tigers

Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Auburn -11 (SP+ AUB -10)
Projected Score: BAY: 23 - AUB: 34 (56)
AUB Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 755 miles, 1 hrs behind

Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#39)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Baylor vs Auburn	+13.5
Sat 9/12	Baylor vs Prairie View A&M	-27.5
Sat 9/19	Baylor vs Louisiana Tech	-12.5
Sat 9/26	Baylor vs Colorado	-8
Sat 10/3	Baylor at Arizona State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Baylor vs TCU	+2.5
Sat 10/24	Baylor at Kansas	+2
Sat 10/31	Baylor at UCF	+2.5
Sat 11/7	Baylor vs Iowa State	+0.5
Sat 11/14	Baylor at BYU	+15.5
Sat 11/21	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+20.5
Sat 11/28	Baylor at Houston	+6

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Auburn's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Auburn vs Baylor	-13.5
Sat 9/12	Auburn vs Southern Miss	-23
Sat 9/19	Auburn vs Florida	-8
Sat 9/26	Auburn vs Vanderbilt	-1.5
Sat 10/3	Auburn at Tennessee	+6
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Auburn at Georgia	+14
Sat 10/24	Auburn vs LSU	+1.5
Sat 10/31	Auburn at Ole Miss	+10
Sat 11/7	Auburn vs Arkansas	-12.5
Sat 11/14	Auburn at Mississippi State	-8.5
Sat 11/21	Auburn vs Samford	-38.5
Sat 11/28	Auburn at Alabama	+6.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#49 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (41)	310	3.69 (69)	#81 (.18)	44% (104)	32.6	46% (107)	43% (93)	4.3 (124)	61.4	2	0.9
AUB	#72 (.17)	43% (56)	26.8	47% (30)	3.19 (23)	177	40% (90)	197	3.9 (51)	#19 (.07)	38% (26)	20.7	33% (5)	44% (99)	3.37 (42)	63.7	0.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2
AUB Defense	12	20.7	16.4	38.3%	3.37	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	33%	44%	17%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18
AUB Offense	12	26.8	26.4	43.4%	3.9	0.7	21	374	177	197	4.7	51%	48%	47%	40%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5
Auburn	12	29:25	20.8	39%	52%	7.8	63.7	0.7	1.4	6.6	2.6	3	26.8

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (44)	3.09 (42)	77% (32)	8% (36)	0.9 (99)
AUB Defense	12	48% (44)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.11 (2)	2.25 (4)	70% (59)	11% (20)	0.89 (29)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (107)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (68)
AUB Offense	12	51% (60)	47% (30)	37.8	176.9	4.7	23 (36)	.24 (13)	3.19 (23)	80% (17)	11% (116)	1 (54)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (41)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (67)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (28)	.42 (27)	6% (86)	2.1 (35)
AUB Defense	12	51% (97)	44% (99)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.27 (80)	1.6 (81)	32% (54)	31% (90)	.3 (70)	5% (90)	2 (59)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (71)	1.4 (13)	28% (122)	29% (65)	.24 (51)	6% (86)	1.7 (8)
AUB Offense	12	48% (78)	40% (90)	18.4	30.2	197.1	6.5	10.7	11 (121)	4 (3)	.13 (120)	1.3 (134)	31% (61)	27% (106)	.21 (105)	6% (51)	2 (87)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 7.08 #50
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.89 #43
Baylor's Defense Rating: 13.81 #55
2026 Talent Rating: 862.00 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 7.08 Auburn: 15.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 Auburn: 11.6

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 15.1 #19
Auburn's Offense Rating: 19.13 #27
Auburn's Defense Rating: 5.53 #16
2026 Talent Rating: 982.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #19
Auburn's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Auburn's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 34
Baylor 23

Projected Total Points: 56

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/29	Baylor	24	Auburn	38	Auburn -1.5	Auburn	57.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	1	1	1 Overs
Baylor	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#50) BAY at (#19) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	AUB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#19
SP+SP+	#71	#29
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#45	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	#39	#19

