TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -2.5 (64.0) (-135) Open: -2.5
Baylor 37 - TCU: 34 (Big 12)
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
BAY 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Baylor -1 (SP+ TCU -2.5)
Projected Score: TCU: 30 - BAY: 31 (62)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 81 miles
Our Line: Baylor -1 (SP+ TCU -2.5)
Projected Score: TCU: 30 - BAY: 31 (62)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 81 miles
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
| TCU's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Fri 8/30 | TCU at Stanford | -8.0 | 58.5 | W 34 - 27 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | TCU vs Long Island University | -45.5 | 56.5 | W 45 - 0 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | TCU vs UCF | -1.5 | 61.5 | L 34 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | TCU at SMU | -1.0 | 58.5 | L 42 - 66 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | TCU vs Kansas | +1.5 | 58.5 | W 38 - 27 | O | Y | |
| Fri 10/4 | TCU vs Houston | -16.5 | 52.0 | L 19 - 30 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/19 | TCU at Utah | +3.0 | 52.0 | W 13 - 7 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | TCU vs Texas Tech | -5.0 | 66.0 | W 35 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/2 | TCU at Baylor | +2.5 | 64.0 | L 34 - 37 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/9 | TCU vs Oklahoma State | -10.5 | 68.5 | W 38 - 13 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/23 | TCU vs Arizona | -10.5 | 60.0 | W 49 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | TCU at Cincinnati | -2.5 | 58.5 | W 20 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 12/28 | TCU vs Louisiana | -9.5 | 61.0 | W 34 - 3 | U | Y | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
| Baylor's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Baylor vs Tarleton State | -33.5 | 53.5 | W 45 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Baylor at Utah | +14.5 | 52.5 | L 12 - 23 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Baylor vs Air Force | -17.5 | 40.5 | W 31 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Baylor at Colorado | +2.5 | 52.5 | L 31 - 38 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | Baylor vs BYU | -3.0 | 47.0 | L 28 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | Baylor at Iowa State | +13.0 | 45.0 | L 21 - 43 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Baylor at Texas Tech | +4.5 | 56.0 | W 59 - 35 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Baylor vs Oklahoma State | -7.0 | 64.5 | W 38 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | Baylor vs TCU | -2.5 | 64.0 | W 37 - 34 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Baylor at West Virginia | -2.0 | 60.0 | W 49 - 35 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Baylor at Houston | -7.0 | 51.0 | W 20 - 10 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Baylor vs Kansas | +2.5 | 62.5 | W 45 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Tue 12/31 | Baylor vs LSU | -3.0 | 62.5 | L 31 - 44 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | #18 (.3) | 47% (20) | 33.5 | 45% (53) | 2.95 (85) | 106 | 49% (9) | 293 | 4.46 (20) | #82 (.19) | 42% (67) | 24.6 | 46% (102) | 36% (18) | 3.82 (72) | 49.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| BAY | #29 (.25) | 47% (23) | 34.4 | 46% (37) | 3.19 (43) | 174 | 48% (14) | 227 | 4.28 (30) | #74 (.18) | 39% (38) | 26.7 | 38% (13) | 42% (78) | 3.85 (77) | 58.1 | 1 | 1.6 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | #18 (.3) | 47% (20) | 45% (53) | 2.95 (85) | 106 | 49% (9) | 293 | 4.46 (20) | #82 (.19) | 42% (67) | 46% (102) | 36% (18) | 3.82 (72) | 49.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | ||
| BAY | #29 (.25) | 47% (23) | 46% (37) | 3.19 (43) | 174 | 48% (14) | 227 | 4.28 (30) | #74 (.18) | 39% (38) | 38% (13) | 42% (78) | 3.85 (77) | 58.1 | 1 | 1.6 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Offense | 13 | 33.5 | 28.6 | 47.1% | 4.46 | 1.6 | 21 | 400 | 106 | 293 | 3.9 | 42% | 58% | 45% | 49% | 13% | .3 |
| BAY Defense | 13 | 26.7 | 19.8 | 39.4% | 3.85 | 1.6 | - | - | - | - | - | 54% | 46% | 38% | 42% | 15% | .18 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Defense | 13 | 24.6 | 30 | 41.5% | 3.82 | 1.1 | - | - | - | - | - | 53% | 47% | 46% | 36% | 14% | .19 |
| BAY Offense | 13 | 34.4 | 37.3 | 46.8% | 4.28 | 1 | 21 | 401 | 174 | 227 | 5 | 52% | 48% | 46% | 48% | 12% | .25 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 13 | 26:11 | 21 | 44% | 80% | 5.2 | 49.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1 | 31.7 |
