Baylor at Utah - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Utah -14.5 (52.5) (-800) Open: -14.0 | 54.5
Utah 23 - Baylor: 12

Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 91.8° (12% Hum)
UTAH 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Baylor -2.5 (SP+ BAY -0.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 28 - UTAH: 25 (53)
UTAH Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
BAY Travel: 1037 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Utes (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kyle Whittingham (162 - 79)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (23 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
UTAH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Baylor vs Tarleton State	-33.5	53.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Baylor at Utah	+14.5	52.5	L 12 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Baylor vs Air Force	-17.5	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Baylor at Colorado	+2.5	52.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Baylor vs BYU	-3.0	47.0	L 28 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Baylor at Iowa State	+13.0	45.0	L 21 - 43	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Baylor at Texas Tech	+4.5	56.0	W 59 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-7.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Baylor vs TCU	-2.5	64.0	W 37 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Baylor at West Virginia	-2.0	60.0	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Baylor at Houston	-7.0	51.0	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Baylor vs Kansas	+2.5	62.5	W 45 - 17	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Baylor vs LSU	-3.0	62.5	L 31 - 44	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Utah's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Utah vs Southern Utah	-37.5	55.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Utah vs Baylor	-14.5	52.5	W 23 - 12	U	N
Sat 9/14	Utah at Utah State	-20.5	43.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Utah at Oklahoma State	-1.0	53.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Utah vs Arizona	-7.5	47.0	L 10 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/11	Utah at Arizona State	-6.0	46.5	L 19 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/19	Utah vs TCU	-3.0	52.0	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Utah at Houston	-4.5	36.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Utah vs BYU	+3.5	40.5	L 21 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Utah at Colorado	+13.5	43.5	L 24 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/23	Utah vs Iowa State	+6.5	42.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Utah at UCF	+9.5	45.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	34.4	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	26.7	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
UTAH	#120 (.08)	37% (125)	23.6	38% (116)	2.73 (114)	130	35% (119)	199	3.4 (111)	#7 (.05)	35% (4)	20.7	37% (10)	34% (6)	3.13 (15)	46.3	1.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
UTAH	#120 (.08)	37% (125)		38% (116)	2.73 (114)	130	35% (119)	199	3.4 (111)	#7 (.05)	35% (4)		37% (10)	34% (6)	3.13 (15)	46.3	1.8	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	34.4	32	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25
UTAH Defense	12	20.7	16.8	35.3%	3.13	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	37%	34%	20%	.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	26.7	30.7	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18
UTAH Offense	12	23.6	23	36.7%	3.4	1.8	17	330	130	199	3.9	49%	51%	38%	35%	19%	.08

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5
Utah	12	32:06	16.6	33%	45%	5.4	46.3	1.8	1.5	6.4	1.9	4	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)
UTAH Defense	12	48% (41)	37% (10)	-	-	-	-	.04 (25)	2.53 (9)	64% (22)	12% (34)	1.07 (105)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)
UTAH Offense	12	49% (76)	38% (116)	33.6	130.4	3.9	7 (131)	(123)	2.73 (114)	66% (113)	12% (117)	0.88 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)
UTAH Defense	12	51% (92)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (15)	1.6 (74)	37% (4)	25% (8)	.09 (1)	8% (4)	2 (59)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)
UTAH Offense	12	51% (58)	35% (119)	16.6	29.8	199.4	6.7	12	20 (58)	17 (127)	.16 (106)	1.7 (23)	36% (127)	24% (127)	.2 (110)	7% (107)	2.2 (22)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17 Utah: 8.035

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4 Utah: 7.7

Utah's Power Ratings
Utah's Power Rating: 8.035 #48
Utah's Offense Rating: 10.54 #127
Utah's Defense Rating: 1.59 #8
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 22 #25
Utah's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Utah's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7 #40
Utah's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Utah's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #16

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 28
Utah 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah 35
Baylor 20

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 26
Utah 26

Total Points: 52

Utah Scoring
Offense: 23.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Utah's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Baylor	28	Utah	55	Utah -9.5	Utah	60.5	Over
2024	09/07	Utah	23	Baylor	12	Utah -14.5	Baylor	52.5	Under
2023	09/09	Baylor	13	Utah	20	Utah -7	NA	46.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah	3	1	1 Overs
Baylor	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#22) BAY at (#48) UTAH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	UTAH
Power RatePwr	#22	#48
SP+SP+	#38	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#77
OffenseOff	#26	#99
DefenseDef	#110	#51
Spec TeamsST	#2	#31
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#25

Baylor Notes(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great
(10/6) Lost 3 straight into BYE. Monitor for quit watch
Baylor Injury Report

Utah Notes(12/11) Signed QB Dampier (New Mexico '24)
(11/24) Fight w/ ISU, OG'd by 180+, pick 6, PR TD
(11/24) Only 9 1st D, 3-10 on 3rd, Rgame/Wilson bad
(11/18) Wilson better but 3 INTs, Pass D torched by Buffs
(11/13) Fr QB Rose out for season, only Wilson left
(11/10) TE Kuithe lost for season (inj vs BYU)
(10/31) QB Wilson split reps w/ So. Rose for being awful
(10/27) Off still awful, BAD L vs Houston, Run D mauled
(10/21) 3 bad L's, Avg'd 12 PPG. Def is great, Off is poor
(10/21) New OC Bajakian led awful NW Off, < 120 ypp
(10/20) OC Ludwig steps down, near last Off 2 yrs
(10/14) QB Rising out for season, could have 8th yr?
Utah Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UTAH Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#51
SuccessSuc	#23	#4
ExplosiveExp	#49	#104
PPAPPA	#29	#7
PowerPwr	#20	#8
SP+SP+	#25	#16
Pts POPPO	#30	#15
HavocHav	#17	#12

Baylor Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UTAH Def
Run GameRun	#37	#50
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#10
Run ExplRExp	#50	#105
PPAExp	#41	#25
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#9
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#3
TackleTak	-	#129

Baylor Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UTAH Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#44
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#74
PPAExp	#21	#15
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#84
F7 HavocF7	#9	#34
DB HavocDB	#55	#4

Utah on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UTAH Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#99	#110
SuccessSuc	#125	#38
ExplosiveExp	#55	#102
PPAPPA	#120	#74
PowerPwr	#127	#30
SP+SP+	#96	#63
Pts POPPO	#111	#77
HavocHav	#120	#83

Utah Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UTAH Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#123	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#13
Run ExplRExp	#111	#92
PPAExp	#123	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#90
TackleTak	-	#87

Utah Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UTAH Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#131	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#119	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#23	#99
PPAExp	#106	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#113
F7 HavocF7	#117	#84
DB HavocDB	#107	#80

Program Comparison
UTAH 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice-Eccles Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 92° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Utah -14.5 (52.5)
Utah won vs Baylor this year (23-12)

Previous Matchups
Utah beat Baylor last year (23-12)
Utah beat Baylor in 2023 (20-13)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)	23	43	54%	307	3	2	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Richard Reese	58	241	1	4.2	28
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)	45	567	5	12.6	35
Monaray Baldwin	27	478	5	17.7	46
Hal Presley	31	429	3	13.8	53

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Treven Ma'ae	40	7	4	3	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Garmon Randolph	33	5	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	13	1	0	0	10
Matt Jones	101	9	4	5	6
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4

UTAH's OC Mike Bajakian (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Isaac Wilson	127	225	56%	1510	10	11	6.7
Cameron Rising	34	66	52%	555	7	3	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Micah Bernard	197	1009	4	5.1	64
Mike Mitchell	47	158	1	3.4	18
Dijon Stanley	20	66	0	3.3	14
Brandon Rose	11	66	0	6.0	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dorian Singer (Tr)	53	702	1	13.2	40
Brant Kuithe	35	505	6	14.4	71
Money Parks	21	294	3	14.0	71
Dijon Stanley	7	166	2	23.7	79

View Utah's Full Roster

UTAH's DC Morgan Scalley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lander Barton	72	5	2	1	4
Tao Johnson	70	2	0	0	4
Karene Reid	54	6	3	1	1
Smith Snowden	48	4	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Van Fillinger	43	8	5	1	5
Karene Reid	54	6	3	1	1
Logan Fano	35	7	3	4	1
Connor O'Toole	22	5	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Calhoun (Tr)	21	1	0	0	9
Smith Snowden	48	4	0	0	8
Van Fillinger	43	8	5	1	5