Baylor at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Kansas State -20.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Kansas State 59 - Baylor: 25 (Big 12)

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KSU is playing their 6th straight game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kansas State -24.5 (SP+ KSU -24)
Projected Score: BAY: 16 - KSU: 40 (58)
KSU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
BAY Travel: 529 miles

Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (33 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
KSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State	-28.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Kansas State vs Troy	-15.0	50.0	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Kansas State at Missouri	-3.5	48.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/23	Kansas State vs UCF	-6.0	53.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Kansas State at Oklahoma State	-11.5	53.5	L 21 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/14	Kansas State at Texas Tech	+1.0	57.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Kansas State vs TCU	-5.5	60.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Kansas State vs Houston	-17.5	61.0	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Kansas State at Texas	+4.0	49.5	L 30 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Kansas State vs Baylor	-20.5	55.5	W 59 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Kansas State at Kansas	-7.0	60.5	W 31 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kansas State vs Iowa State	-9.5	46.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Thu 12/28	Kansas State vs NC State	-3.0	48.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	.22	45%	34.4	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	26.7	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5
KSU	.25	43%	30.8	44%	3.19	208	42%	211	4.18	.14	39%	23.4	42%	38%	3.58	42.9	0.9	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	34.4	32	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22
KSU Defense	14	23.4	16.5	39.3%	3.58	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	42%	38%	15%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	26.7	30.7	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2
KSU Offense	14	30.8	33	43%	4.18	0.9	20	419	208	211	5.1	57%	43%	44%	42%	12%	.25

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2
Kansas State	14	31:43	20.1	39%	59%	5.3	42.9	0.9	2.1	4.9	2.1	3	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08
KSU Defense	14	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	60%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88
KSU Offense	14	57%	44%	40.6	208.3	5.1	32	.21	3.19	66%	8%	1.1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2
KSU Defense	14	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.23	1.7	32%	27%	.15	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2
KSU Offense	14	43%	42%	17.3	27.7	210.5	7.6	12.2	21	6	.29	1.7	30%	34%	.51	4%	2.2

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 696.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -7.95 Kansas State: 15.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -8.8 Kansas State: 15.4

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.89 #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
2023 Talent Rating: 710.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas State 40
Baylor 16

Projected Total Points: 58

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.5

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Kansas State	59	Baylor	25	Kansas State	Kansas State -20.5	Kansas State	55.5	Over
2022	11/12	Baylor	3	Kansas State	31	Kansas State	Baylor -2.5	Kansas State	52.0	Under
2021	11/20	Kansas State	10	Baylor	20	Baylor	Kansas State -2.5	Baylor	49.5	Under
2020	11/28	Baylor	32	Kansas State	31	Baylor	Baylor -5.5	Kansas State	44.5	Over
2019	10/05	Kansas State	12	Baylor	31	Baylor	Baylor -1	Baylor	48.5	Under
2018	10/06	Baylor	37	Kansas State	34	Baylor	Baylor -3.5	Kansas State	54.0	Over
2017	09/30	Kansas State	33	Baylor	20	Kansas State	Kansas State -15	Baylor	57.5	Under
2016	11/19	Baylor	21	Kansas State	42	Kansas State	Kansas State -2	Kansas State	58.5	Over
2015	11/05	Kansas State	24	Baylor	31	Baylor	Baylor -18.5	Kansas State	67.0	Under
2014	12/06	Baylor	38	Kansas State	27	Baylor	Baylor -9	Baylor	0
2013	10/12	Kansas State	25	Baylor	35	Baylor	Baylor -10.5	Kansas State	0
2012	11/17	Baylor	52	Kansas State	24	Baylor
2011	10/01	Kansas State	36	Baylor	35	Kansas State
2010	10/23	Baylor	47	Kansas State	42	Baylor
2007	10/27	Kansas State	51	Baylor	13	Kansas State
2006	09/30	Baylor	17	Kansas State	3	Baylor
2003	11/01	Kansas State	38	Baylor	10	Kansas State
2002	10/26	Baylor	10	Kansas State	44	Kansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas State	8	7	4 Overs
Baylor	10	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 7	4 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 11	7 - 4	2 - 2	5 - 2

(#108) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105
Talent Rating: 696.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50

Team Profile

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Baylor Ratings Matchup Kansas State

Power #108

#16

Off #99

#16

Def #127

#22

Talent #49

#44

SP+ #98

#15

SP+ Off #78

SP+ Def #105

#39

Rematch from Week 11
Kansas State -20.5 (55.5)
Kansas State won vs Baylor this year (59-25)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2023 (59-25)
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2022 (31-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | KSU
Depth Chart: BAY | KSU
Rosters: BAY | KSU

(#16) Kansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.89 #16
Offense Rating: 23.70 #16
Defense Rating: 4.11 #22
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #15
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #39
Talent Rating: 710.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #61
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80

Team Profile

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Baylor's OC Jeff Grimes

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
RJ Martinez (Tr)	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Shapen	34	36	2	1.1	18
RJ Martinez (Tr)	8	21	0	2.6	15
Monaray Baldwin	3	3	0	1.0	2
Armani Winfield	1	-9	0	-9.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53
Armani Winfield	38	341	2	9.0	62
Javon Gipson	23	335	2	14.6	43

View Baylor's Full Roster

Baylor's DC Matt Powledge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae (Tr)	40	7	4	3	1
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0
Caleb Parker	15	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae (Tr)	40	7	4	3	1
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0
Tony Anyanwu	2	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caleb Parker	15	1	0	1	2
Treven Ma'ae (Tr)	40	7	4	3	1

Kansas State's OC Collin Klein

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard	309	423	73%	4010	35	10	9.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Giddens	205	1343	7	6.6	66
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	77	406	2	5.3	36
Will Howard	105	226	7	2.2	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	15	268	4	17.9	59
DJ Giddens	21	258	1	12.3	53
Jadon Jackson	15	207	1	13.8	60
Shane Porter	16	91	0	5.7	13

View Kansas State's Full Roster

Kansas State's DC Joe Klanderman

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marques Sigle (Tr)	60	7	0	0	3
Austin Moore	59	7	2	6	1
Kobe Savage	57	3	0	0	1
Jacob Parrish	50	3	0	4	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brendan Mott	45	11	8	5	0
Nate Matlack	23	7	5	8	3
Jevon Banks (Tr)	21	5	2	4	2
Austin Moore	59	7	2	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Will Lee III	42	1	0	10
Jacob Parrish	50	3	4	7
Keenan Garber	29	1	0	5