Texas Tech at Baylor - 2026 Matchup Preview
Texas Tech logo Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX

 
Red Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (35 - 18)
Avg Score : 39 - 11 (37 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TTU 2nd straight Road Game
BAY is playing their 6th straight game
TTU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -22  (SP+ TTU -26)
Projected Score: TTU: 39 - BAY: 17 (55)
TTU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 52%
TTU Travel: 311 miles
Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (36 - 37)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas Tech's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-50
Sat 9/12 Texas Tech at Oregon State-39.5
Sat 9/19 Texas Tech vs Houston-22.5
Sat 9/26 Texas Tech vs Sam Houston-51.5
Sat 10/3 Texas Tech at Colorado-32
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Texas Tech vs Arizona State-25.5
Sat 10/24 Texas Tech at Cincinnati-20.5
Sat 10/31 Texas Tech vs Arizona-21
Sat 11/7 Texas Tech vs West Virginia-31.5
Sat 11/14 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-32.5
Sat 11/21 Texas Tech at Baylor-22
Sat 11/28 Texas Tech vs TCU-21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Baylor's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Baylor at Auburn+13
Sat 9/12 Baylor vs Prairie View A&M-25.5
Sat 9/19 Baylor vs Louisiana Tech-10.5
Sat 9/26 Baylor vs Colorado-12.5
Sat 10/3 Baylor at Arizona State+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Baylor vs TCU+3.5
Sat 10/24 Baylor at Kansas+2
Sat 10/31 Baylor at UCF-2
Sat 11/7 Baylor vs Iowa State-0.5
Sat 11/14 Baylor at BYU+16
Sat 11/21 Baylor vs Texas Tech+22
Sat 11/28 Baylor at Houston+7

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU#28 (.24)43% (61)39.443% (72)2.87 (80)18443% (51)2784 (41)#1 (-.09)30% (1)11.329% (1)31% (3)2.41 (2)55.71.32.3
BAY#49 (.2)45% (39)31.147% (38)3.09 (42)14244% (41)3103.69 (69)#81 (.18)44% (104)32.646% (107)43% (93)4.3 (124)61.420.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TTU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Offense1439.436.642.8%41.3234621842784.746%52%43%43%15%.24
BAY Defense1232.627.944.3%4.30.9 - - - - - 56%42%46%43%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TTU Defense1411.313.430.1%2.412.3 - - - - - 43%56%29%31%23%-.09
BAY Offense1231.129.645%3.692254511423104.240%59%47%44%15%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas Tech1430:1022.749%50%6.855.71.32.37.62.9236
Baylor1229:1524.838%53%661.420.941128.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Offense1446% (97)43% (72)39.11844.730 (26).17 (41)2.87 (80)80% (15)9% (59)1.09 (21)
BAY Defense1256% (129)46% (107) - - - - .14 (93)3.15 (111)89% (134)7% (131)0.96 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TTU Defense1443% (5)29% (1) - - - - -.16 (1)1.94 (1)56% (3)15% (4)0.86 (17)
BAY Offense1240% (129)47% (38)34.1141.64.212 (88).17 (44)3.09 (42)77% (32)8% (36)0.9 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Offense1452% (38)43% (51)22.734.7277.6812.233 (5)10 (88).35 (38)1.6 (53)34% (108)33% (40).4 (28)6% (86)2.2 (24)
BAY Defense1242% (9)43% (93) - - - - - - 9 (55).25 (71)1.4 (13)28% (122)29% (65).24 (51)6% (86)1.7 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TTU Defense1456% (132)31% (3) - - - - - - 17 (22)- (3)1.4 (9)39% (1)22% (2).06 (4)8% (10)1.8 (10)
BAY Offense1259% (8)44% (41)25.842.5309.67.31231 (3)12 (88).25 (67)1.5 (80)31% (58)33% (28).42 (27)6% (86)2.1 (35)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 25.85  #6
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 20.70  #14
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: -0.15  #4
2026 Talent Rating: 960.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 20%  #26
Texas Tech's 2026 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Texas Tech's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.6  #3
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #7
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3  #3

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 25.85   Baylor: 4.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 27.6   Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 4.62  #53
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.66  #47
Baylor's Defense Rating: 15.82  #60
2026 Talent Rating: 840.00  #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.6
Defense: 11.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.4

Texas Tech's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas Tech 39
Baylor 17

