Baylor at Colorado - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Colorado -2.5 (52.5) (-135) Open: 0.0
Colorado 38 - Baylor: 31 (Big 12)

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

COLO is playing their 4th straight game
BAY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Colorado -3 (SP+ BAY -0.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 25 - COLO: 28 (53)
COLO Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 741 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Buffaloes (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Deion Sanders (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (39 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
COLO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Colorado's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Colorado vs North Dakota State	-9.0	59.0	W 31 - 26	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado at Nebraska	+6.5	55.0	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado at Colorado State	-7.5	58.5	W 28 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Colorado vs Baylor	-2.5	52.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Colorado at UCF	+12.5	60.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Colorado vs Kansas State	+3.5	54.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado at Arizona	+2.5	57.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado vs Cincinnati	-6.0	57.0	W 34 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Colorado at Texas Tech	-5.0	62.0	W 41 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Colorado vs Utah	-13.5	43.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado vs Kansas	-2.5	59.0	L 21 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado vs Oklahoma State	-14.5	66.5	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/28	Colorado vs BYU	-3.0	55.5	L 14 - 36	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	34.4	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	26.7	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)	32.9	44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)	23.1	40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)		44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)		40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	34.4	32	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25
COLO Defense	13	23.1	22.5	38.4%	3.3	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	40%	36%	20%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	26.7	30.7	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18
COLO Offense	13	32.9	38.7	44.5%	4.34	0.9	20	368	66	302	2.7	37%	63%	44%	45%	17%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5
Colorado	13	26:03	19.7	41%	40%	7.1	62.8	0.9	1.8	6.7	2.8	2	31.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)
COLO Defense	13	53% (93)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.06 (37)	2.87 (47)	78% (98)	12% (19)	1.06 (100)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)
COLO Offense	13	37% (133)	44% (73)	24.2	66	2.7	15 (96)	.08 (94)	2.76 (110)	82% (16)	11% (104)	0.86 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)
COLO Defense	13	47% (46)	36% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.13 (24)	1.6 (61)	35% (25)	29% (50)	.24 (41)	8% (18)	1.9 (31)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)
COLO Offense	13	63% (2)	45% (34)	25.9	35.2	302	8.6	11.7	35 (3)	8 (40)	.34 (32)	1.6 (53)	33% (96)	35% (27)	.47 (18)	6% (78)	2.1 (54)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 Colorado: 13.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 Colorado: 8.1

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: 13.29 #18
Colorado's Offense Rating: 23.21 #36
Colorado's Defense Rating: 3.47 #15
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Colorado's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Colorado's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #39
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #45

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado 28
Baylor 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Colorado 23
Baylor 23

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Colorado 32
Baylor 28

Total Points: 60

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.7
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Colorado's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Colorado	38	Baylor	31	Colorado -2.5	Colorado	52.5	Over
2010	10/16	Colorado	25	Baylor	31
2007	10/06	Baylor	23	Colorado	43
2006	10/07	Colorado	31	Baylor	34
2003	10/04	Baylor	42	Colorado	30
2002	10/19	Colorado	34	Baylor	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado	3	1	1 Overs
Baylor	3	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#22) BAY at (#18) COLO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	COLO
Power RatePwr	#22	#18
SP+SP+	#38	#39
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#27
OffenseOff	#26	#26
DefenseDef	#110	#39
Spec TeamsST	#2	#87
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#26

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

Colorado Notes(12/18) Signed QB Slater (Liberty)
(11/29) Killed Pokes, Sanders/Hunter great, Def great
(11/23) Run Def mauled by KU, 331, 5.8 ypc. Zero run game
(11/18) Run Def great vs Utah, Sanders great, B12 favs?
(11/13) Sanders great, Def so much better in TT W
(10/28) Buffs fav'd in last 4, can make B12 title game
(10/27) Def good vs Cincy. Quietly a good team? Strange
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 74% (#12), incredible
(10/19) Def held Az 245 yds, Rgame better. Contenders?
(10/14) #2 WR Horn left K St game (inj)
(10/13) Good fight KSt. Rgame -29 yds! Def was Ok
(10/13) Star WR/CB Hunter left K St game (inj)
Colorado Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	COLO Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#39
SuccessSuc	#23	#30
ExplosiveExp	#49	#76
PPAPPA	#29	#22
PowerPwr	#20	#15
SP+SP+	#25	#45
Pts POPPO	#30	#21
HavocHav	#17	#13

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	COLO Def
Run GameRun	#37	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#43
Run ExplRExp	#50	#100
PPAExp	#41	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#51
TackleTak	-	#72

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	COLO Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#61
PPAExp	#21	#24
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#33
F7 HavocF7	#9	#19
DB HavocDB	#55	#18

Colorado on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#110
SuccessSuc	#48	#38
ExplosiveExp	#31	#102
PPAPPA	#35	#74
PowerPwr	#36	#30
SP+SP+	#27	#63
Pts POPPO	#28	#77
HavocHav	#97	#83

Colorado Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#98	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#73	#13
Run ExplRExp	#121	#92
PPAExp	#94	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	#110	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#90
TackleTak	-	#87

Colorado Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#3	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#99
PPAExp	#32	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#113
F7 HavocF7	#104	#84
DB HavocDB	#78	#80

Program Comparison
COLO 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Folsom Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 61°

Rematch from Week 4
Colorado -2.5 (52.5)
Colorado won vs Baylor this year (38-31)

Previous Matchups
Colorado beat Baylor last year (38-31)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4

COLO's OC Pat Shurmur (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Shedeur Sanders	353	477	74%	4134	37	10	8.7
Ryan Staub	0	4	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Augustave (Tr)	85	384	4	4.5	37
Dallan Hayden (Tr)	64	196	1	3.1	27
Micah Welch	43	186	4	4.3	25
Charlie Offerdahl	26	119	1	4.6	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Travis Hunter	96	1258	15	13.1	58
LaJohntay Wester (Tr)	74	931	10	12.6	69
Will Sheppard (Tr)	48	621	6	12.9	47
Jimmy Horn Jr.	37	441	1	11.9	69

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Robert Livingston (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig	86	10	2	4	3
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	79	12	2	2	4
Shilo Sanders	64	3	1	0	2
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
B.J. Green II	32	12	8	5
Arden Walker	33	7	5	2
Taje Mccoy	24	4	4	2
Keaten Wade (Tr)	20	7	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Travis Hunter	35	1	0	11
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	8
Carter Stoutmire	42	1	2	7