Baylor at Colorado - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Colorado -2.5 (52.5) (-135) Open: 0.0
Colorado 38 - Baylor: 31 (Big 12)

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

COLO is playing their 4th straight game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado -3 (SP+ BAY -0.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 27 - COLO: 30 (59)
COLO Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 741 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Buffaloes (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Deion Sanders (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (39 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
COLO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Colorado's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Colorado vs North Dakota State	-9.0	59.0	W 31 - 26	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado at Nebraska	+6.5	55.0	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado at Colorado State	-7.5	58.5	W 28 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Colorado vs Baylor	-2.5	52.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Colorado at UCF	+12.5	60.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Colorado vs Kansas State	+3.5	54.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado at Arizona	+2.5	57.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado vs Cincinnati	-6.0	57.0	W 34 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Colorado at Texas Tech	-5.0	62.0	W 41 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Colorado vs Utah	-13.5	43.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado vs Kansas	-2.5	59.0	L 21 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado vs Oklahoma State	-14.5	66.5	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/28	Colorado vs BYU	-3.0	55.5	L 14 - 36	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	34.4	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	26.7	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3
COLO	#58 (.21)	41% (77)	32.9	36% (127)	3.08 (75)	69	44% (45)	295	4.24 (33)	#123 (.3)	47% (128)	23.1	48% (115)	48% (128)	4.29 (113)	71.2	0.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
COLO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	12	34.4	32	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15
COLO Defense	12	23.1	22.5	47.4%	4.29	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	48%	48%	16%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	12	26.7	30.7	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32
COLO Offense	12	32.9	38.7	41.4%	4.24	0.9	21	364	69	295	2.3	35%	65%	36%	44%	17%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6
Colorado	12	27:34	21.2	38%	67%	8.9	71.2	0.9	1.8	5.5	2.3	1	28.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)
COLO Defense	12	48% (45)	48% (115)	-	-	-	-	.24 (114)	3.14 (78)	88% (130)	10% (68)	1.03 (87)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)
COLO Offense	12	35% (131)	36% (127)	29.8	68.9	2.3	12 (116)	-.01 (127)	3.08 (75)	73% (76)	12% (111)	0.94 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)
COLO Defense	12	51% (95)	48% (128)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.39 (116)	1.5 (49)	30% (99)	39% (131)	.51 (128)	6% (84)	2 (66)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)
COLO Offense	12	65% (1)	44% (45)	26.9	39.5	294.7	7.5	11	29 (18)	4 (2)	.32 (53)	1.5 (87)	34% (106)	34% (34)	.52 (15)	5% (40)	2.2 (22)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 Colorado: 13.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 Colorado: 8.1

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: 13.29 #18
Colorado's Offense Rating: 23.21 #36
Colorado's Defense Rating: 3.47 #15
2024 Talent Rating: 718.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Colorado's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Colorado's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #39
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #45

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado 30
Baylor 27

Projected Total Points: 59

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Colorado's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Colorado	38	Baylor	31	Colorado	Colorado -2.5	Colorado	52.5	Over
2010	10/16	Colorado	25	Baylor	31	Baylor
2007	10/06	Baylor	23	Colorado	43	Colorado
2006	10/07	Colorado	31	Baylor	34	Baylor
2003	10/04	Baylor	42	Colorado	30	Baylor
2002	10/19	Colorado	34	Baylor	0	Colorado

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado	3	1	1 Overs
Baylor	3	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#22) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great

Baylor Ratings Matchup Colorado

Power #22

#18

Off #20

#36

Def #30

#15

Talent #39

#54

SP+ #38

#39

SP+ Off #25

#27

SP+ Def #63

#45

Rematch from Week 4
Colorado -2.5 (52.5)
Colorado won vs Baylor this year (38-31)

Previous Matchups
Colorado beat Baylor last year (38-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Folsom Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 61°

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | COLO
Depth Chart: BAY | COLO
Rosters: BAY | COLO

(#18) Colorado Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.29 #18
Offense Rating: 23.21 #36
Defense Rating: 3.47 #15
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #39
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #45
Talent Rating: 718.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.34 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.3 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Colorado Notes
(11/29) Killed Pokes, Sanders/Hunter great, Def great
(11/23) Run Def mauled by KU, 331, 5.8 ypc. Zero run game
(11/18) Run Def great vs Utah, Sanders great, B12 favs?
(11/13) Sanders great, Def so much better in TT W
(10/28) Buffs fav'd in last 4, can make B12 title game
(10/27) Def good vs Cincy. Quietly a good team? Strange
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 74% (#12), incredible
(10/19) Def held Az 245 yds, Rgame better. Contenders?
(10/14) #2 WR Horn left K St game (inj)
(10/13) Good fight KSt. Rgame -29 yds! Def was Ok

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Michael Trigg (Tr)	30	395	3	13.2	42
Bryson Washington	22	217	1	9.9	23

View Baylor's Full Roster

Baylor's DC Matt Powledge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0
Carl Williams IV	36	6	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Steve Linton (Tr)	26	7	3	3	0
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0
Carl Williams IV	36	6	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	10
Caden Jenkins	25	0	4
Corey Gordon	33	2	2

Colorado's OC Pat Shurmur

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Staub	0	4	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Augustave (Tr)	85	384	4	4.5	37
Dallan Hayden (Tr)	64	196	1	3.1	27
Micah Welch	43	186	4	4.3	25
Charlie Offerdahl	26	119	1	4.6	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
LaJohntay Wester (Tr)	74	931	10	12.6	69
Will Sheppard (Tr)	48	621	6	12.9	47
Drelon Miller	32	277	3	8.7	49
Omarion Miller	10	216	1	21.6	58

View Colorado's Full Roster

Colorado's DC Robert Livingston

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	79	12	2	2	4
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	0	8
Carter Stoutmire	42	1	0	2	7
Arden Walker	33	7	5	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
B.J. Green II	32	12	8	5
Arden Walker	33	7	5	2
Keaten Wade (Tr)	20	7	4	1
Taje Mccoy	24	4	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	8
Carter Stoutmire	42	1	2	7
Colton Hood (Tr)	23	1	0	6