Baylor at Oklahoma State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Boone Pickens Stadium - Stillwater, OK  (Big 12)

 
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
OKST 2nd straight Home Game
BAY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Baylor -8.5   (SP+ BAY -6.5)
Projected Score: BAY: 36 - OKST: 27 (62)
BAY Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
BAY Travel: 316 miles
Cowboys (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 7.2 (#99)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)
 
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+2.556.5
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+6.5
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-33
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State+3
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-8.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+4.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati-2.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah-1.5
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-9
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-22
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+30.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-19
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+8.5
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+1.5
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston-0.5
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+3
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+16
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+14
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+2.5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)34.446% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)26.738% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)27.243% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)35.647% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
OKST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1334.43246.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25
OKST Defense1235.634.845.6%3.931.3 - - - - - 50%50%47%44%15%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1326.730.739.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
OKST Offense1227.230.843.1%4.221.8203791142653.942%58%43%44%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Oklahoma State1227:0320.435%65%543.21.81.35.52.1127.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)
OKST Defense1250% (65)47% (107) - - - - .31 (133)3.43 (126)73% (68)8% (112)1.25 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
OKST Offense1242% (117)43% (86)29.4114.23.918 (78).04 (109)2.79 (107)74% (61)7% (19)0.87 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)
OKST Defense1250% (73)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (39).37 (123)1.8 (124)32% (56)36% (119).46 (120)6% (53)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
OKST Offense1258% (17)44% (47)22.337.5264.77.111.922 (46)17 (127).34 (30)1.6 (67)31% (66)31% (82).32 (77)7% (109)1.9 (99)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 11.31 #32
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Baylor's Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #47
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 11.31   Oklahoma State: 1.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 7.5   Oklahoma State: 0.9




Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: 1.15 #76
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 13.89 #68
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 17.49 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #72
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #58
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 36
Oklahoma State 27

Projected Total Points: 62
Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.8
Defense: 35.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Baylor38Oklahoma State28BaylorBaylor -7.0Baylor64.5Over
202210/01Baylor25Oklahoma State36Oklahoma StateBaylor -2.5Oklahoma State56.0Over
202112/04Oklahoma State16Baylor21BaylorOklahoma State -7Baylor45.0Under
202110/02Oklahoma State24Baylor14Oklahoma StateOklahoma State -3.5Oklahoma State47.0Under
202012/12Baylor3Oklahoma State42Oklahoma StateOklahoma State -6Oklahoma State49.5Under
201910/19Oklahoma State27Baylor45BaylorOklahoma State -5.5Baylor68.5Over
201811/03Baylor35Oklahoma State31BaylorOklahoma State -6Baylor68.0Under
201710/14Oklahoma State59Baylor16Oklahoma StateOklahoma State -26Oklahoma State68.5Over
201609/24Baylor35Oklahoma State24BaylorBaylor -10Baylor73.5Under
201511/21Oklahoma State35Baylor45BaylorBaylor -3Baylor76.5Over
201411/22Baylor49Oklahoma State28BaylorBaylor -25Oklahoma State0
201311/23Oklahoma State49Baylor17Oklahoma StateBaylor -13Oklahoma State0
201212/01Baylor41Oklahoma State34Baylor
201110/29Oklahoma State59Baylor24Oklahoma State
201011/06Oklahoma State55Baylor28Oklahoma State
200910/24Baylor7Oklahoma State34Oklahoma State
200810/18Oklahoma State34Baylor6Oklahoma State
200711/17Baylor14Oklahoma State45Oklahoma State
200611/11Oklahoma State66Baylor24Oklahoma State
200511/19Baylor44Oklahoma State34Baylor
200411/13Oklahoma State49Baylor21Oklahoma State
200311/22Baylor21Oklahoma State38Oklahoma State
200111/17Baylor22Oklahoma State38Oklahoma State
200011/17Oklahoma State50Baylor22Oklahoma State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oklahoma State1565 Overs
Baylor965 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 96 - 64 - 42 - 2
Road Teams9 - 156 - 62 - 24 - 4

(#32) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.31 #32
Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58
Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #47
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Baylor Notes
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).
(3/21) OL 4/5 back. Best of B12? Most exp'd for sure
Baylor     Ratings Matchup     Oklahoma State
Power #32
#76
Off #19
#68
Def #46
#83
Talent #40
#42
SP+ #35
#58
SP+ Off #20
#39
SP+ Def #58
#84

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Oklahoma State last year (38-28)
Oklahoma State beat Baylor in 2022 (36-25)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Boone Pickens Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | OKST
Depth Chart: BAY | OKST
Rosters: BAY | OKST
(#76) Oklahoma State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.15 #76
Offense Rating: 13.89 #68
Defense Rating: 17.49 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #58
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #84
Talent Rating: 814.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #72
Expected Record: 4.8 - 7.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 43%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.22 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 46%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.93 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Oklahoma State Notes
(5/23) Def added 18 portals, 9 DL, 3 LB, 6 DB. Improve?
(5/23) Need to see Off because it looks bad on paper
(5/23) RB bad LY. Can Brock (Ga St)/Hicks (OU) help?
(5/23) WR rebuild. Took 5 portals. Some talent
(5/23) OL rebuild 0/5 back. 7 not so great portals
(5/11) OL exp ranked #60 & 94% of that is from portals
(3/22) QBs Hejny (TCU)? came w/ OC Meacham
(3/19) 3rd & Grantham comes to Stillwater
(3/19) Not sure Gundy survives this roster


  
Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Walker White (Tr)2540%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Walker White (Tr)41804.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Kole Wilson (Tr)43630414.753
Louis Brown38620316.344
Michael Trigg30395313.242

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Travion Barnes (Tr)12911340
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Devin Turner (Tr)512003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Fobbs-White (Tr)218401
Keaton Thomas978420
Travion Barnes (Tr)12911340
Jackie Marshall415250
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phoenix Jackson (Tr)455254
Caden Jenkins250004
Devin Turner (Tr)512003

Oklahoma State's OC Doug Meacham
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Shamar Rigby (Tr)11100%8008.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Freddie Brock (Tr)15181985.457
Trenten Howland4123015.623
Sesi Vailahi429922.411
Rodney Fields Jr.219914.722
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Lloyd (Tr)13255019.659
Talyn Shettron12245120.478
Oscar Hammond (Tr)19238112.538
Freddie Brock (Tr)2116617.931

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster
Oklahoma State's DC Todd Grantham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan McCoy (Tr)1203032
Darius Thomas (Tr)547430
Parker Robertson492001
Kyran Duhon (Tr)437702
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyran Duhon (Tr)437702
Darius Thomas (Tr)547430
Taje Mccoy (Tr)244420
Iman Oates253211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Smith341007
Kale Smith310005
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)422113