Baylor at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -21 (58.5) (-1450)  Open: -17.5
Baylor 45 - Oklahoma State: 27  (Big 12)

 
Bears (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 36 - 30 (47 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
OKST 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -18.5  (SP+ BAY -18)

Projected Score: BAY: 39 - OKST: 21 (60)
BAY Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
BAY Travel: 316 miles
Cowboys (1 - 5) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Doug Meacham (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 37 (21 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1.4 - 10.6 (#134)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.066.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+7.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+10
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+0
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-7.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-10.554.5L 12 - 19UN
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+21.058.5L 27 - 45OY
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+21.556.5L 13 - 41UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+14.547.5L 17 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+21.557.5
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+41.5
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+14.5
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+17.5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+20

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#30 (.3)47% (37)36.344% (65)3.12 (49)14649% (25)3494.19 (59)#66 (.16)43% (91)29.745% (101)41% (70)4.34 (110)641.71
OKST#129 (.04)33% (134)16.535% (130)2.53 (123)12531% (131)1763.46 (109)#130 (.3)45% (107)36.741% (54)50% (130)4.05 (88)60.70.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense636.346.546.5%4.191.7264941463494.439%60%44%49%13%.3
OKST Defense636.727.544.9%4.051.2 - - - - - 51%48%41%50%16%.3
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense629.73643.2%4.341 - - - - - 55%44%45%41%15%.16
OKST Offense616.520.833%3.460.8153011251763.646%54%35%31%19%.04

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor628:302640%52%6.3641.714.51.2128.7
Oklahoma State627:3015.333%38%6.560.70.81.25.82125.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense639% (129)44% (65)32.8145.54.48 (87).17 (49)3.12 (49)72% (74)8% (26)1.02 (52)
OKST Defense651% (84)41% (54) - - - - .14 (95)2.9 (79)74% (83)10% (69)1.17 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense655% (112)45% (101) - - - - .11 (82)3.15 (113)90% (132)8% (109)0.87 (36)
OKST Offense646% (96)35% (130)35124.73.65 (115)-.03 (128)2.53 (123)71% (76)11% (107)0.92 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense660% (10)49% (25)27.242.5348.78.212.819 (3)4 (50).38 (34)1.5 (72)30% (50)39% (13).56 (17)5% (55)2 (72)
OKST Defense648% (52)50% (130) - - - - - - 3 (93).49 (132)1.7 (103)29% (113)31% (88).43 (119)6% (80)2 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense644% (24)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (46).25 (72)1.5 (46)30% (104)27% (39).25 (57)7% (47)1.8 (28)
OKST Offense654% (38)31% (131)16.730.7176.25.710.64 (125)4 (50).1 (120)1.6 (60)40% (136)21% (132).17 (109)8% (125)2.1 (43)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 15.07  #41
Baylor's Offense Rating: 21.98  #27
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.91  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #51
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5  #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #90

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 15.07   Oklahoma State: -8.21

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 5.9   Oklahoma State: -12.2




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -8.21  #108
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 4.05  #110
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 13.27  #97
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.4 - 10.6
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.2  #112
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #111
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #109

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 46.5
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 39
Oklahoma State 21


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 33
Oklahoma State 26

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 37
Oklahoma State 26

Total Points: 63
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 16.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.8
Defense: 36.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.5

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Oklahoma State27Baylor45Baylor -21Oklahoma State58.5Over
202410/26Baylor38Oklahoma State28Baylor -7.0Baylor64.5Over
202210/01Baylor25Oklahoma State36Baylor -2.5Oklahoma State56.0Over
202112/04Oklahoma State16Baylor21Oklahoma State -7Baylor45.0Under
202110/02Oklahoma State24Baylor14Oklahoma State -3.5Oklahoma State47.0Under
202012/12Baylor3Oklahoma State42Oklahoma State -6Oklahoma State49.5Under
201910/19Oklahoma State27Baylor45Oklahoma State -5.5Baylor68.5Over
201811/03Baylor35Oklahoma State31Oklahoma State -6Baylor68.0Under
201710/14Oklahoma State59Baylor16Oklahoma State -26Oklahoma State68.5Over
201609/24Baylor35Oklahoma State24Baylor -10Baylor73.5Under
201511/21Oklahoma State35Baylor45Baylor -3Baylor76.5Over
201411/22Baylor49Oklahoma State28Baylor -25Oklahoma State0
201311/23Oklahoma State49Baylor17Baylor -13Oklahoma State0
201212/01Baylor41Oklahoma State34
201110/29Oklahoma State59Baylor24
201011/06Oklahoma State55Baylor28
200910/24Baylor7Oklahoma State34
200810/18Oklahoma State34Baylor6
200711/17Baylor14Oklahoma State45
200611/11Oklahoma State66Baylor24
200511/19Baylor44Oklahoma State34
200411/13Oklahoma State49Baylor21
200311/22Baylor21Oklahoma State38
200111/17Baylor22Oklahoma State38
200011/17Oklahoma State50Baylor22
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State1576 Overs
Baylor1065 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 107 - 64 - 43 - 2
Road Teams10 - 156 - 72 - 34 - 4

(#41) BAY at (#108) OKST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYOKST
Power RatePwr #41 #108
SP+SP+ #51 #112
Perf GradeGrade #53 #129
OffenseOff #48 #134
DefenseDef #52 #97
Spec TeamsST #75 #88
TalentTal #24 #32
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #65

Baylor Notes
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner

Oklahoma State Notes
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
(7/30) 65 total new players, 35 added after spring
(5/23) Def added 18 portals, 9 DL, 3 LB, 6 DB. Improve?
(5/23) Need to see Off because it looks bad on paper
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffOKST Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #97
SuccessSuc #37 #107
ExplosiveExp #27 #126
PPAPPA #30 #130
PowerPwr #27 #97
SP+SP+ #22 #109
Pts POPPO #59 #88
HavocHav #36 #73
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #108 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #54
Run ExplRExp #52 #121
PPAExp #49 #95
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #79
Stuff RateStuff #46 #70
TackleTak -  #114
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #67 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #130
Pass ExplPExl #72 #103
PPAExp #34 #132
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #84 #67
F7 HavocF7 #26 #69
DB HavocDB #55 #80
Oklahoma State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatOKST OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #134 #52
SuccessSuc #134 #91
ExplosiveExp #64 #27
PPAPPA #129 #66
PowerPwr #110 #64
SP+SP+ #111 #90
Pts POPPO #109 #110
HavocHav #123 #101
Oklahoma State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKST OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #100 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #101
Run ExplRExp #92 #36
PPAExp #128 #82
Run BlockR Blk #116 -
OL YdsOLY #123 #113
Stuff RateStuff #91 #113
TackleTak -  #30
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatOKST OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #132 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #70
Pass ExplPExl #60 #46
PPAExp #120 #72
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #109
F7 HavocF7 #107 #109
DB HavocDB #125 #47
Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 90° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Baylor 21.0 (58.5)
Baylor won at Oklahoma State this year (45-27)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (38-28)
Oklahoma State beat Baylor in 2022 (36-25)

  
BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson15824864%20581948.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington10255755.541
Caden Knighten3716914.649
Michael Turner2612114.717
Joseph Dodds71902.75
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron32456314.348
Michael Trigg29439415.142
Kole Wilson (Tr)24324213.557
Ashtyn Hawkins24304012.736

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas513002
Devyn Bobby331001
Kyland Reed241010
Jacob Redding230002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)113200
Jackie Marshall115200
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Micah Gifford71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Jenkins81003
Keaton Thomas513002
Caldra Williford (Tr)91002

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores7714055%696035.0
Sam Jackson142752%161116.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Fields Jr.5525704.736
Kalib Hicks (Tr)3911703.014
Zane Flores3011413.827
Trenten Howland2710824.018
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman19203210.733
Rodney Fields Jr.16188111.863
Shamar Rigby (Tr)12171014.341
Terrill Davis (Tr)12149012.441

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Clint Bowen (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan McCoy (Tr)401011
Brandon Rawls402200
Parker Robertson353002
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)260001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)199341
Brandon Rawls402200
Malik Charles (Tr)162200
Poasa Utu62200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Smith120013
Kenneth Harris150013
Landyn Cleveland151002