Utah at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Utah -9.5 (60.5) (-360) Open: -9.5
Utah 55 - Baylor: 28 (Big 12)

Utes (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kyle Whittingham (167 - 86)
Avg Score : 41 - 19 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 2.1 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

UTAH coming off BYE
BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: Utah -14 (SP+ UTAH -20.5)
Projected Score: UTAH: 36 - BAY: 22 (58)
UTAH Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UTAH Travel: 1037 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTAH Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah at UCLA	-6.5	50.5	W 43 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah vs Cal Poly	-42.5	53.5	W 63 - 9	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah at Wyoming	-24.5	47.5	W 31 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah vs Texas Tech	-3.5	58.5	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/27	Utah at West Virginia	-13.5	46.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah vs Arizona State	-9.5	44.5	W 42 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Utah at BYU	-4.0	49.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/25	Utah vs Colorado	-14.5	50.5	W 53 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Utah vs Cincinnati	-11.5	57.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Utah at Baylor	-9.5	60.5	W 55 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah vs Kansas State	-18.5	52.5	W 51 - 47	O	N
Fri 11/28	Utah at Kansas	-10.5	59.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
Wed 12/31	Utah vs Nebraska	-13.5	51.5	W 44 - 22	O	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah's Schedule

Baylor's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Baylor vs Auburn	+1.5	57.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Baylor at SMU	+3.0	65.5	W 48 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Baylor vs Samford	-51.5	65.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/20	Baylor vs Arizona State	-3.0	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/27	Baylor at Oklahoma State	-21.0	58.5	W 45 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/4	Baylor vs Kansas State	-4.5	59.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Baylor at TCU	+3.5	66.5	L 36 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Baylor at Cincinnati	+3.5	68.5	L 20 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/1	Baylor vs UCF	-3.0	58.5	W 30 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Baylor vs Utah	+9.5	60.5	L 28 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/22	Baylor at Arizona	+6.5	61.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/29	Baylor vs Houston	-2.5	57.5	L 24 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTAH	#5 (.35)	49% (14)	41.3	51% (7)	3.56 (3)	249	46% (32)	193	4.95 (5)	#23 (.07)	39% (31)	18.9	43% (76)	34% (9)	2.84 (15)	46.1	0.9	1.3
BAY	#50 (.2)	45% (39)	31.1	47% (38)	3.09 (42)	142	44% (40)	310	3.69 (70)	#81 (.18)	44% (105)	32.6	46% (108)	43% (91)	4.3 (125)	61.4	2	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTAH	#120 (.08)	37% (125)		38% (116)	2.73 (114)	130	35% (119)	199	3.4 (111)	#7 (.05)	35% (4)		37% (10)	34% (6)	3.13 (15)	46.3	1.8	1.5
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)		46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)		38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTAH Offense	13	41.3	38.2	48.6%	4.95	0.9	23	442	249	193	6.1	56%	44%	51%	46%	12%	.35
BAY Defense	12	32.6	27.9	44.3%	4.3	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	56%	42%	46%	43%	12%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTAH Defense	13	18.9	17.2	38.7%	2.84	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	43%	34%	17%	.07
BAY Offense	12	31.1	29.6	45%	3.69	2	25	451	142	310	4.2	40%	59%	47%	44%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah	13	28:36	23.5	53%	64%	5.6	46.1	0.9	1.3	5.8	2.4	4	28.5
Baylor	12	29:15	24.8	38%	53%	6	61.4	2	0.9	4	1	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTAH Offense	13	56% (25)	51% (7)	40.6	249.2	6.1	37 (11)	.35 (2)	3.56 (3)	81% (11)	7% (15)	1.1 (16)
BAY Defense	12	56% (129)	46% (108)	-	-	-	-	.14 (92)	3.15 (111)	89% (134)	7% (131)	0.96 (69)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTAH Defense	13	51% (81)	43% (76)	-	-	-	-	.17 (108)	2.88 (70)	73% (79)	10% (57)	1.1 (123)
BAY Offense	12	40% (129)	47% (38)	34.1	141.6	4.2	12 (88)	.17 (43)	3.09 (42)	77% (33)	8% (38)	0.9 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTAH Offense	13	44% (103)	46% (32)	16.5	26.3	192.8	7.3	11.7	25 (33)	5 (34)	.36 (36)	1.5 (86)	29% (25)	39% (7)	.61 (3)	5% (39)	2.1 (54)
BAY Defense	12	42% (9)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.25 (72)	1.4 (14)	28% (123)	29% (64)	.24 (52)	6% (87)	1.7 (8)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTAH Defense	13	47% (46)	34% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (38)	.02 (4)	1.7 (124)	33% (48)	26% (21)	.09 (6)	7% (14)	2.2 (121)
BAY Offense	12	59% (8)	44% (40)	25.8	42.5	309.6	7.3	12	31 (3)	12 (88)	.25 (69)	1.5 (80)	31% (58)	33% (30)	.42 (28)	6% (84)	2.1 (34)

Utah's Power Ratings
Utah's Power Rating: 21.83 #14
Utah's Offense Rating: 22.48 #15
Utah's Defense Rating: 0.65 #31
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 13% #36
Utah's 2025 Expected Record: 10.9 - 2.1
Utah's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.4 #10
Utah's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #11
Utah's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #21

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah: 21.83 Baylor: 7.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah: 21.4 Baylor: 0.7

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 7.505 #44
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.84 #35
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.53 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.7 #69
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #30
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah Scoring
Offense: 41.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.2

Utah's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Utah 36
Baylor 22

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah 27
Baylor 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Utah 35
Baylor 24

Total Points: 59

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Baylor	28	Utah	55	Utah -9.5	Utah	60.5	Over
2024	09/07	Utah	23	Baylor	12	Utah -14.5	Baylor	52.5	Under
2023	09/09	Baylor	13	Utah	20	Utah -7	NA	46.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	0	1	1 Overs
Utah	3	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#14) UTAH at (#44) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTAH	BAY
Power RatePwr	#14	#44
SP+SP+	#10	#69
Perf GradeGrade	#22	#77
OffenseOff	#26	#57
DefenseDef	#46	#101
Spec TeamsST	#25	#11
TalentTal	#66	#24
Blue ChipsBC%	#36	#49

Utah Notes(10/29) QB Devon Dampier will play vs Cincy
(10/26) QB Byrd Ficklin (Fr) ran wild on Col, pass meh
(9/20) Killed by T Tech, Off awful, Dampier worse. Ugly
(9/20) Is Off any good or feasted on cupcakes early?
(7/22) RBs Parker (WSU) good, leads 4 portal adds
(7/22) WR rebuild. Top 2 from NM LY, 6 portal adds
(7/20) LB L Damuni has 4 years starting exp, hurt LY
(6/6) OL returns all 5 starters, top 5 unit in CFB
(5/27) QB Dampier (NM) full control of OC Beck's Off
(5/12) QB Dampier forced 54 missed tackles LY
(4/15) New OC Beck (NM) big improvement. Fun Off?
(4/4) OT Spencer Fano the #1 OT via PFF
Utah Injury Report

Baylor Notes(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report

Utah on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UTAH Off	BAY Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#101
SuccessSuc	#14	#105
ExplosiveExp	#51	#16
PPAPPA	#5	#81
PowerPwr	#15	#56
SP+SP+	#11	#108
Pts POPPO	#5	#125
HavocHav	#17	#127

Utah Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UTAH Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#11	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#108
Run ExplRExp	#16	#69
PPAExp	#2	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#3	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#125
TackleTak	-	#39

Utah Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UTAH Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#32	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#14
PPAExp	#36	#72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#9	#111
F7 HavocF7	#15	#131
DB HavocDB	#39	#87

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UTAH Def
Perf GradePerf	#57	#46
SuccessSuc	#39	#31
ExplosiveExp	#53	#115
PPAPPA	#50	#23
PowerPwr	#35	#31
SP+SP+	#30	#21
Pts POPPO	#70	#15
HavocHav	#57	#35

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UTAH Def
Run GameRun	#92	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#76
Run ExplRExp	#96	#123
PPAExp	#43	#108
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	#42	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#28	#58
TackleTak	-	#112

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	UTAH Def
Pass GamePass	#60	#66
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#80	#124
PPAExp	#69	#4
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#89	#28
F7 HavocF7	#38	#57
DB HavocDB	#84	#14

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UTAH 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 74° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Utah 9.5 (60.5)
Utah won at Baylor this year (55-28)

Previous Matchups
Utah beat Baylor last year (23-12)
Utah beat Baylor in 2023 (20-13)

UTAH's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devon Dampier (Tr)	193	303	64%	2180	22	5	7.2
Byrd Ficklin	21	35	60%	301	3	0	8.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Wayshawn Parker (Tr)	133	931	6	7.0	64
Devon Dampier (Tr)	127	687	7	5.4	59
Byrd Ficklin	56	503	10	9.0	74
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)	95	376	10	4.0	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Davis (Tr)	57	659	4	11.6	56
Dallen Bentley	42	514	5	12.2	44
JJ Buchanan	22	351	4	16.0	60
Larry Simmons (Tr)	14	271	6	19.4	48

View Utah's Full Roster

UTAH's DC Morgan Scalley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnathan Hall	61	6	3	0	4
Jackson Bennee	59	3	1	1	5
Tao Johnson	47	3	0	0	4
Lander Barton	47	4	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Henry Daley	45	18	12	0	1
Logan Fano	43	8	5	3	2
Kash Dillon	28	5	4	1	0
Johnathan Hall	61	6	3	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Smith Snowden	37	2	0	0	9
Blake Cotton (Tr)	22	2	0	0	7
Jackson Bennee	59	3	1	1	5

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	304	503	60%	3681	31	12	7.3
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	154	788	6	5.1	41
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
Joseph Dodds	26	104	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	69	872	9	12.6	48
Michael Trigg	50	694	6	13.9	42
Ashtyn Hawkins	53	621	0	11.7	41
Kole Wilson (Tr)	44	591	5	13.4	64

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Devyn Bobby	77	2	0	0	2
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Jackie Marshall	30	6	2	0	0
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Travion Barnes (Tr)	11	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	7
DJ Coleman	41	4	3	4
Caldra Williford (Tr)	16	1	0	4