Baylor at Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview
Baylor logo Baylor Bears at Houston Cougars(#22)Houston logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Baylor -7 (51.0) (-265)  Open: -6.5
Baylor 20 - Houston: 10  (Big 12)

 
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
BAY 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Baylor -15  (SP+ BAY -16.5)

Projected Score: BAY: 34 - HOU: 19 (53)
BAY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 165 miles
Cougars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 23 (15 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23UY
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3UY
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35OY
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17UY
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Houston vs UNLV-3.056.0L 7 - 27UN
Sat 9/7 Houston at Oklahoma+27.548.5L 12 - 16UY
Sat 9/14 Houston vs Rice-3.543.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 9/21 Houston at Cincinnati+4.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/28 Houston vs Iowa State+16.043.0L 0 - 20UN
Fri 10/4 Houston at TCU+16.552.0W 30 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Houston vs Kansas+4.545.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 10/26 Houston vs Utah+4.536.0W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/2 Houston vs Kansas State+12.546.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15 Houston at Arizona+1.046.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 11/23 Houston vs Baylor+7.051.0L 10 - 20UN
Sat 11/30 Houston at BYU+9.539.5L 18 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 8, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)34.446% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)26.738% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)1435% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.940% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Offense1334.43246.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25
HOU Defense1222.917.839.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BAY Defense1326.730.739.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
HOU Offense121415.235.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.17  #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51  #30
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2  #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 12.17   Houston: -4.585

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 8.4   Houston: -8.2




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -4.585  #86
Houston's Offense Rating: 9.85  #129
Houston's Defense Rating: 8.04  #55
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #62
Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2  #101
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #118
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 34
Houston 19


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 35
Houston 26

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Baylor 27
Houston 22

Total Points: 49
Houston Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense at Home: 15.2
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.8

Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Houston10Baylor20Baylor -7Baylor51.0Under
202311/04Baylor24Houston25Baylor -3Houston58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston110 Overs
Baylor112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#22) BAY at (#86) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBAYHOU
Power RatePwr #22 #86
SP+SP+ #38 #101
Perf GradeGrade #51 #125
OffenseOff #26 #128
DefenseDef #110 #99
Spec TeamsST #2 #109
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #53 #62

Baylor Notes
(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl
(10/28) 2 big W's (T.T./Ok St) Rgame really improved
(10/28) Young roster improving, building things?
(10/19) No quit. 500+ yds on T. T., QB good, Rgame great

Houston Notes
(12/27) Signed QB Weigman (A&M) & more
(12/14) Hired DC A. Armstrong (UF DC 23-24)
(12/5) Fired OC Kevin Barbay
(12/5) Hired OC Slade Nagle, ST/TE coach @ LSU
(11/25) 4 TOs, 3-10 on 3rd, 239 total yards in bad Bay L
(11/25) Def played great vs Bay, forced 3 INTs, Off sucks
(11/18) Regress vs Zona, Off abysmal, 3 TOs, Def OK
(11/2) Huge W over K St. Chris 11-11, Run D great
(10/27) 13 Passes, 230 ryds (4.7 ypc) in Utah upset. Big W
(10/18) QB Criss replacing Smith (should be an upgrade)
(9/22) Off abysmal. Can't run/pass. Def can't overcome
Baylor on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BAY OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerf #26 #99
SuccessSuc #23 #41
ExplosiveExp #49 #94
PPAPPA #29 #51
PowerPwr #20 #55
SP+SP+ #25 #54
Pts POPPO #30 #41
HavocHav #17 #46
Baylor Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BAY OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #37 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #41
Run ExplRExp #50 #75
PPAExp #41 #34
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #35
Stuff RateStuff #13 #38
TackleTak -  #73
Baylor Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BAY OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #71 #94
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #49
Pass ExplPExl #49 #95
PPAExp #21 #68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #52 #132
F7 HavocF7 #9 #27
DB HavocDB #55 #71
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatHOU OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #128 #110
SuccessSuc #129 #38
ExplosiveExp #109 #102
PPAPPA #133 #74
PowerPwr #129 #30
SP+SP+ #118 #63
Pts POPPO #134 #77
HavocHav #130 #83
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #133 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #13
Run ExplRExp #49 #92
PPAExp #122 #64
Run BlockR Blk #101 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #74
Stuff RateStuff #116 #90
TackleTak -  #87
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatHOU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #128 #120
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #78
Pass ExplPExl #122 #99
PPAExp #131 #80
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #113
F7 HavocF7 #132 #84
DB HavocDB #45 #80
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BAY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Baylor 7.0 (51.0)
Baylor won at Houston this year (20-10)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Houston last year (20-10)
Houston beat Baylor in 2023 (25-24)

  
BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Dequan Finn (Tr)234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Richard Reese5824114.228
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Ashtyn Hawkins (Tr)45567512.635
Monaray Baldwin27478517.746
Hal Presley31429313.853

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Jackie Marshall415250
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Treven Ma'ae407431
Keaton Thomas978420
Garmon Randolph335420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lorando Johnson (Tr)1310010
Matt Jones1019456
Caden Jenkins250004

HOU's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Donovan Smith8713365%867486.5
Zeon Chriss (Tr)8313064%824486.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Re'Shaun Sanford II9444414.738
Zeon Chriss (Tr)11338143.471
Stacy Sneed6030815.165
J'Marion Burnette4318204.254
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.32402212.644
Joseph Manjack22351316.057
Mekhi Mews (Tr)2925318.757
Maliq Carr (Tr)1918619.823

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Batton (Tr)948330
A.J. Haulcy740007
Jamal Morris635100
Kentrell Webb (Tr)541003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Cooper Jr.469472
Michael Batton (Tr)948330
Brandon Mack395320
Anthony Holmes Jr.359350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Haulcy740007
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)244004
Ajani Carter221103