| Baylor | 13 | 25:48 | 20.6 | 44% | 61% | 5.8 | 58.1 | 1 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 31.5 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Offense | 13 | 42% (119) | 45% (53) | 27.6 | 106.4 | 3.9 | 26 (36) | .08 (95) | 2.95 (85) | 73% (70) | 8% (36) | 0.94 (85) |
| BAY Defense | 13 | 54% (107) | 38% (13) | - | - | - | - | .11 (64) | 3.03 (74) | 82% (122) | 9% (84) | 1.03 (92) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Defense | 13 | 53% (95) | 46% (102) | - | - | - | - | .22 (118) | 3.26 (104) | 89% (134) | 9% (105) | 1.02 (87) |
| BAY Offense | 13 | 52% (61) | 46% (37) | 35.1 | 174.3 | 5 | 23 (52) | .18 (41) | 3.19 (43) | 77% (42) | 7% (9) | 1.01 (50) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Offense | 13 | 58% (19) | 49% (9) | 23.5 | 34.9 | 293.2 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 25 (31) | 10 (63) | .47 (5) | 1.6 (75) | 31% (57) | 33% (47) | .4 (39) | 5% (38) | 2.1 (55) |
| BAY Defense | 13 | 46% (29) | 42% (78) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13 (31) | .26 (80) | 1.7 (99) | 34% (39) | 31% (77) | .38 (98) | 6% (80) | 2.1 (83) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Defense | 13 | 47% (41) | 36% (18) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (93) | .18 (40) | 1.5 (57) | 34% (42) | 27% (19) | .19 (22) | 6% (81) | 1.8 (26) |
| BAY Offense | 13 | 48% (75) | 48% (14) | 17.2 | 27.8 | 227.1 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 29 (12) | 9 (48) | .37 (21) | 1.6 (49) | 29% (29) | 36% (24) | .37 (53) | 6% (55) | 2 (91) |
TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 12.40 Baylor: 12.785
SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8 Baylor: 8.4
TCU: 12.40 Baylor: 12.785
SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8 Baylor: 8.4
Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30
TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30
TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 31
TCU 30
Total Points: 62
Baylor 31
TCU 30
Total Points: 62
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8
Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8
Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/02 | Baylor | 37 | TCU | 34 | Baylor | Baylor -2.5 | Baylor | 64.0 | Over |
| 2023 | 11/18 | TCU | 42 | Baylor | 17 | TCU | TCU -13.0 | TCU | 62.0 | Under |
| 2022 | 11/19 | Baylor | 28 | TCU | 29 | TCU | TCU -2 | Baylor | 58.0 | Under |
| 2021 | 11/06 | TCU | 30 | Baylor | 28 | TCU | Baylor -7.5 | TCU | 57.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/31 | Baylor | 23 | TCU | 33 | TCU | TCU -3.0 | TCU | 0 | |
| 2019 | 11/09 | TCU | 23 | Baylor | 29 | Baylor | Baylor -3.0 | Baylor | 48.5 | Over |
| 2018 | 11/17 | Baylor | 9 | TCU | 16 | TCU | Baylor -1 | TCU | 50.5 | Under |
| 2017 | 11/24 | TCU | 45 | Baylor | 22 | TCU | TCU -25.5 | Baylor | 53.0 | Over |
| 2016 | 11/05 | Baylor | 22 | TCU | 62 | TCU | Baylor -9 | TCU | 65.0 | Over |
| 2015 | 11/27 | TCU | 28 | Baylor | 21 | TCU | Baylor -2 | TCU | 75.0 | Under |
| 2014 | 10/11 | Baylor | 61 | TCU | 58 | Baylor | Baylor -11 | TCU | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/30 | TCU | 38 | Baylor | 41 | Baylor | Baylor -14 | TCU | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/13 | Baylor | 21 | TCU | 49 | TCU | ||||
| 2011 | 09/02 | Baylor | 50 | TCU | 48 | Baylor | ||||
| 2010 | 09/18 | TCU | 45 | Baylor | 10 | TCU | ||||
| 2007 | 09/01 | TCU | 27 | Baylor | 0 | TCU | ||||
| 2006 | 09/03 | Baylor | 7 | TCU | 17 | TCU |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 5 | 4 | 5 Overs |
| TCU | 12 | 8 | 4 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 9 - 8 | 6 - 6 | 2 - 4 | 4 - 2 |
| Road Teams | 8 - 9 | 6 - 6 | 2 - 4 | 4 - 2 |
(#21) TCU Info
Power Rating: 12.40 #21
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
TCU has won 2 straight
TCU has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
TCU Notes
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
TCU Highlights
TCU offense is efficent (#9)
TCU offense is good in red zone (#29)
TCU has a good pass defense (#104)
TCU Deficiencies
TCU has a bad TO Margin (#28)
TCU Fumbles a Lot (#1)
TCU Can Not Run the Ball (#97)
TCU has a bad defensive line (#106)
Power Rating: 12.40 #21
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
TCU has won 2 straight
TCU has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
TCU Notes
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
TCU Highlights
TCU offense is efficent (#9)
TCU offense is good in red zone (#29)
TCU has a good pass defense (#104)
TCU Deficiencies
TCU has a bad TO Margin (#28)
TCU Fumbles a Lot (#1)
TCU Can Not Run the Ball (#97)
