Utah at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah logo   Utah Utes at Baylor Bears  Baylor logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Utah -9.5 (60.5) (-360)  Open: -9.5
Utah 55 - Baylor: 28  (Big 12)

 
Utes (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kyle Whittingham (167 - 86)
Avg Score : 41 - 19 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 2.1 (#13)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
UTAH coming off BYE
BAY coming off BYE
Our Line: Utah -9.5  (SP+ UTAH -21)

Projected Score: UTAH: 35 - BAY: 25 (60)
UTAH Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UTAH Travel: 1037 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Utah's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah at UCLA-6.550.5W 43 - 10OY
Sat 9/6 Utah vs Cal Poly-42.553.5W 63 - 9OY
Sat 9/13 Utah at Wyoming-24.547.5W 31 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 Utah vs Texas Tech-3.558.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 Utah at West Virginia-13.546.5W 48 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah vs Arizona State-9.544.5W 42 - 10OY
Sat 10/18 Utah at BYU-4.049.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Utah vs Colorado-14.550.5W 53 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Utah vs Cincinnati-11.557.5W 45 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Utah at Baylor-9.560.5W 55 - 28OY
Sat 11/22 Utah vs Kansas State-18.552.5W 51 - 47ON
Fri 11/28 Utah at Kansas-10.559.5W 31 - 21UN
Wed 12/31 Utah vs Nebraska-13.551.5W 44 - 22OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTAH#120 (.08)37% (125)41.338% (116)2.73 (114)13035% (119)1993.4 (111)#7 (.05)35% (4)18.937% (10)34% (6)3.13 (15)46.31.81.5
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)31.146% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)32.638% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTAH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTAH Offense1241.338.236.7%3.41.8173301301993.949%51%38%35%19%.08
BAY Defense1332.627.939.4%3.851.6 - - - - - 54%46%38%42%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTAH Defense1218.917.235.3%3.131.5 - - - - - 48%51%37%34%20%.05
BAY Offense1331.129.646.8%4.28121401174227552%48%46%48%12%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah1232:0616.633%45%5.446.31.81.56.41.9430.7
Baylor1325:4820.644%61%5.858.111.65.11.8231.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTAH Offense1249% (76)38% (116)33.6130.43.97 (131) (123)2.73 (114)66% (113)12% (117)0.88 (111)
BAY Defense1354% (107)38% (13) - - - - .11 (64)3.03 (74)82% (122)9% (84)1.03 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTAH Defense1248% (41)37% (10) - - - - .04 (25)2.53 (9)64% (22)12% (34)1.07 (105)
BAY Offense1352% (61)46% (37)35.1174.3523 (52).18 (41)3.19 (43)77% (42)7% (9)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTAH Offense1251% (58)35% (119)16.629.8199.46.71220 (58)17 (127).16 (106)1.7 (23)36% (127)24% (127).2 (110)7% (107)2.2 (22)
BAY Defense1346% (29)42% (78) - - - - - - 13 (31).26 (80)1.7 (99)34% (39)31% (77).38 (98)6% (80)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTAH Defense1251% (92)34% (6) - - - - - - 12 (39).09 (15)1.6 (74)37% (4)25% (8).09 (1)8% (4)2 (59)
BAY Offense1348% (75)48% (14)17.227.8227.18.213.229 (12)9 (48).37 (21)1.6 (49)29% (29)36% (24).37 (53)6% (55)2 (91)

Utah's Power Ratings
Utah's Power Rating: 15.66  #19
Utah's Offense Rating: 24.77  #11
Utah's Defense Rating: 9.11  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 13%  #36
Utah's 2025 Expected Record: 10.9 - 2.1
Utah's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.2  #8
Utah's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.7  #6
Utah's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.5  #17

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah: 15.66   Baylor: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah: 22.2   Baylor: 1.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.53  #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18  #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52  #43
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4  #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Utah Scoring
Offense: 41.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.2