Projected Total Points: 55
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Texas Tech35Baylor59Texas Tech -4.5Baylor56.0Over
202310/07Baylor14Texas Tech39Texas Tech -2.5Texas Tech59.5Under
202210/29Texas Tech17Baylor45Texas Tech -1.5Baylor61.0Over
202111/27Baylor27Texas Tech24Baylor -14Texas Tech51.5Under
202011/14Texas Tech24Baylor23Texas Tech -1Push54.5Under
201910/12Baylor33Texas Tech30Baylor -10.5Texas Tech58.5Over
201811/24Texas Tech24Baylor35Texas Tech -6Baylor63.5Under
201711/11Baylor24Texas Tech38Texas Tech -9.5Texas Tech67.5Under
201611/25Texas Tech54Baylor35Baylor -2.5Texas Tech83.0Over
201510/03Baylor63Texas Tech35Baylor -15.5Baylor88.0Over
201411/29Texas Tech46Baylor48Baylor -21.5Texas Tech0
201311/16Baylor63Texas Tech34Baylor -27Baylor0
201211/24Texas Tech45Baylor52
201111/26Baylor66Texas Tech42
201010/09Texas Tech45Baylor38
200911/28Baylor13Texas Tech20
200811/29Texas Tech35Baylor28
200711/03Baylor7Texas Tech38
200611/04Texas Tech55Baylor21
200510/29Baylor0Texas Tech28
200411/06Texas Tech42Baylor17
200311/08Baylor14Texas Tech62
200211/02Texas Tech62Baylor11
200110/27Baylor19Texas Tech63
200010/06Texas Tech28Baylor0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor1055 Overs
Texas Tech1565 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 124 - 72 - 52 - 2
Road Teams12 - 137 - 42 - 25 - 2

(#6) TTU at (#53) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTTUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #53
SP+SP+ #3 #71
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #19 #37
Blue ChipsBC% #26 #49
Texas Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #61 #104
ExplosiveExp #21 #15
PPAPPA #28 #81
PowerPwr #14 #60
SP+SP+ #7 #110
Pts POPPO #41 #124
HavocHav #61 #126
Texas Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffBAY Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #107
Run ExplRExp #21 #68
PPAExp #41 #93
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #80 #111
Stuff RateStuff #59 #123
TackleTak - NR
Texas Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TTU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #51 #93
Pass ExplPExl #53 #13
PPAExp #38 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #131
DB HavocDB #86 #86
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffTTU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #39 #1
ExplosiveExp #53 #19
PPAPPA #49 #1
PowerPwr #47 #4
SP+SP+ #32 #3
Pts POPPO #69 #2
HavocHav #56 #1
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffTTU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #1
Run ExplRExp #99 #17
PPAExp #44 #1
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #42 #1
Stuff RateStuff #27 #13
TackleTak - NR
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffTTU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #41 #3
Pass ExplPExl #80 #9
PPAExp #67 #3
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #36 #4
DB HavocDB #86 #10
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

TTU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Texas Tech in 2024 (59-35)
Texas Tech beat Baylor in 2023 (39-14)

  
TTU's OC Mack Leftwich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)20633562%27862658.3
Will Hammond6810863%668736.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Dickey2111138145.471
J'Koby Williams15486665.650
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)10058095.841
Will Hammond4329957.064
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Jones (Tr)471119923.887
Kenny Johnson (Tr)47658514.042
Coy Eakin49653613.342
Terrance Carter55624511.350

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Shiel Wood (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Roberts884035
John Curry734124
Austin Romaine (Tr)667172
Brenden Jordan592001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adam Trick (Tr)57128124
Trey White (Tr)47117121
Jamond Mathis (Tr)288663
Anthony Holmes Jr.4010574
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Roberts884035
Brice Pollock474015
Amier Boyd-Matthews262005

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway (Tr)21333763%226416146.7
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
D.J. Lagway (Tr)7113611.938
Drelon Miller4613412.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Freeman (Tr)5348149.133
Drelon Miller2115917.632
Caden Knighten11134112.239
Tony Livingston (Tr)11119210.838

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Joe Klanderman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kedrick Walker (Tr)577310
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
Daniel Cobbs (Tr)393002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Garrick Ponder (Tr)3712540
Ryan Davis (Tr)146414
Kedrick Walker (Tr)577310
Jamaal Whyce295310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
Ryan Davis (Tr)146414
Reggie Bush110002