TCU at Baylor - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX

Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TCU coming off BYE
BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: TCU -3.5 (SP+ TCU -7)
Projected Score: TCU: 30 - BAY: 27 (57)
TCU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 81 miles

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TCU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

TCU's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	TCU vs North Carolina	-11.5
Sat 9/12	TCU vs Grambling	-31.5
Sat 9/19	TCU vs Arkansas State	-21.5
Sat 9/26	TCU at UCF	-8
Sat 10/3	TCU vs BYU	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	TCU at Baylor	-3.5
Sat 10/24	TCU vs West Virginia	-13
Sat 10/31	TCU vs Kansas	-9
Sat 11/7	TCU at Arizona	+2.5
Sat 11/14	TCU vs Kansas State	-4.5
Sat 11/21	TCU vs Utah	+6
Sat 11/28	TCU at Texas Tech	+21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Baylor's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Baylor at Auburn	+13
Sat 9/12	Baylor vs Prairie View A&M	-25.5
Sat 9/19	Baylor vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5
Sat 9/26	Baylor vs Colorado	-12.5
Sat 10/3	Baylor at Arizona State	+4.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Baylor vs TCU	+3.5
Sat 10/24	Baylor at Kansas	+2
Sat 10/31	Baylor at UCF	-2
Sat 11/7	Baylor vs Iowa State	-0.5
Sat 11/14	Baylor at BYU	+16
Sat 11/21	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+22
Sat 11/28	Baylor at Houston	+7

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#36 (.21)	44% (48)	30.7	43% (79)	2.7 (113)	132	47% (24)	290	4.14 (34)	#59 (.15)	40% (53)	25.3	38% (23)	43% (86)	3.49 (54)	62	1.5	1.6
BAY	#49 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (41)	310	3.69 (69)	#81 (.18)	44% (104)	32.6	46% (107)	43% (93)	4.3 (124)	61.4	2	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Offense	13	30.7	25.5	44.3%	4.14	1.5	22	422	132	290	4	45%	53%	43%	47%	15%	.21
BAY Defense	12	32.6	27.9	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Defense	13	25.3	26.2	40.3%	3.49	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	38%	43%	15%	.15
BAY Offense	12	31.1	29.6	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
TCU	13	28:51	22.2	47%	64%	6.8	62	1.5	1.6	5.2	1.8	1	30
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Offense	13	45% (104)	43% (79)	33.3	131.8	4	20 (60)	.04 (109)	2.7 (113)	77% (35)	9% (71)	0.83 (121)
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (107)	-	-	-	-	.14 (93)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	.06 (44)	2.84 (58)	68% (48)	9% (84)	0.88 (26)
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (44)	3.09 (42)	77% (32)	8% (36)	0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Offense	13	53% (34)	47% (24)	23.5	35.4	290.1	8.2	12.3	30 (3)	15 (108)	.41 (20)	1.6 (35)	33% (89)	34% (23)	.45 (20)	6% (72)	2.1 (26)
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (71)	1.4 (13)	28% (122)	29% (65)	.24 (51)	6% (86)	1.7 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Defense	13	50% (85)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.3 (92)	1.7 (111)	32% (66)	32% (94)	.35 (96)	6% (75)	2.1 (102)
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (41)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (67)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (28)	.42 (27)	6% (86)	2.1 (35)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 8.04 #32
TCU's Offense Rating: 13.74 #45
TCU's Defense Rating: 10.70 #30
2026 Talent Rating: 866.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #31
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3 #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.04 Baylor: 4.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 8.3 Baylor: 1.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 4.62 #53
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.66 #47
Baylor's Defense Rating: 15.82 #60
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 30
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 57

