Houston at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Baylor -2.5 (57.5) (-135)  Open: -2.5 | 60.5
Houston 31 - Baylor: 24  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 14.1 MPH
Our Line: Baylor -4  (SP+ HOU -6)

Projected Score: HOU: 26 - BAY: 30 (57)
BAY Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
HOU Travel: 165 miles
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Houston vs Stephen F. Austin-24.554.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Houston at Rice-13.538.5W 35 - 9OY
Fri 9/12 Houston vs Colorado-4.045.5W 36 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/26 Houston at Oregon State-11.548.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/4 Houston vs Texas Tech+13.551.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 10/11 Houston at Oklahoma State-14.547.5W 39 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Houston vs Arizona+1.547.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 10/25 Houston at Arizona State+7.046.5W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/1 Houston vs West Virginia-13.548.5L 35 - 45ON
Fri 11/7 Houston at UCF+1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Houston vs TCU+1.555.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Houston at Baylor+2.557.5W 31 - 24UY
Sat 12/27 Houston vs LSU-1.543.5W 38 - 35OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#133 (-)35% (129)29.135% (130)2.52 (129)13737% (115)1532.57 (134)#51 (.14)40% (41)22.840% (41)39% (49)3.52 (41)51.92.31.6
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)31.146% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)32.638% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense1229.13135.3%2.572.3152891371533.957%42%35%37%21%-
BAY Defense1332.627.939.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense1222.819.539.6%3.521.6 - - - - - 51%49%40%39%18%.14
BAY Offense1331.129.646.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston1230:1015.128%38%5.551.92.31.65.61.8227.7
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense1257% (22)35% (130)35.5136.63.99 (125) (122)2.52 (129)64% (119)16% (132)1.01 (49)
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense1251% (76)40% (41) - - - - .06 (34)2.8 (35)69% (41)12% (27)1 (75)
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense1242% (114)37% (115)15.223.3152.76.510.19 (128)17 (127).02 (131)1.4 (122)35% (120)20% (133)-.04 (134)5% (45)1.7 (130)
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense1249% (62)39% (49) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (68)1.7 (95)33% (54)32% (96).32 (79)6% (71)2 (55)
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 3.88  #53
Houston's Offense Rating: 14.84  #57
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.96  #51
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 3.88   Baylor: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 7.4   Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.53  #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 30
Houston 26


Projected Total Points: 57
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Baylor24Houston31Baylor -2.5Houston57.5Under
202411/23Houston10Baylor20Baylor -7Baylor51.0Under
202311/04Baylor24Houston25Baylor -3Houston58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor110 Overs
Houston223 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 30 - 30 - 20 - 1
Road Teams3 - 03 - 01 - 02 - 0

(#53) HOU at (#30) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHOUBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #53 #30
SP+SP+ #40 #71
Perf GradeGrade #46 #78
OffenseOff #73 #61
DefenseDef #21 #100
Spec TeamsST #83 #5
TalentTal #58 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #49
Houston Notes
(11/29) Beat Baylor to finish 9-3. Incredible year 2 for Fritz
(10/26) Another huge W vs ASU, Off good, Def better
(10/18) Big W vs Zona, Run Off beter, Def held on. Bowl team
(10/18) If this Off improves, Def is nasty, could make noise
(10/7) QB Weigman left T Tech w/ concussion, ? for Pokes
(10/1) Lotta guys went down vs Oregon State, watch
(9/30) Off Success #'s lowest in P4, Run & Pass bottom 10
(9/13) Def great vs CU, Weigman can throw now?
(9/13) Determined to run but bad success, pop expl
(6/14) QB, RB, WR, TE + 3 OL upgrades via portals
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
Houston Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #73 #100
SuccessSuc #129 #38
ExplosiveExp #109 #102
PPAPPA #133 #74
PowerPwr #57 #42
SP+SP+ #44 #110
Pts POPPO #134 #77
HavocHav #130 #83
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #50 #115
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #13
Run ExplRExp #49 #92
PPAExp #122 #64
Run BlockR Blk #74 -
OL YdsOLY #129 #74
Stuff RateStuff #116 #90
TackleTak -  #38
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #104 #45
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #78
Pass ExplPExl #122 #99
PPAExp #131 #80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #125 #124
F7 HavocF7 #132 #84
DB HavocDB #45 #80
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffHOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #21
SuccessSuc #23 #41
ExplosiveExp #49 #94
PPAPPA #29 #51
PowerPwr #20 #51
SP+SP+ #32 #46
Pts POPPO #30 #41
HavocHav #17 #46
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #92 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #41
Run ExplRExp #50 #75
PPAExp #41 #34
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #35
Stuff RateStuff #13 #38
TackleTak -  #18
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #71 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #49
Pass ExplPExl #49 #95
PPAExp #21 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #116
F7 HavocF7 #9 #27
DB HavocDB #55 #71
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 67° - Wind: 14 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Baylor -2.5 (57.5)
Houston won at Baylor this year (31-24)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat Baylor last year (31-24)
Baylor beat Houston in 2024 (20-10)
Houston beat Baylor in 2023 (25-24)

  
HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman (Tr)23235665%27052597.6
Zeon Chriss102148%108115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dean Connors (Tr)20097764.954
Conner Weigman (Tr)170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Stacy Sneed3713003.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas (Tr)679661214.464
Tanner Koziol (Tr)7472769.850
Stephon Johnson Jr.13275221.274
Dean Connors (Tr)3425437.533

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Garner764242
Carlos Allen728203
Kentrell Webb713004
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)6412795
Brandon Mack326510
Corey Platt Jr.415322
Wrook Brown (Tr)496302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Latrell McCutchin523108
Zelmar Vedder (Tr)190007
Will James (Tr)394005

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004