Utah's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Utah 35
Baylor 25


Projected Total Points: 60
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Baylor28Utah55Utah -9.5Utah60.5Over
202409/07Utah23Baylor12Utah -14.5Baylor52.5Under
202309/09Baylor13Utah20Utah -7NA46.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor011 Overs
Utah312 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#19) UTAH at (#30) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTAHBAY
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #19 #30
SP+SP+ #8 #71
Perf GradeGrade #18 #78
OffenseOff #18 #61
DefenseDef #50 #100
Spec TeamsST #27 #5
TalentTal #66 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #36 #49
Utah Notes
(10/29) QB Devon Dampier will play vs Cincy
(10/26) QB Byrd Ficklin (Fr) ran wild on Col, pass meh
(9/20) Killed by T Tech, Off awful, Dampier worse. Ugly
(9/20) Is Off any good or feasted on cupcakes early?
(7/22) RBs Parker (WSU) good, leads 4 portal adds
(7/22) WR rebuild. Top 2 from NM LY, 6 portal adds
(7/20) LB L Damuni has 4 years starting exp, hurt LY
(6/6) OL returns all 5 starters, top 5 unit in CFB
(5/27) QB Dampier (NM) full control of OC Beck's Off
(5/12) QB Dampier forced 54 missed tackles LY
(4/15) New OC Beck (NM) big improvement. Fun Off?
(4/4) OT Spencer Fano the #1 OT via PFF
Utah Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Utah on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
UTAH OffBAY Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #18 #100
SuccessSuc #125 #38
ExplosiveExp #55 #102
PPAPPA #120 #74
PowerPwr #11 #43
SP+SP+ #6 #110
Pts POPPO #111 #77
HavocHav #120 #83
Utah Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
UTAH OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #12 #115
Run SuccessRSuc #116 #13
Run ExplRExp #111 #92
PPAExp #123 #64
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLY #114 #74
Stuff RateStuff #123 #90
TackleTak -  #38
Utah Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
UTAH OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #31 #45
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #78
Pass ExplPExl #23 #99
PPAExp #106 #80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #8 #124
F7 HavocF7 #117 #84
DB HavocDB #107 #80
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffUTAH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #50
SuccessSuc #23 #4
ExplosiveExp #49 #104
PPAPPA #29 #7
PowerPwr #20 #39
SP+SP+ #32 #17
Pts POPPO #30 #15
HavocHav #17 #12
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffUTAH Def
Run GameRun #92 #87
Run SuccessRSuc #37 #10
Run ExplRExp #50 #105
PPAExp #41 #25
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #9
Stuff RateStuff #13 #3
TackleTak -  #113
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffUTAH Def
Pass GamePass #71 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #6
Pass ExplPExl #49 #74
PPAExp #21 #15
Pass Block/RushP Blk #84 #42
F7 HavocF7 #9 #34
DB HavocDB #55 #4
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UTAH 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Utah 9.5 (60.5)
Utah won at Baylor this year (55-28)

Previous Matchups
Utah beat Baylor last year (55-28)
Utah beat Baylor in 2024 (23-12)
Utah beat Baylor in 2023 (20-13)

  
UTAH's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devon Dampier (Tr)21233464%24902457.5
Byrd Ficklin213560%301308.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayshawn Parker (Tr)14998166.664
Devon Dampier (Tr)146835105.759
Byrd Ficklin61513108.474
NaQuari Rogers (Tr)98387113.923
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Davis (Tr)62725411.756
Dallen Bentley48620612.945
JJ Buchanan26427516.460
Larry Simmons (Tr)15280618.748

View Utah's Full Roster

UTAH's DC Morgan Scalley (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnathan Hall636314
Jackson Bennee624125
Lander Barton514221
Tao Johnson503004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Henry Daley45181201
Logan Fano438532
Kash Dillon325410
Johnathan Hall636314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Smith Snowden372009
Blake Cotton (Tr)272007
Jackson Bennee624125

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004