TCU at Baylor - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -2.5 (64.0) (-135) Open: -2.5
Baylor 37 - TCU: 34 (Big 12)

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BAY 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Baylor -1 (SP+ TCU -2.5)
Projected Score: TCU: 30 - BAY: 31 (61)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 81 miles

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TCU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#25 (.28)	47% (16)	30.7	49% (18)	3.35 (23)	155	47% (20)	312	3.91 (69)	#96 (.23)	44% (89)	25.3	43% (70)	45% (112)	3.91 (78)	53.6	1.6	1
BAY	#90 (.15)	39% (102)	31.1	40% (107)	2.99 (91)	115	39% (90)	263	3.12 (118)	#130 (.32)	46% (118)	32.6	46% (98)	47% (123)	4.36 (116)	28.9	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Offense	12	30.7	25.5	47.4%	3.91	1.6	25	467	155	312	4.6	42%	57%	49%	47%	13%	.28
BAY Defense	12	32.6	27.9	45.7%	4.36	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	46%	47%	17%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Defense	12	25.3	26.2	43.6%	3.91	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	45%	13%	.23
BAY Offense	12	31.1	29.6	39.5%	3.12	1.3	20	378	115	263	3.3	46%	54%	40%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
TCU	12	27:21	25	46%	50%	6.2	53.6	1.6	1	5	1.8	2	29.9
Baylor	12	31:42	19.8	36%	46%	4.1	28.9	1.3	1.3	5	1.5	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Offense	12	42% (119)	49% (18)	33.8	154.5	4.6	19 (69)	.22 (29)	3.35 (23)	79% (26)	7% (6)	0.96 (93)
BAY Defense	12	54% (114)	46% (98)	-	-	-	-	.24 (115)	3.27 (103)	70% (51)	11% (53)	1.16 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Defense	12	51% (76)	43% (70)	-	-	-	-	.16 (81)	3.16 (82)	78% (100)	8% (117)	1 (72)
BAY Offense	12	46% (99)	40% (107)	34.4	114.8	3.3	13 (108)	.09 (101)	2.99 (91)	74% (63)	12% (103)	1.03 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Offense	12	57% (16)	47% (20)	26.6	41.9	312.2	7.5	11.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.4 (27)	1.6 (63)	31% (54)	42% (4)	.61 (6)	7% (94)	2 (73)
BAY Defense	12	45% (21)	47% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.47 (131)	1.7 (107)	30% (101)	38% (129)	.52 (130)	6% (75)	2.2 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Defense	12	49% (59)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.35 (106)	1.6 (86)	31% (95)	35% (122)	.37 (98)	5% (119)	2 (34)
BAY Offense	12	54% (31)	39% (90)	21.9	36.8	263	7.1	12	15 (96)	7 (21)	.22 (90)	1.6 (79)	34% (109)	26% (103)	.18 (111)	6% (77)	1.8 (123)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 408.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 12.40 Baylor: 12.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8 Baylor: 8.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.785 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 383.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 31
TCU 30

Projected Total Points: 61

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	TCU	42	Baylor	36	TCU -3.5	TCU	66.5	Over
2024	11/02	Baylor	37	TCU	34	Baylor -2.5	Baylor	64.0	Over
2023	11/18	TCU	42	Baylor	17	TCU -13.0	TCU	62.0	Under
2022	11/19	Baylor	28	TCU	29	TCU -2	Baylor	58.0	Under
2021	11/06	TCU	30	Baylor	28	Baylor -7.5	TCU	57.0	Over
2020	10/31	Baylor	23	TCU	33	TCU -3.0	TCU	0
2019	11/09	TCU	23	Baylor	29	Baylor -3.0	Baylor	48.5	Over
2018	11/17	Baylor	9	TCU	16	Baylor -1	TCU	50.5	Under
2017	11/24	TCU	45	Baylor	22	TCU -25.5	Baylor	53.0	Over
2016	11/05	Baylor	22	TCU	62	Baylor -9	TCU	65.0	Over
2015	11/27	TCU	28	Baylor	21	Baylor -2	TCU	75.0	Under
2014	10/11	Baylor	61	TCU	58	Baylor -11	TCU	0
2013	11/30	TCU	38	Baylor	41	Baylor -14	TCU	0
2012	10/13	Baylor	21	TCU	49
2011	09/02	Baylor	50	TCU	48
2010	09/18	TCU	45	Baylor	10
2007	09/01	TCU	27	Baylor	0
2006	09/03	Baylor	7	TCU	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	5	4	6 Overs
TCU	13	9	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 8	7 - 6	3 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 10	6 - 7	2 - 4	4 - 3

(#21) TCU at (#22) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TCU	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#21	#22
SP+SP+	#25	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#32	#51
OffenseOff	#31	#26
DefenseDef	#55	#110
Spec TeamsST	#14	#2
TalentTal	#33	#43
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#53

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#31	#110
SuccessSuc	#16	#118
ExplosiveExp	#51	#120
PPAPPA	#25	#130
PowerPwr	#24	#30
SP+SP+	#19	#63
Pts POPPO	#69	#116
HavocHav	#19	#55

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#97	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#98
Run ExplRExp	#93	#121
PPAExp	#29	#115
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#35
TackleTak	-	#87

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#63	#107
PPAExp	#27	#131
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#113
F7 HavocF7	#6	#53
DB HavocDB	#94	#75

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#55
SuccessSuc	#102	#89
ExplosiveExp	#57	#89
PPAPPA	#90	#96
PowerPwr	#20	#53
SP+SP+	#25	#38
Pts POPPO	#118	#78
HavocHav	#98	#123

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#37	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#70
Run ExplRExp	#53	#72
PPAExp	#101	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#82
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#80
TackleTak	-	#22

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#79	#86
PPAExp	#90	#106
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#124
F7 HavocF7	#103	#117
DB HavocDB	#77	#119

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Baylor -2.5 (64.0)
Baylor won vs TCU this year (37-34)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Baylor last year (42-36)
Baylor beat TCU in 2024 (37-34)
TCU beat Baylor in 2023 (42-17)

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4