Baylor at Air Force - 2022 Matchup Preview

Thursday, December 22nd 2022 (7:30 PM EST)
Baylor -3.5 (42.0) (210) Open: -6.5 | 47.0
Air Force 30 - Baylor: 15 (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

Bears (6 - 7) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (14 - 9)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (34 - 31 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 12.4°
Wind: 20.8 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -4 (SP+ BAY -8)
Projected Score: BAY: 22 - AFA: 28 (50)
BAY Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
BAY Travel: 81 miles

Falcons (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (111 - 75)
Avg Score : 28 - 13 (32 - 13 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
BAY Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Baylor vs UAlbany	-42.5	46.5	W 69 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Baylor at BYU	+2.5	54.5	L 20 - 26	U	N
Sat 9/17	Baylor vs Texas State	-30.0	53.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Baylor at Iowa State	+2.5	45.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	-2.5	56.0	L 25 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/13	Baylor at West Virginia	-3.0	55.0	L 40 - 43	O	N
Sat 10/22	Baylor vs Kansas	-10.5	56.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Baylor at Texas Tech	+1.5	61.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Baylor at Oklahoma	+3.0	61.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Baylor vs Kansas State	-2.5	52.0	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/19	Baylor vs TCU	+2.0	58.0	L 28 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/25	Baylor at Texas	+10.0	55.0	L 27 - 38	O	N
Thu 12/22	Baylor vs Air Force	-3.5	42.0	L 15 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Air Force's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Northern Iowa	-14.5	46.5	W 48 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Colorado	-17.5	50.0	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/16	Air Force at Wyoming	-16.5	47.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Fri 9/23	Air Force vs Nevada	-24.0	47.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-14.0	38.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Utah State	-11.5	54.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force at UNLV	-10.0	50.0	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Boise State	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 19	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Air Force vs Army	-7.0	40.5	W 13 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs New Mexico	-21.0	37.5	W 35 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	-22.0	43.0	W 24 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/26	Air Force at San Diego State	-2.0	43.5	W 13 - 3	U	Y
Thu 12/22	Air Force vs Baylor	+3.5	42.0	W 30 - 15	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	.22	45%	32.2	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	26.8	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5
AFA	.3	49%	27.8	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	13.4	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	32.2	33.5	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22
AFA Defense	13	13.4	13	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	26.8	30.5	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2
AFA Offense	13	27.8	31.9	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: NR
Baylor's Offense Rating: NR
Baylor's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Baylor's 2022 Expected Record: -
Baylor's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #30
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: Air Force: 1.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: 11.7 Air Force: 3.9

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 1.95 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #149
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2022 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #115
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #10

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.5

Baylor's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 28
Baylor 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 27
Baylor 20

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 29
Baylor 23

Total Points: 52

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.9
Defense: 13.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Air Force's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Baylor	31	Air Force	3	Baylor -17.5	Baylor	40.5	Under
2022	12/22	Air Force	30	Baylor	15	Baylor -3.5	Air Force	42.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	1	1	1 Overs
Baylor	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

Baylor Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Forces Bowl	Baylor vs Air Force	-3.5	42.0	L 15 - 30
2021	Sugar Bowl	Baylor vs Ole Miss	+1.0	60.5	W 21 - 7
2019	Sugar Bowl	Baylor vs Georgia	+4.0	44.0	L 14 - 26
2018	Texas Bowl	Baylor vs Vanderbilt	+4.0	56.5	W 45 - 38
2016	Cactus Bowl	Baylor vs Boise State	+10.0	71.0	W 31 - 12

Air Force Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs Baylor	+3.5	42.0	W 30 - 15
2021	Responder Bowl	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28
2019	It Bowl	Air Force vs Washington State	-3.0	73.0	W 31 - 21
2016	N/A	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21

(#) BAY at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BAY	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#30	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#27	#5
OffenseOff	#25	#4
DefenseDef	#42	#29
Spec TeamsST	#65	#20
TalentTal	#41	#149
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Baylor Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Baylor on Offense


CategoryCat	BAY Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#29
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Baylor Run Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#68	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Baylor Pass Game


CategoryCat	BAY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#13	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BAY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#42
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#115	#62
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#10	#64
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#56

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#47
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'22 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 12° - Wind: 21 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Baylor 3.5 (42.0)
Air Force won vs Baylor this year (30-15)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Air Force last year (31-3)
Air Force beat Baylor in 2022 (30-15)

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Ron Roberts (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD