Baylor at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Kansas State -20.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Kansas State 59 - Baylor: 25 (Big 12)

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 23 - 33 (28 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KSU is playing their 6th straight game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kansas State -24.5 (SP+ KSU -24)
Projected Score: BAY: 16 - KSU: 40 (56)
KSU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
BAY Travel: 529 miles

Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (44 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
KSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-28.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Kansas State vs Troy	-15.0	50.0	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Kansas State at Missouri	-3.5	48.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/23	Kansas State vs UCF	-6.0	53.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Kansas State at Oklahoma State	-11.5	53.5	L 21 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/14	Kansas State at Texas Tech	+1.0	57.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Kansas State vs TCU	-5.5	60.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Kansas State vs Houston	-17.5	61.0	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Kansas State at Texas	+4.0	49.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Kansas State vs Baylor	-20.5	55.5	W 59 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Kansas State at Kansas	-7.0	60.5	W 31 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kansas State vs Iowa State	-9.5	46.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/28	Kansas State vs NC State	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	23.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	33.3	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3
KSU	#34 (.28)	47% (18)	37.1	50% (14)	3.33 (28)	205	44% (46)	241	5.11 (1)	#46 (.15)	38% (24)	21	38% (29)	39% (27)	2.98 (12)	43.7	0.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
KSU	#17 (.3)	44% (55)		46% (42)	3.37 (14)	190	42% (68)	196	4.08 (53)	#29 (.11)	36% (6)		34% (4)	38% (32)	3.54 (43)	41.3	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	23.1	27.5	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15
KSU Defense	13	21	16.3	37.8%	2.98	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	38%	39%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	33.3	41.3	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32
KSU Offense	13	37.1	43.9	47.3%	5.11	0.9	24	446	205	241	5	53%	47%	50%	44%	12%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6
Kansas State	13	31:51	23.8	48%	58%	4.8	43.7	0.9	1.8	5.6	1.8	1	30.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)
KSU Defense	13	46% (23)	38% (29)	-	-	-	-	.14 (68)	2.82 (25)	61% (12)	11% (47)	1.24 (130)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)
KSU Offense	13	53% (43)	50% (14)	40.8	205.2	5	32 (10)	.27 (13)	3.33 (28)	75% (60)	6% (5)	0.99 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)
KSU Defense	13	52% (107)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (38)	1.7 (95)	35% (24)	27% (23)	.23 (32)	7% (45)	2.2 (101)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)
KSU Offense	13	47% (88)	44% (46)	19.8	32.8	241.2	7.3	12.2	30 (16)	10 (56)	.31 (60)	1.6 (80)	29% (17)	35% (25)	.46 (31)	6% (50)	2.1 (50)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -7.95 Kansas State: 15.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -8.8 Kansas State: 15.4

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.89 #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.3

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas State 40
Baylor 16

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Kansas State 35
Baylor 17

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Kansas State 39
Baylor 22

Total Points: 61

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.9
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.3

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Baylor	35	Kansas State	34	Baylor -4.5	Kansas State	59.5	Over
2023	11/11	Kansas State	59	Baylor	25	Kansas State -20.5	Kansas State	55.5	Over
2022	11/12	Baylor	3	Kansas State	31	Baylor -2.5	Kansas State	52.0	Under
2021	11/20	Kansas State	10	Baylor	20	Kansas State -2.5	Baylor	49.5	Under
2020	11/28	Baylor	32	Kansas State	31	Baylor -5.5	Kansas State	44.5	Over
2019	10/05	Kansas State	12	Baylor	31	Baylor -1	Baylor	48.5	Under
2018	10/06	Baylor	37	Kansas State	34	Baylor -3.5	Kansas State	54.0	Over
2017	09/30	Kansas State	33	Baylor	20	Kansas State -15	Baylor	57.5	Under
2016	11/19	Baylor	21	Kansas State	42	Kansas State -2	Kansas State	58.5	Over
2015	11/05	Kansas State	24	Baylor	31	Baylor -18.5	Kansas State	67.0	Under
2014	12/06	Baylor	38	Kansas State	27	Baylor -9	Baylor	0
2013	10/12	Kansas State	25	Baylor	35	Baylor -10.5	Kansas State	0
2012	11/17	Baylor	52	Kansas State	24
2011	10/01	Kansas State	36	Baylor	35
2010	10/23	Baylor	47	Kansas State	42
2007	10/27	Kansas State	51	Baylor	13
2006	09/30	Baylor	17	Kansas State	3
2003	11/01	Kansas State	38	Baylor	10
2002	10/26	Baylor	10	Kansas State	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas State	8	8	5 Overs
Baylor	11	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 7	4 - 8	2 - 6	2 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 12	8 - 4	2 - 2	6 - 2

(#108) BAY at (#16) KSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	KSU
Power RatePwr	#108	#16
SP+SP+	#98	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#100	#32
OffenseOff	#82	#23
DefenseDef	#123	#68
Spec TeamsST	#18	#69
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#61

Baylor Injury Report

Kansas State Injury Report

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	KSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#68
SuccessSuc	#102	#24
ExplosiveExp	#57	#127
PPAPPA	#90	#46
PowerPwr	#99	#22
SP+SP+	#78	#39
Pts POPPO	#118	#12
HavocHav	#98	#42

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	KSU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#95
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#29
Run ExplRExp	#53	#130
PPAExp	#101	#68
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#6
TackleTak	-	#123

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	KSU Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#42
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#95
PPAExp	#90	#38
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#12	#114
F7 HavocF7	#103	#47
DB HavocDB	#77	#45

Kansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	KSU Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#23	#123
SuccessSuc	#18	#118
ExplosiveExp	#98	#120
PPAPPA	#34	#130
PowerPwr	#16	#127
SP+SP+	#8	#105
Pts POPPO	#1	#116
HavocHav	#9	#55

Kansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	KSU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#15	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#14	#98
Run ExplRExp	#75	#121
PPAExp	#13	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#28	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#69	#35
TackleTak	-	#103

Kansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	KSU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#107
PPAExp	#60	#131
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#96
F7 HavocF7	#5	#53
DB HavocDB	#50	#75

Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Kansas State -20.5 (55.5)
Kansas State won vs Baylor this year (59-25)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2023 (59-25)
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2022 (31-3)

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4

KSU's OC Collin Klein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard	219	358	61%	2643	24	10	7.4
Avery Johnson	37	66	56%	479	5	0	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Giddens	223	1226	10	5.5	43
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	125	651	5	5.2	52
Will Howard	80	364	9	4.6	70
Avery Johnson	51	288	7	5.6	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ben Sinnott	49	676	6	13.8	44
Phillip Brooks III	53	589	5	11.1	40
Jayce Brown	27	437	3	16.2	46
DJ Giddens	29	323	3	11.1	61

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	63	3	0	1	9
Austin Moore	63	13	2	1	0
Kobe Savage	57	4	0	2	0
VJ Payne	57	3	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khalid Duke	19	8	6	2	0
Nate Matlack	15	8	4	2	1
Jevon Banks (Tr)	9	2	2	1	0
Cody Stufflebean	19	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	63	3	0	1	9
Jacob Parrish	44	3	1	0	9
Will Lee III	42	2	0	0	6