Baylor at Kansas State - 2023 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo   Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats  Kansas State logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Kansas State -20.5 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Kansas State 59 - Baylor: 25  (Big 12)

 
Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
KSU is playing their 6th straight game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kansas State -24.5  (SP+ KSU -24)
Projected Score: BAY: 17 - KSU: 42 (59)
KSU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
BAY Travel: 529 miles
Wildcats (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (32 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (30 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Baylor vs Texas State-26.558.5L 31 - 42ON
Sat 9/9 Baylor vs Utah+7.046.5L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Baylor vs Long Island University-44.054.0W 30 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Baylor vs Texas+17.549.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 9/30 Baylor at UCF+8.056.5W 36 - 35OY
Sat 10/7 Baylor vs Texas Tech+2.559.5L 14 - 39UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Baylor at Cincinnati+2.551.5W 32 - 29OY
Sat 10/28 Baylor vs Iowa State+3.047.0L 18 - 30ON
Sat 11/4 Baylor vs Houston-3.058.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/11 Baylor at Kansas State+20.555.5L 25 - 59ON
Sat 11/18 Baylor at TCU+13.062.0L 17 - 42UN
Sat 11/25 Baylor vs West Virginia+6.553.5L 31 - 34OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Kansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-28.556.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 9/9 Kansas State vs Troy-15.050.0W 42 - 13OY
Sat 9/16 Kansas State at Missouri-3.548.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 9/23 Kansas State vs UCF-6.053.5W 44 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6 Kansas State at Oklahoma State-11.553.5L 21 - 29UN
Sat 10/14 Kansas State at Texas Tech+1.057.0W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Kansas State vs TCU-5.560.0W 41 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Kansas State vs Houston-17.561.0W 41 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Kansas State at Texas+4.049.5L 30 - 33OY
Sat 11/11 Kansas State vs Baylor-20.555.5W 59 - 25OY
Sat 11/18 Kansas State at Kansas-7.060.5W 31 - 27UN
Sat 11/25 Kansas State vs Iowa State-9.546.0L 35 - 42ON
Thu 12/28 Kansas State vs NC State-3.048.5W 28 - 19UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY.2245%31.147%3.2118244%2314.35.245%32.645%44%4.12411.41.5
KSU.2543%29.444%3.1920842%2114.18.1439%26.742%38%3.5842.90.92.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1331.133.245.1%4.351.4234141822314.455%44%47%44%13%.22
KSU Defense1426.727.339.3%3.582.1 - - - - - 48%50%42%38%15%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1332.639.244.7%4.121.5 - - - - - 51%49%45%44%16%.2
KSU Offense1429.429.743%4.180.9204192082115.157%43%44%42%12%.25

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1331:3022.740%64%4.8411.41.54.61.8230.2
Kansas State1431:4320.139%59%5.342.90.92.14.92.1331.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1355%47%41.2182.44.434.213.2179%9%1.08
KSU Defense1448%42% - - - - .143.2160%9%0.95
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1351%45% - - - - .133.0576%8%0.88
KSU Offense1457%44%40.6208.35.132.213.1966%8%1.1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1344%44%1930.2231.57.712.21911.291.530%33%.344%2
KSU Defense1450%38% - - - - - - 16.231.732%27%.156%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1349%44% - - - - - - 13.281.529%37%.517%2
KSU Offense1443%42%17.327.7210.57.612.2216.291.730%34%.514%2.2

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -7.95  #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22  #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47  #127
2023 Talent Rating: 678.00  #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8  #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -7.95   Kansas State: 15.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -8.8   Kansas State: 15.4




Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.89  #16
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.70  #16
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 4.11  #22
2023 Talent Rating: 616.00  #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #61
Kansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
Kansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4  #15
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #8
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #39

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas State 42
Baylor 17

Projected Total Points: 59
Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Kansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Baylor35Kansas State34Baylor -4.5Kansas State59.5Over
202311/11Kansas State59Baylor25Kansas State -20.5Kansas State55.5Over
202211/12Baylor3Kansas State31Baylor -2.5Kansas State52.0Under
202111/20Kansas State10Baylor20Kansas State -2.5Baylor49.5Under
202011/28Baylor32Kansas State31Baylor -5.5Kansas State44.5Over
201910/05Kansas State12Baylor31Baylor -1Baylor48.5Under
201810/06Baylor37Kansas State34Baylor -3.5Kansas State54.0Over
201709/30Kansas State33Baylor20Kansas State -15Baylor57.5Under
201611/19Baylor21Kansas State42Kansas State -2Kansas State58.5Over
201511/05Kansas State24Baylor31Baylor -18.5Kansas State67.0Under
201412/06Baylor38Kansas State27Baylor -9Baylor0
201310/12Kansas State25Baylor35Baylor -10.5Kansas State0
201211/17Baylor52Kansas State24
201110/01Kansas State36Baylor35
201010/23Baylor47Kansas State42
200710/27Kansas State51Baylor13
200609/30Baylor17Kansas State3
200311/01Kansas State38Baylor10
200210/26Baylor10Kansas State44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas State885 Overs
Baylor1145 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 74 - 82 - 62 - 2
Road Teams7 - 128 - 42 - 26 - 2

(#108) BAY at (#16) KSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYKSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #108 #16
SP+SP+ #98 #15
Perf GradeGrade #100 #32
OffenseOff #82 #23
DefenseDef #123 #68
Spec TeamsST #18 #69
TalentTal #46 #68
Blue ChipsBC% #38 #61
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #82 #68
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #99 #22
SP+SP+ #78 #39
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
Run GameRun #84 #95
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #123
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffKSU Def
Pass GamePass #82 #42
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #12 #114
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Kansas State on Offense
CategoryCatKSU OffBAY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #23 #123
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #16 #127
SP+SP+ #8 #105
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Kansas State Run Game
CategoryCat
KSU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #15 #126
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #103
Kansas State Pass Game
CategoryCatKSU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #61 #116
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #37 #96
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Kansas State -20.5 (55.5)
Kansas State won vs Baylor this year (59-25)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Kansas State last year (35-34)
Kansas State beat Baylor in 2023 (59-25)

  
BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen18429862%21881337.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)6611756%864247.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)12551914.232
Dawson Pendergrass7933854.331
Richard Reese6630624.628
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)356912.031
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Monaray Baldwin38623416.471
Drake Dabney33552516.763
Ketron Jackson (Tr)28489117.555
Jake Roberts (Tr)23231110.037

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones8413415
Devyn Bobby741016
Devin Lemear401003
Caden Jenkins371003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones8413415
Byron Vaughns (Tr)308301
TJ Franklin308331
Gabe Hall184241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devyn Bobby741016
Matt Jones8413415
Corey Gordon311004

KSU's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard21935861%264324107.4
Avery Johnson376656%479507.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Giddens2231226105.543
Treshaun Ward (Tr)12565155.252
Will Howard8036494.670
Avery Johnson5128875.630
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ben Sinnott49676613.844
Phillip Brooks III53589511.140
Jayce Brown27437316.246
DJ Giddens29323311.161

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Austin Moore6313210
Kobe Savage574020
VJ Payne573003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalid Duke198620
Nate Matlack158421
Jevon Banks (Tr)92210
Cody Stufflebean193200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marques Sigle (Tr)633019
Jacob Parrish443109
Will Lee III422006