TCU has a bad defensive line (#106)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | BAY | TCU |
| OverallOver | #37 | #25 |
| OffenseOff | #24 | #27 |
| DefenseDef | #90 | #40 |
| Special TeamsST | #2 | #13 |
| PassingPass | #56 | #15 |
| RushingRush | #25 | #68 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #31 | #62 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #49 | #48 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #21 | #8 |
| TacklingTkl | #75 | #20 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #51 | #53 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #96 | #104 |
| Coverage DefCov | #98 | #12 |
Rematch from Week 10
Baylor -2.5 (64.0)
Baylor won vs TCU this year (37-34)
Previous Matchups
Baylor beat TCU last year (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)
TCU beat Baylor in 2022 (29-28)
Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: TCU | BAY
Depth Chart: TCU | BAY
Rosters: TCU | BAY
(#22) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Baylor has won 2 straight
Baylor has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
Baylor Highlights
Baylor offense is efficent (#59)
Baylor offense is good in red zone (#64)
Baylor does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#31)
Baylor has a good run defense (#108)
Baylor has a great TO Margin (#82)
Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#37)
Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Baylor has won 2 straight
Baylor has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (5 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
Baylor Notes
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
Baylor Highlights
Baylor offense is efficent (#59)
Baylor offense is good in red zone (#64)
Baylor does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#31)
Baylor has a good run defense (#108)
Baylor has a great TO Margin (#82)
Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#37)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hoover | 313 | 471 | 67% | 3949 | 27 | 11 | 8.4 |
| Ken Seals (Tr) | 10 | 13 | 77% | 97 | 1 | 0 | 7.5 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Cook | 119 | 460 | 9 | 3.9 | 19 |
| Savion Williams | 51 | 322 | 6 | 6.3 | 35 |
| Jeremy Payne | 54 | 239 | 3 | 4.4 | 32 |
| Trent Battle | 44 | 186 | 2 | 4.2 | 24 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Bech | 62 | 1034 | 9 | 16.7 | 52 |
| Eric McAlister (Tr) | 39 | 762 | 5 | 19.5 | 84 |
| John Paul Richardson | 57 | 733 | 2 | 12.9 | 38 |
| Savion Williams | 60 | 611 | 6 | 10.2 | 75 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Hodges | 89 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Namdi Obiazor | 81 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Jamel Johnson | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bud Clark | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devean Deal (Tr) | 46 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Cooper McDonald (Tr) | 25 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr) | 38 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Zachary Chapman | 24 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamareon James (Tr) | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Abraham Camara | 55 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sawyer Robertson | 229 | 368 | 62% | 3071 | 28 | 8 | 8.3 |
| Dequan Finn (Tr) | 23 | 43 | 54% | 307 | 3 | 2 | 7.1 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Washington | 175 | 1028 | 12 | 5.9 | 51 |
| Dawson Pendergrass | 121 | 671 | 6 | 5.5 | 55 |
| Richard Reese | 58 | 241 | 1 | 4.2 | 28 |
| Sawyer Robertson | 63 | 230 | 4 | 3.7 | 45 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cameron | 52 | 754 | 10 | 14.5 | 47 |
| Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr) | 45 | 567 | 5 | 12.6 | 35 |
| Monaray Baldwin | 27 | 478 | 5 | 17.7 | 46 |
| Hal Presley | 31 | 429 | 3 | 13.8 | 53 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 101 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Keaton Thomas | 97 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Devyn Bobby | 75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jackie Marshall | 41 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 101 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Treven Ma'ae | 40 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Keaton Thomas | 97 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Garmon Randolph | 33 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorando Johnson (Tr) | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Matt Jones | 101 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Caden Jenkins | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |