Houston at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
McLane Stadium - Waco, TX (Big 12)

Cougars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 14 - 23 (13 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)

Our Line: Baylor -11 (SP+ BAY -7)
Projected Score: HOU: 19 - BAY: 30 (49)
BAY Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
HOU Travel: 165 miles

Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Houston vs Stephen F. Austin	-24
Sat 9/6	Houston at Rice	-15
Sat 9/13	Houston vs Colorado	+1
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Houston at Oregon State	-1.5
Sat 10/4	Houston vs Texas Tech	+9
Sat 10/11	Houston at Oklahoma State	+0.5
Sat 10/18	Houston vs Arizona	-5.5
Sat 10/25	Houston at Arizona State	+16.5
Sat 11/1	Houston vs West Virginia	-4
Sat 11/8	Houston at UCF	+0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Houston vs TCU	+8
Sat 11/29	Houston at Baylor	+11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Baylor's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Baylor vs Auburn	+2.5	56.5
Sat 9/6	Baylor at SMU	+6.5
Sat 9/13	Baylor vs Samford	-33
Sat 9/20	Baylor vs Arizona State	+3
Sat 9/27	Baylor at Oklahoma State	-8.5
Sat 10/4	Baylor vs Kansas State	+3
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Baylor at TCU	+4.5
Sat 10/25	Baylor at Cincinnati	-2.5
Sat 11/1	Baylor vs UCF	-13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Baylor vs Utah	-1.5
Sat 11/22	Baylor at Arizona	-9
Sat 11/29	Baylor vs Houston	-11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)	14	35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)	22.9	40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	34.4	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	26.7	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	12	14	12.6	35.3%	2.57	2.3	15	289	137	153	3.9	57%	42%	35%	37%	21%	-
BAY Defense	13	26.7	19.8	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	12	22.9	25.2	39.6%	3.52	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	39%	18%	.14
BAY Offense	13	34.4	37.3	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	12	30:10	15.1	28%	38%	5.5	51.9	2.3	1.6	5.6	1.8	2	27.7
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	12	57% (22)	35% (130)	35.5	136.6	3.9	9 (125)	(122)	2.52 (129)	64% (119)	16% (132)	1.01 (49)
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	12	51% (76)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.06 (34)	2.8 (35)	69% (41)	12% (27)	1 (75)
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	12	42% (114)	37% (115)	15.2	23.3	152.7	6.5	10.1	9 (128)	17 (127)	.02 (131)	1.4 (122)	35% (120)	20% (133)	-.04 (134)	5% (45)	1.7 (130)
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	12	49% (62)	39% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (68)	1.7 (95)	33% (54)	32% (96)	.32 (79)	6% (71)	2 (55)
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 0.52 #65
Houston's Offense Rating: 10.75 #89
Houston's Defense Rating: 10.23 #38
2025 Talent Rating: 748.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #58
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: 0.52 Baylor: 11.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: 0.9 Baylor: 7.5

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 11.905 #32
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Baylor's Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #47
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 767.63
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Houston Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 30
Houston 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Houston	10	Baylor	20	Baylor	Baylor -7	Baylor	51.0	Under
2023	11/04	Baylor	24	Houston	25	Houston	Baylor -3	Houston	58.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	1	1	0 Overs
Houston	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#65) Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.52 #65
Offense Rating: 10.75 #89
Defense Rating: 10.23 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #58
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #36
Talent Rating: 748.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.57 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 3.52 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Houston Notes
(6/14) RB Connors pot. big add, workhorse w/ hands
(6/14) OL added 3 starters & depth, much better TY
(5/23) New OC Nagle great w/ Fritz @ Tulane
(5/23) New DC Armstrong downgrade from Shiel Wood
(5/15) DE/Pass Rush looks like a big ? Walls (FIU) key
(5/13) TE Koziol (Ball St) huge add, @ Wisc in spring
(4/4) CB Jeremiah Wilson a top 10 CB via PFF
(3/21) QB Weigman is talented. Could be great fit
(3/21) RB bad LY. Connors (Rice) good add. Some depth
(3/21) WR bad LY. Broussard/Thomas portals help

Houston Ratings Matchup Baylor

Power #65

#32

Off #89

#19

Def #38

#46

Talent #60

#40

SP+ #58

#35

SP+ Off #91

#20

SP+ Def #36

#58

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Houston last year (20-10)
Houston beat Baylor in 2023 (25-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: HOU | BAY
Depth Chart: HOU | BAY
Rosters: HOU | BAY

(#32) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.905 #32
Offense Rating: 22.45 #19
Defense Rating: 11.14 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #58
Talent Rating: 816.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #47
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.85 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Baylor Notes
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).
(3/21) OL 4/5 back. Best of B12? Most exp'd for sure

Houston's OC Slade Nagle

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zeon Chriss	83	130	64%	824	4	8	6.3
Conner Weigman (Tr)	64	114	56%	819	3	5	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors (Tr)	159	780	9	4.9	71
Re'Shaun Sanford II	94	444	1	4.7	38
Zeon Chriss	113	381	4	3.4	71
Stacy Sneed	60	308	1	5.1	65

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tanner Koziol (Tr)	94	839	8	8.9	33
Amare Thomas (Tr)	62	670	8	10.8	73
Harvey Broussard (Tr)	31	486	3	15.7	50
Dean Connors (Tr)	61	472	2	7.7	69

View Houston's Full Roster

Houston's DC Austin Armstrong

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carmycah Glass (Tr)	75	4	1	3	0
Blake Thompson (Tr)	60	3	0	0	3
Kentrell Webb	54	1	0	0	3
Wrook Brown (Tr)	48	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Walls III (Tr)	30	6	5	3	1
Khalil Laufau (Tr)	15	4	3	0	1
Joshua Donald (Tr)	31	6	3	1	0
Brandon Mack	39	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Keany Parks (Tr)	41	1	0	7
Marc Stampley II (Tr)	42	2	2	7
Will James (Tr)	35	2	0	7

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	229	368	62%	3071	28	8	8.3
Walker White (Tr)	2	5	40%	18	0	0	3.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	175	1028	12	5.9	51
Dawson Pendergrass	121	671	6	5.5	55
Sawyer Robertson	63	230	4	3.7	45
Walker White (Tr)	4	18	0	4.5	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	52	754	10	14.5	47
Kole Wilson (Tr)	43	630	4	14.7	53
Louis Brown	38	620	3	16.3	44
Michael Trigg	30	395	3	13.2	42

View Baylor's Full Roster

Baylor's DC Matt Powledge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Travion Barnes (Tr)	129	11	3	4	0
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Devyn Bobby	75	3	0	0	2
Devin Turner (Tr)	51	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Fobbs-White (Tr)	21	8	4	0	1
Keaton Thomas	97	8	4	2	0
Travion Barnes (Tr)	129	11	3	4	0
Jackie Marshall	41	5	2	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phoenix Jackson (Tr)	45	5	2	5	4
Caden Jenkins	25	0	0	0	4
Devin Turner (Tr)	51	2	0	0	3