Baylor at LSU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, December 31st 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Baylor -3 (62.5) (-155) Open: 0.0
LSU 44 - Baylor: 31 (Kinder's Texas Bowl)

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: LSU -5 (SP+ LSU -8)
Projected Score: BAY: 27 - LSU: 32 (59)
BAY Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
BAY Travel: 164 miles

Tigers (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (20 - 7)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
BAY Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

LSU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/1	LSU vs USC	-4.0	66.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	LSU vs Nicholls	-50.5	62.0	W 44 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/14	LSU at South Carolina	-7.0	50.0	W 36 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	LSU vs UCLA	-21.5	56.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/28	LSU vs South Alabama	-21.0	64.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	LSU vs Ole Miss	+3.5	64.5	W 29 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/19	LSU at Arkansas	-3.0	57.0	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	LSU at Texas A&M	+2.0	54.5	L 23 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	LSU vs Alabama	+2.5	57.5	L 13 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/16	LSU at Florida	-3.0	57.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	LSU vs Vanderbilt	-10.0	53.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	LSU vs Oklahoma	-4.5	47.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Tue 12/31	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	31.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	32.6	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3
LSU	#1 (.52)	56% (2)	22.8	58% (1)	3.9 (1)	197	54% (3)	309	4.86 (8)	#126 (.32)	45% (105)	19.8	45% (92)	45% (113)	4.55 (126)	48.2	0.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	31.1	33.2	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15
LSU Defense	13	19.8	16.9	44.8%	4.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	45%	16%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	32.6	39.2	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32
LSU Offense	13	22.8	25.7	56.1%	4.86	0.5	24	506	197	309	6.3	47%	53%	58%	54%	11%	.52

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6
LSU	13	26:37	23.7	56%	43%	5.7	48.2	0.5	1	5.1	2	1	29.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)
LSU Defense	13	49% (51)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.24 (113)	3.22 (97)	91% (132)	10% (79)	1.07 (99)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)
LSU Offense	13	47% (95)	58% (1)	31.2	197	6.3	32 (10)	.45 (1)	3.9 (1)	69% (103)	6% (2)	1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)
LSU Defense	13	51% (86)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.41 (123)	1.7 (112)	32% (64)	34% (118)	.56 (132)	6% (54)	2.5 (132)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)
LSU Offense	13	53% (38)	54% (3)	19.6	28.2	308.6	11	15.7	41 (2)	4 (2)	.59 (4)	1.7 (33)	24% (4)	45% (1)	.74 (1)	5% (29)	2.1 (40)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 383.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 LSU: 15.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 LSU: 15.9

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.42 #15
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
LSU's Defense Rating: 8.72 #59
2024 Talent Rating: 539.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 56 #7
LSU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
LSU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #15
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #11
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 32
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 59

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/31	LSU	44	Baylor	31	Baylor -3	LSU	62.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	1	1	1 Overs
Baylor	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Baylor Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Texas Bowl	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44
2022	Forces Bowl	Baylor vs Air Force	-3.5	42.0	L 15 - 30
2021	Sugar Bowl	Baylor vs Ole Miss	+1.0	60.5	W 21 - 7
2019	Sugar Bowl	Baylor vs Georgia	+4.0	44.0	L 14 - 26
2018	Texas Bowl	Baylor vs Vanderbilt	+4.0	56.5	W 45 - 38

LSU Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Texas Bowl	LSU vs Baylor	+3.0	62.5	W 44 - 31
2023	Reliaquest Bowl	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31
2022	Citrus Bowl	LSU vs Purdue	-15.0	54.0	W 63 - 7
2021	Texas Bowl	LSU vs Kansas State	+9.5	47.0	L 20 - 42
2019	CFP Nat'l Title	LSU vs Clemson	-5.0	67.0	W 42 - 25
2019	CFP Semifinal	LSU vs Oklahoma	-13.0	75.0	W 63 - 28
2018	Fiesta Bowl	LSU vs UCF	-7.5	57.5	W 40 - 32

(#22) BAY at (#15) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	LSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#22	#15
SP+SP+	#38	#15
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#55
OffenseOff	#26	#62
DefenseDef	#110	#53
Spec TeamsST	#2	#103
TalentTal	#43	#10
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#7

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

LSU Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	LSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#53
SuccessSuc	#102	#105
ExplosiveExp	#57	#116
PPAPPA	#90	#126
PowerPwr	#20	#59
SP+SP+	#25	#33
Pts POPPO	#118	#126
HavocHav	#98	#69

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#37	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#92
Run ExplRExp	#53	#99
PPAExp	#101	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#103
TackleTak	-	#38

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#78
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#112
PPAExp	#90	#123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#6
F7 HavocF7	#103	#79
DB HavocDB	#77	#54

LSU on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#110
SuccessSuc	#2	#118
ExplosiveExp	#11	#120
PPAPPA	#1	#130
PowerPwr	#38	#30
SP+SP+	#11	#63
Pts POPPO	#8	#116
HavocHav	#5	#55

LSU Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#89	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#98
Run ExplRExp	#27	#121
PPAExp	#1	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#35
TackleTak	-	#87

LSU Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	LSU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#29	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#107
PPAExp	#4	#131
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#46	#113
F7 HavocF7	#2	#53
DB HavocDB	#29	#75

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Baylor 3.0 (62.5)
LSU won vs Baylor this year (44-31)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Baylor in 2024 (44-31)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4

LSU's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Nussmeier	336	524	64%	4039	29	12	7.7
Rickie Collins	5	5	100%	35	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caden Durham	138	754	6	5.5	86
Josh Williams	117	482	6	4.1	23
Kaleb Jackson	47	149	0	3.2	19
Zavion Thomas (Tr)	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aaron Anderson	61	875	5	14.3	76
Kyren Lacy	58	866	9	14.9	35
Mason Taylor	55	546	2	9.9	33
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	42	480	0	11.4	34

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Jardin Gilbert (Tr)	52	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradyn Swinson	57	13	9	8	3
Savion Jones	40	7	4	8	2
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Dominick McKinley	7	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Stamps	50	0	0	2	11
Whit Weeks	111	8	3	4	4
Zy Alexander	33	3	1	0	4