Baylor Notes(2/17) Vibes: Uneasy. Arada hot seat, QB/DC must hit
(2/17) RB Knighten & Turner back. Morris (Fr) big croot
(2/7) QB Lagway has talent, but inconsistent/inj history
(2/7) OC Spavital has big job to get Lagway's best
(2/7) New DC Klanderman (K St) great add to fix Def
(2/7) WR 4 portals must hit, no returning exp
(2/7) OL 6 have starting exp, 4 portals. Prod is ?
(2/7) DL added 5 portal starters. DT much improved
(2/7) CB could be good, S decent as well. 7 portals
Baylor Injury Report

Auburn Notes(2/16) Vibes: Excited for Golesh era & new Offense
(2/26) WRs top 5 were big time weapons at USF
(2/16) RBs extremely deep w Cobb + 3 portal starters
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 50% of drop backs LY
(1/29) New staff under Golesh. DC Durkin remains
(1/29) 60 new on roster after 41 portals out, 39 in
(1/29) QB Brown dynamic under OC Gordon at USF
(1/29) OL 8 portals. 2 FT starters, 3 PT. Lots of G5 guys
(1/29) DL a mix of 5 portals + talented depth. Big ?
(1/29) DBs 7 portals. CBs look OK, S looks avg.
Auburn Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	AUB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#39	#26
ExplosiveExp	#53	#89
PPAPPA	#49	#19
PowerPwr	#43	#16
SP+SP+	#32	#16
Pts POPPO	#69	#42
HavocHav	#56	#50

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#5
Run ExplRExp	#99	#29
PPAExp	#44	#2
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#5
TackleTak	-	NR

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#99
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#81
PPAExp	#67	#80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#36	#20
DB HavocDB	#86	#90

Auburn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#56	#104
ExplosiveExp	#131	#15
PPAPPA	#72	#81
PowerPwr	#27	#55
SP+SP+	#59	#110
Pts POPPO	#51	#124
HavocHav	#99	#126

Auburn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#107
Run ExplRExp	#54	#68
PPAExp	#13	#93
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#20	#123
TackleTak	-	NR

Auburn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#134	#13
PPAExp	#120	#71
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#116	#131
DB HavocDB	#51	#86

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Baylor last year (38-24)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	71	136	1	1.9	38
Drelon Miller	46	134	1	2.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)	53	481	4	9.1	33
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)	28	313	1	11.2	45
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32
Caden Knighten	11	134	1	12.2	39

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)	39	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)	37	12	5	4	0
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jamaal Whyce	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	0	7
Stilton McKelvey (Tr)	18	2	0	0	5
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4

AUB's OC Joel Gordon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown (Tr)	226	341	66%	3158	28	7	9.3
Tristan Ti'a (Tr)	37	53	70%	385	3	2	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown (Tr)	175	1008	14	5.8	60
Jeremiah Cobb	175	969	5	5.5	46
Bryson Washington (Tr)	154	788	6	5.1	41
Tae Meadows (Tr)	159	695	6	4.4	47

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton (Tr)	50	877	8	17.5	66
Jeremiah Koger (Tr)	38	597	8	15.7	63
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	23	466	3	20.3	55
Christian Neptune (Tr)	38	335	1	8.8	43

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Atkins	84	17	9	7	1
Fred Gaskin (Tr)	53	3	1	1	2
Kaleb Harris	50	2	1	0	1
Cody Sigler (Tr)	34	7	5	6	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Atkins	84	17	9	7	1
Cody Sigler (Tr)	34	7	5	6	6
Jared Smith	5	4	2	1	0
Da'Shawn Womack (Tr)	27	5	2	7	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andre Jordan	19	0	0	0	10
Cody Sigler (Tr)	34	7	5	6	6
Sylvester Smith	28	2	0	0	3