Houston at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (5 - 1) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 18 (34 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#46)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Baylor -7.5  (SP+ HOU -1.5)
Projected Score: HOU: 24 - BAY: 31 (55)
BAY Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
HOU Travel: 165 miles
Bears (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 36 - 30 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#69)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.545.5
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-10
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+7.5
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+7.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.066.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+7.5
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+10
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+0
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#114 (.09)36% (127)29.235% (129)2.44 (127)16037% (117)2193.62 (96)#26 (.07)36% (21)17.542% (77)31% (9)4.09 (92)51.20.71.3
BAY#30 (.3)47% (37)36.344% (65)3.12 (49)14649% (25)3494.19 (59)#66 (.16)43% (91)29.745% (101)41% (70)4.34 (110)641.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)35% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)40% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense629.233.736.1%3.620.718380160219457%43%35%37%14%.09
BAY Defense629.726.543.2%4.341 - - - - - 55%44%45%41%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense617.516.736.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 53%46%42%31%17%.07
BAY Offense636.331.346.5%4.191.7264941463494.439%60%44%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston630:1918.239%50%5.851.20.71.34.52.2132.6
Baylor628:302640%52%6.3641.714.51.2128.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense657% (28)35% (129)39.8160.349 (77)-.09 (133)2.44 (127)63% (114)8% (43)0.9 (98)
BAY Defense655% (112)45% (101) - - - - .11 (82)3.15 (113)90% (132)8% (109)0.87 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense653% (98)42% (77) - - - - .03 (34)2.38 (14)90% (133)10% (76)0.81 (16)
BAY Offense639% (129)44% (65)32.8145.54.48 (87).17 (49)3.12 (49)72% (74)8% (26)1.02 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense643% (109)37% (117)16.728219.27.813.29 (73)3 (26).33 (45)1.9 (6)33% (103)25% (110).23 (102)6% (83)2.2 (36)
BAY Defense644% (24)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (46).25 (72)1.5 (46)30% (104)27% (39).25 (57)7% (47)1.8 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense646% (33)31% (9) - - - - - - 6 (29).14 (35)1.5 (43)33% (49)19% (6).13 (25)7% (40)1.9 (61)
BAY Offense660% (10)49% (25)27.242.5348.78.212.819 (3)4 (50).38 (34)1.5 (72)30% (50)39% (13).56 (17)5% (55)2 (72)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.24  #65
Houston's Offense Rating: 4.32  #108
Houston's Defense Rating: 1.08  #33
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5  #45
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #71
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.24   Baylor: 12.985

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.5   Baylor: 5.9




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 12.985  #41
Baylor's Offense Rating: 21.98  #27
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.91  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #51
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5  #22
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #90

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.7
Defense: 17.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 31
Houston 24


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 29
Houston 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Houston 30
Baylor 26

Total Points: 56
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.5

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Houston10Baylor20Baylor -7Baylor51.0Under
202311/04Baylor24Houston25Baylor -3Houston58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor110 Overs
Houston112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#65) HOU at (#41) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHOUBAY
Power RatePwr #65 #41
SP+SP+ #45 #51
Perf GradeGrade #56 #53
OffenseOff #115 #48
DefenseDef #13 #52
Spec TeamsST #5 #75
TalentTal #58 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #49

Houston Notes
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key

Baylor Notes
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #52
SuccessSuc #127 #91
ExplosiveExp #21 #27
PPAPPA #114 #66
PowerPwr #108 #64
SP+SP+ #71 #90
Pts POPPO #96 #110
HavocHav #55 #101
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #97 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #101
Run ExplRExp #98 #36
PPAExp #133 #82
Run BlockR Blk #64 -
OL YdsOLY #127 #113
Stuff RateStuff #111 #113
TackleTak -  #30
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #115 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #117 #70
Pass ExplPExl #6 #46
PPAExp #45 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #134 #109
F7 HavocF7 #43 #109
DB HavocDB #83 #47
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatBAY OffHOU Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #13
SuccessSuc #37 #21
ExplosiveExp #27 #7
PPAPPA #30 #26
PowerPwr #27 #33
SP+SP+ #22 #25
Pts POPPO #59 #92
HavocHav #36 #56
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
BAY OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #108 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #77
Run ExplRExp #52 #16
PPAExp #49 #34
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #49 #14
Stuff RateStuff #46 #80
TackleTak -  #41
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatBAY OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #67 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #9
Pass ExplPExl #72 #43
PPAExp #34 #35
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #104
F7 HavocF7 #26 #76
DB HavocDB #55 #40
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Houston last year (20-10)
Houston beat Baylor in 2023 (25-24)

  
HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)9114862%1216828.2
Zeon Chriss92045%99115.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)9543844.654
Conner Weigman (Tr)5114852.949
Stacy Sneed3313003.916
Zeon Chriss127906.621
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)23441219.264
Tanner Koziol (Tr)30310210.350
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)137515.816

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner423221
Carlos Allen413002
Kentrell Webb302000
Sione Fotu (Tr)301100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Platt Jr.213310
Jalen Garner423221
Brandon Mack183210
Eddie Walls III (Tr)235233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)100006
Eddie Walls III (Tr)235233
Marc Stampley II (Tr)212102

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson15824864%20581948.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington10255755.541
Caden Knighten3716914.649
Michael Turner2612114.717
Joseph Dodds71902.75
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron32456314.348
Michael Trigg29439415.142
Kole Wilson (Tr)24324213.557
Ashtyn Hawkins24304012.736

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas513002
Devyn Bobby331001
Kyland Reed241010
Jacob Redding230002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)113200
Jackie Marshall115200
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Micah Gifford71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Jenkins81003
Keaton Thomas513002
Caldra Williford (Tr)91002