Texas State at Baylor - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Baylor -26.5 (58.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas State 42 - Baylor: 31

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 99.1° (22% Hum)
Our Line: Texas State -3 (SP+ TXST -5)
Projected Score: TXST: 32 - BAY: 29 (61)
BAY Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
TXST Travel: 125 miles

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TXST Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77	O	N
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	29	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
BAY	.22	45%	31.1	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	32.6	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	34.2	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
BAY Defense	13	32.6	27.9	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	29	32.8	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
BAY Offense	13	31.1	29.6	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 Baylor: -5.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 Baylor: -8.8

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -5.875 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 32
Baylor 29

Projected Total Points: 61

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 1 - 7
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Baylor	31	Texas State	42	Baylor -26.5	Texas State	58.5	Over
2022	09/17	Baylor	42	Texas State	7	Baylor -30	Baylor	53.0	Under
2021	09/04	Texas State	20	Baylor	29	Baylor -13.5	Texas State	52.5	Under
2007	09/15	Baylor	34	Texas State	27
2004	09/11	Baylor	24	Texas State	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	4	1	1 Overs
Texas State	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#77) TXST at (#108) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TXST	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#77	#108
SP+SP+	#79	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#100
OffenseOff	#48	#82
DefenseDef	#51	#123
Spec TeamsST	#53	#18
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#38

Texas State Injury Report

Baylor Injury Report

Texas State on Offense


CategoryCat	TXST Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#123
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#21	#127
SP+SP+	#47	#105
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas State Run Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#53	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Texas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	TXST Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TXST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#51
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#99	#91
SP+SP+	#78	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TXST Def
Run GameRun	#84	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#122

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	TXST Def
Pass GamePass	#82	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#12	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 99° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Baylor -26.5 (58.5)
Texas State won at Baylor this year (42-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Baylor in 2023 (42-31)

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
TJ Finley	279	414	67%	3439	24	8	8.3
Malik Hornsby	8	15	53%	83	0	1	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	223	1331	10	6.0	65
Donerio Davenport	91	461	2	5.1	43
Malik Hornsby	35	229	6	6.5	31
Jahmyl Jeter	41	173	9	4.2	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joey Hobert (Tr)	76	895	8	11.8	83
Ashtyn Hawkins	55	874	3	15.9	48
Kole Wilson (Tr)	66	747	8	11.3	77
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	20	275	1	13.8	89

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Holloway	105	16	2	8	0
Shawn Holton (Tr)	92	0	0	0	1
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	0	5
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ben Bell	57	16	10	6
Tavian Coleman (Tr)	28	8	4	1
Deven Wright (Tr)	19	4	3	2
Sam Latham (Tr)	15	6	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)	22	1	0	8
Kaleb Ford-Dement (Tr)	32	3	1	7
Kaleb Culp (Tr)	80	1	0	5

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	184	298	62%	2188	13	3	7.3
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	66	117	56%	864	2	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dominic Richardson (Tr)	125	519	1	4.2	32
Dawson Pendergrass	79	338	5	4.3	31
Richard Reese	66	306	2	4.6	28
Sawyer Robertson (Tr)	35	69	1	2.0	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Monaray Baldwin	38	623	4	16.4	71
Drake Dabney	33	552	5	16.7	63
Ketron Jackson (Tr)	28	489	1	17.5	55
Jake Roberts (Tr)	23	231	1	10.0	37

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Devin Lemear	40	1	0	0	3
Caden Jenkins	37	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Byron Vaughns (Tr)	30	8	3	0	1
TJ Franklin	30	8	3	3	1
Gabe Hall	18	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devyn Bobby	74	1	0	1	6
Matt Jones	84	13	4	1	5
Corey Gordon	31	1	0	0	4