Baylor at Oklahoma State - 2021 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Oklahoma State -3.5 (47.0)
Oklahoma State 24 - Baylor: 14  (Big 12)

 
Bears (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (27 - 18 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
OKST 2nd straight Home Game
OKST is playing their 5th straight game
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -3.5  (SP+ OKST -2)
Projected Score: BAY: 28 - OKST: 23 (51)
OKST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 316 miles
Cowboys (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Mike Gundy (140 - 67)
Avg Score : 31 - 18 (37 - 18 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Baylor at Texas State-13.552.5W 29 - 20UN
Sat 9/11 Baylor vs Texas Southern-44.553.0W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/18 Baylor at Kansas-17.048.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/25 Baylor vs Iowa State+7.046.0W 31 - 29OY
Sat 10/2 Baylor at Oklahoma State+3.547.0L 14 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Baylor vs West Virginia-1.045.0W 45 - 20OY
Sat 10/16 Baylor vs BYU-5.552.5W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30 Baylor vs Texas-2.061.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 11/6 Baylor at TCU-7.557.0L 28 - 30ON
Sat 11/13 Baylor vs Oklahoma+4.063.0W 27 - 14UY
Sat 11/20 Baylor at Kansas State+2.549.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/27 Baylor vs Texas Tech-14.051.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 12/4 Baylor vs Oklahoma State+7.045.0W 21 - 16UY
Sat 1/1 Baylor vs Ole Miss+1.060.5W 21 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Oklahoma State vs Missouri State-38.055.0W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/11 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-11.551.0W 28 - 23UN
Sat 9/18 Oklahoma State at Boise State+3.558.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 9/25 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State-6.047.5W 31 - 20OY
Sat 10/2 Oklahoma State vs Baylor-3.547.0W 24 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Oklahoma State at Texas+3.061.0W 32 - 24UY
Sat 10/23 Oklahoma State at Iowa State+7.547.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/30 Oklahoma State vs Kansas-28.554.5W 55 - 3OY
Sat 11/6 Oklahoma State at West Virginia-3.548.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/13 Oklahoma State vs TCU-11.053.5W 63 - 17OY
Sat 11/20 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech-10.055.0W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/27 Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma-4.050.0W 37 - 33ON
Sat 12/4 Oklahoma State vs Baylor-7.045.0L 16 - 21UN
Sat 1/1 Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5W 37 - 35OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY.2745%31.646%3.2621944%2034.1537%18.335%39%3.0448.41.11.8
OKST.1642%31.141%2.7218644%2323.87.0536%18.134%38%3.0555.81.41.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1431.627.245%41.1214222192035.459%41%46%44%15%.27
OKST Defense1418.11836%3.051.5 - - - - - 44%56%34%38%23%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1418.318.237%3.041.8 - - - - - 47%52%35%39%20%.15
OKST Offense1431.137.342.4%3.871.4244171862324.254%46%41%44%16%.16

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1431:2320.742%63%5.448.41.11.87.43.1331.3
Oklahoma State1430:5223.643%54%655.81.41.58.44.1431
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1459%46%40.9219.35.429.283.2674%11%1.19
OKST Defense1444%34% - - - - -.032.3547%16%0.93
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1447%35% - - - - .12.7675%13%1.08
OKST Offense1454%41%44.3185.54.227.042.7265%11%0.87

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1441%44%16.926.1203.17.812247.261.629%32%.334%1.8
OKST Defense1456%38% - - - - - - 9.131.535%25%.126%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1452%39% - - - - - - 19.221.635%26%.217%2.2
OKST Offense1446%44%19.631.9231.97.311.92313.321.531%29%.266%2

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Baylor's 2021 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6  #15
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor:    Oklahoma State: 11.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.6   Oklahoma State: 17.2




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: 11.1 NR
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: NR
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Oklahoma State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Oklahoma State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.2  #12
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #53
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #4

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.2

Baylor's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 28
Oklahoma State 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 33
Oklahoma State 20

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Oklahoma State 26
Baylor 24

Total Points: 50
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 18.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Oklahoma State's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Oklahoma State27Baylor45Baylor -21Oklahoma State58.5Over
202410/26Baylor38Oklahoma State28Baylor -7.0Baylor64.5Over
202210/01Baylor25Oklahoma State36Baylor -2.5Oklahoma State56.0Over
202112/04Oklahoma State16Baylor21Oklahoma State -7Baylor45.0Under
202110/02Oklahoma State24Baylor14Oklahoma State -3.5Oklahoma State47.0Under
202012/12Baylor3Oklahoma State42Oklahoma State -6Oklahoma State49.5Under
201910/19Oklahoma State27Baylor45Oklahoma State -5.5Baylor68.5Over
201811/03Baylor35Oklahoma State31Oklahoma State -6Baylor68.0Under
201710/14Oklahoma State59Baylor16Oklahoma State -26Oklahoma State68.5Over
201609/24Baylor35Oklahoma State24Baylor -10Baylor73.5Under
201511/21Oklahoma State35Baylor45Baylor -3Baylor76.5Over
201411/22Baylor49Oklahoma State28Baylor -25Oklahoma State0
201311/23Oklahoma State49Baylor17Baylor -13Oklahoma State0
201212/01Baylor41Oklahoma State34
201110/29Oklahoma State59Baylor24
201011/06Oklahoma State55Baylor28
200910/24Baylor7Oklahoma State34
200810/18Oklahoma State34Baylor6
200711/17Baylor14Oklahoma State45
200611/11Oklahoma State66Baylor24
200511/19Baylor44Oklahoma State34
200411/13Oklahoma State49Baylor21
200311/22Baylor21Oklahoma State38
200111/17Baylor22Oklahoma State38
200011/17Oklahoma State50Baylor22
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State1576 Overs
Baylor1065 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 107 - 64 - 43 - 2
Road Teams10 - 156 - 72 - 34 - 4

(#) BAY at (#) OKST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYOKST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #15 #12
Perf GradeGrade #13 #13
OffenseOff #9 #49
DefenseDef #27 #4
Spec TeamsST #76 #8
TalentTal #41 #54
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Baylor on Offense
CategoryCat
BAY OffOKST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #4
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #4
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Baylor Run Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #22 #7
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #52
Baylor Pass Game
CategoryCat
BAY OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #54 #6
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #36
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Oklahoma State on Offense
CategoryCatOKST OffBAY Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #49 #27
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #53 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Oklahoma State Run Game
CategoryCat
OKST OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #77 #34
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #58 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #55
Oklahoma State Pass Game
CategoryCatOKST OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #20 #45
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #44 #42
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 78° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Oklahoma State -3.5 (47.0)
Oklahoma State won vs Baylor this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (38-28)
Oklahoma State beat Baylor in 2022 (36-25)

  
BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD