Baylor at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -21 (58.5) (-1450) Open: -17.5
Baylor 45 - Oklahoma State: 27 (Big 12)

Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (33 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)

OKST 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -16 (SP+ BAY -16.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 37 - OKST: 21 (58)
BAY Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
BAY Travel: 316 miles

Cowboys (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (17 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BAY Players
OKST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Baylor vs Auburn	+1.5	57.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Baylor at SMU	+3.0	65.5	W 48 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Baylor vs Samford	-51.5	65.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/20	Baylor vs Arizona State	-3.0	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/27	Baylor at Oklahoma State	-21.0	58.5	W 45 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/4	Baylor vs Kansas State	-4.5	59.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Baylor at TCU	+3.5	66.5	L 36 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Baylor at Cincinnati	+3.5	68.5	L 20 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/1	Baylor vs UCF	-3.0	58.5	W 30 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Baylor vs Utah	+9.5	60.5	L 28 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/22	Baylor at Arizona	+6.5	61.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/29	Baylor vs Houston	-2.5	57.5	L 24 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Oklahoma State vs UT Martin	-26.0	56.5	W 27 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Oklahoma State at Oregon	+28.5	55.5	L 3 - 69	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19	Oklahoma State vs Tulsa	-10.5	54.5	L 12 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/27	Oklahoma State vs Baylor	+21.0	58.5	L 27 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Oklahoma State at Arizona	+21.5	56.5	L 13 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/11	Oklahoma State vs Houston	+14.5	47.5	L 17 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/18	Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati	+23.5	57.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/25	Oklahoma State at Texas Tech	+37.5	56.5	L 0 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/1	Oklahoma State at Kansas	+24.5	54.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Oklahoma State vs Kansas State	+19.5	50.5	L 6 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Oklahoma State at UCF	+13.5	47.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Oklahoma State vs Iowa State	+13.5	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	31.1	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	32.6	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
OKST	#52 (.21)	43% (63)	14.2	43% (86)	2.79 (107)	114	44% (47)	265	4.22 (42)	#131 (.34)	46% (109)	33.3	47% (107)	44% (108)	3.93 (82)	43.2	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	31.1	33.2	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25
OKST Defense	12	33.3	27.6	45.6%	3.93	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	44%	15%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	32.6	39.2	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18
OKST Offense	12	14.2	17	43.1%	4.22	1.8	20	379	114	265	3.9	42%	58%	43%	44%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5
Oklahoma State	12	27:03	20.4	35%	65%	5	43.2	1.8	1.3	5.5	2.1	1	27.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)
OKST Defense	12	50% (65)	47% (107)	-	-	-	-	.31 (133)	3.43 (126)	73% (68)	8% (112)	1.25 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)
OKST Offense	12	42% (117)	43% (86)	29.4	114.2	3.9	18 (78)	.04 (109)	2.79 (107)	74% (61)	7% (19)	0.87 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)
OKST Defense	12	50% (73)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.37 (123)	1.8 (124)	32% (56)	36% (119)	.46 (120)	6% (53)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)
OKST Offense	12	58% (17)	44% (47)	22.3	37.5	264.7	7.1	11.9	22 (46)	17 (127)	.34 (30)	1.6 (67)	31% (66)	31% (82)	.32 (77)	7% (109)	1.9 (99)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.66 #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52 #42
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.66 Oklahoma State: -8.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 1.4 Oklahoma State: -15.1

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -8.76 #88
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 7.49 #105
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.91 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.2
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.2

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 37
Oklahoma State 21

Projected Total Points: 58

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.6

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Baylor -21	Oklahoma State	58.5	Over
2024	10/26	Baylor	38	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor -7.0	Baylor	64.5	Over
2022	10/01	Baylor	25	Oklahoma State	36	Baylor -2.5	Oklahoma State	56.0	Over
2021	12/04	Oklahoma State	16	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State -7	Baylor	45.0	Under
2021	10/02	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State -3.5	Oklahoma State	47.0	Under
2020	12/12	Baylor	3	Oklahoma State	42	Oklahoma State -6	Oklahoma State	49.5	Under
2019	10/19	Oklahoma State	27	Baylor	45	Oklahoma State -5.5	Baylor	68.5	Over
2018	11/03	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	31	Oklahoma State -6	Baylor	68.0	Under
2017	10/14	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	16	Oklahoma State -26	Oklahoma State	68.5	Over
2016	09/24	Baylor	35	Oklahoma State	24	Baylor -10	Baylor	73.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oklahoma State	35	Baylor	45	Baylor -3	Baylor	76.5	Over
2014	11/22	Baylor	49	Oklahoma State	28	Baylor -25	Oklahoma State	0
2013	11/23	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	17	Baylor -13	Oklahoma State	0
2012	12/01	Baylor	41	Oklahoma State	34
2011	10/29	Oklahoma State	59	Baylor	24
2010	11/06	Oklahoma State	55	Baylor	28
2009	10/24	Baylor	7	Oklahoma State	34
2008	10/18	Oklahoma State	34	Baylor	6
2007	11/17	Baylor	14	Oklahoma State	45
2006	11/11	Oklahoma State	66	Baylor	24
2005	11/19	Baylor	44	Oklahoma State	34
2004	11/13	Oklahoma State	49	Baylor	21
2003	11/22	Baylor	21	Oklahoma State	38
2001	11/17	Baylor	22	Oklahoma State	38
2000	11/17	Oklahoma State	50	Baylor	22

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oklahoma State	15	7	6 Overs
Baylor	10	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#30) BAY at (#88) OKST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	OKST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#88
SP+SP+	#71	#121
Perf GradeGrade	#78	#131
OffenseOff	#61	#133
DefenseDef	#100	#118
Spec TeamsST	#5	#125
TalentTal	#24	#32
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#65

Baylor Notes(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report

Oklahoma State Notes(12/13) Hired DC Skyler Cassity from N Tex w/ Morris
(11/25) Hired N Tex HC Eric Morris, will join after season
(10/26) Starting OT Grant Seagren entered portal
(10/22) OL Noah McKinney left for the portal, starting OG
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
Oklahoma State Injury Report

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#118
SuccessSuc	#23	#109
ExplosiveExp	#49	#132
PPAPPA	#29	#131
PowerPwr	#20	#76
SP+SP+	#32	#100
Pts POPPO	#30	#82
HavocHav	#17	#89

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#92	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#107
Run ExplRExp	#50	#133
PPAExp	#41	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#119
TackleTak	-	#89

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#124
PPAExp	#21	#123
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#84	#111
F7 HavocF7	#9	#112
DB HavocDB	#55	#53

Oklahoma State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#100
SuccessSuc	#63	#38
ExplosiveExp	#69	#102
PPAPPA	#52	#74
PowerPwr	#105	#42
SP+SP+	#131	#110
Pts POPPO	#42	#77
HavocHav	#45	#83

Oklahoma State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#126	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#13
Run ExplRExp	#119	#92
PPAExp	#109	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#90
TackleTak	-	#38

Oklahoma State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	#47	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#99
PPAExp	#30	#80
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#124
F7 HavocF7	#19	#84
DB HavocDB	#109	#80

Program Comparison
OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 90° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Baylor 21.0 (58.5)
Baylor won at Oklahoma State this year (45-27)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (45-27)
Baylor beat Oklahoma State in 2024 (38-28)

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	304	503	60%	3681	31	12	7.3
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	154	788	6	5.1	41
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
Joseph Dodds	26	104	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	69	872	9	12.6	48
Michael Trigg	50	694	6	13.9	42
Ashtyn Hawkins	53	621	0	11.7	41
Kole Wilson (Tr)	44	591	5	13.4	64

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Devyn Bobby	77	2	0	0	2
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Jackie Marshall	30	6	2	0	0
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Travion Barnes (Tr)	11	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	7
DJ Coleman	41	4	3	4
Caldra Williford (Tr)	16	1	0	4

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zane Flores	155	262	59%	1454	3	7	5.5
Sam Jackson	35	66	53%	351	1	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodney Fields Jr.	124	614	1	5.0	41
Trenten Howland	63	243	3	3.9	24
Sesi Vailahi	42	152	2	3.6	14
Kalib Hicks (Tr)	44	128	0	2.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman	53	481	4	9.1	33
Terrill Davis (Tr)	29	373	0	12.9	41
Shamar Rigby (Tr)	25	351	1	14.0	48
Rodney Fields Jr.	28	276	1	9.9	63

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Robertson	77	9	1	1	5
Bryan McCoy (Tr)	71	2	0	4	1
Brandon Rawls	68	5	2	0	0
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)	39	2	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)	27	12	4	7	1
Malik Charles (Tr)	28	3	3	1	0
Taje Mccoy (Tr)	21	4	2	1	1
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.	24	2	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenneth Harris	33	2	1	1	5
Parker Robertson	77	9	1	1	5
Cam Smith	34	1	0	1	4