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	TCU	42	Baylor	36	TCU -3.5	TCU	66.5	Over
2024	11/02	Baylor	37	TCU	34	Baylor -2.5	Baylor	64.0	Over
2023	11/18	TCU	42	Baylor	17	TCU -13.0	TCU	62.0	Under
2022	11/19	Baylor	28	TCU	29	TCU -2	Baylor	58.0	Under
2021	11/06	TCU	30	Baylor	28	Baylor -7.5	TCU	57.0	Over
2020	10/31	Baylor	23	TCU	33	TCU -3.0	TCU	0
2019	11/09	TCU	23	Baylor	29	Baylor -3.0	Baylor	48.5	Over
2018	11/17	Baylor	9	TCU	16	Baylor -1	TCU	50.5	Under
2017	11/24	TCU	45	Baylor	22	TCU -25.5	Baylor	53.0	Over
2016	11/05	Baylor	22	TCU	62	Baylor -9	TCU	65.0	Over
2015	11/27	TCU	28	Baylor	21	Baylor -2	TCU	75.0	Under
2014	10/11	Baylor	61	TCU	58	Baylor -11	TCU	0
2013	11/30	TCU	38	Baylor	41	Baylor -14	TCU	0
2012	10/13	Baylor	21	TCU	49
2011	09/02	Baylor	50	TCU	48
2010	09/18	TCU	45	Baylor	10
2007	09/01	TCU	27	Baylor	0
2006	09/03	Baylor	7	TCU	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	5	4	6 Overs
TCU	13	9	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 8	7 - 6	3 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 10	6 - 7	2 - 4	4 - 3

(#32) TCU at (#53) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TCU	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#32	#53
SP+SP+	#37	#71
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#32	#37
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#49

TCU Injury Report

Baylor Injury Report

TCU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#48	#104
ExplosiveExp	#46	#15
PPAPPA	#36	#81
PowerPwr	#45	#60
SP+SP+	#30	#110
Pts POPPO	#34	#124
HavocHav	#64	#126

TCU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#107
Run ExplRExp	#121	#68
PPAExp	#109	#93
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#113	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#123
TackleTak	-	NR

TCU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#13
PPAExp	#20	#71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#71	#131
DB HavocDB	#72	#86

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#39	#53
ExplosiveExp	#53	#92
PPAPPA	#49	#59
PowerPwr	#47	#30
SP+SP+	#32	#50
Pts POPPO	#69	#54
HavocHav	#56	#86

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#23
Run ExplRExp	#99	#26
PPAExp	#44	#44
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#58
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#95
TackleTak	-	NR

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#41	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#111
PPAExp	#67	#92
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#36	#84
DB HavocDB	#86	#75

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Baylor last year (42-36)
Baylor beat TCU in 2024 (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)

TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)	204	331	62%	2829	25	7	8.5
John Hoyet Chance	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremy Payne	110	623	5	5.7	51
Jon Denman	50	178	3	3.6	16
Jaden Craig (Tr)	48	78	3	1.6	26
Major Everhart	5	7	0	1.4	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Dwyer	54	730	7	13.5	69
Jeremy Scott (Tr)	24	417	4	17.4	74
Jeremy Payne	22	207	2	9.4	44
Ed Small	16	186	2	11.6	41

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamel Johnson	96	3	0	3
Jacob Fields (Tr)	90	3	1	5
Kalen Carroll (Tr)	49	2	1	4
Vernon Glover	41	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Koron Hayward (Tr)	19	4	3	2	1
Kylin Jackson	26	5	3	2	1
Ansel Din-Mbuh	24	7	2	2	0
Zachary Chapman	28	3	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Vernon Glover	41	1	0	6
Jacob Fields (Tr)	90	3	1	5
Kalen Carroll (Tr)	49	2	1	4

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	213	337	63%	2264	16	14	6.7
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
D.J. Lagway (Tr)	71	136	1	1.9	38
Drelon Miller	46	134	1	2.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)	53	481	4	9.1	33
Drelon Miller	21	159	1	7.6	32
Caden Knighten	11	134	1	12.2	39
Tony Livingston (Tr)	11	119	2	10.8	38

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)	39	3	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)	37	12	5	4	0
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Kedrick Walker (Tr)	57	7	3	1	0
Jamaal Whyce	29	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	0	7
Ryan Davis (Tr)	14	6	4	1	4
Reggie Bush	11	0	0	0	2